More Like this

1. Coupled dynamics of behaviour and disease contagion among antagonistic groups

   https://doi.org/10.1017/ehs.2021.22  

   Smaldino, Paul E. ; Jones, James Holland ( January 2021 , Evolutionary Human Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Disease transmission and behaviour change are both fundamentally social phenomena. Behaviour change can have profound consequences for disease transmission, and epidemic conditions can favour the more rapid adoption of behavioural innovations. We analyse a simple model of coupled behaviour change and infection in a structured population characterised by homophily and outgroup aversion. Outgroup aversion slows the rate of adoption and can lead to lower rates of adoption in the later-adopting group or even behavioural divergence between groups when outgroup aversion exceeds positive ingroup influence. When disease dynamics are coupled to the behaviour-adoption model, a wide variety of outcomes are possible. Homophily can either increase or decrease the final size of the epidemic depending on its relative strength in the two groups and on R 0 for the infection. For example, if the first group is homophilous and the second is not, the second group will have a larger epidemic. Homophily and outgroup aversion can also produce dynamics suggestive of a ‘second wave’ in the first group that follows the peak of the epidemic in the second group. Our simple model reveals dynamics that are suggestive of the processes currently observed under pandemic conditions in culturally and/or politically polarised populations such as the USA. 

   more » « less
2. Observations and conversations: how communities learn about infection risk can impact the success of non-pharmaceutical interventions against epidemics

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12353-9  

   Silk, Matthew J. ; Carrignon, Simon ; Bentley, R. Alexander ; Fefferman, Nina H. ( December 2022 , BMC Public Health)

   Abstract Background Individual behavioural decisions are responses to a person’s perceived social norms that could be shaped by both their physical and social environment. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these environments correspond to epidemiological risk from contacts and the social construction of risk by communication within networks of friends. Understanding the circumstances under which the influence of these different social networks can promote the acceptance of non-pharmaceutical interventions and consequently the adoption of protective behaviours is critical for guiding useful, practical public health messaging. Methods We explore how information from both physical contact and social communication layers of a multiplex network can contribute to flattening the epidemic curve in a community. Connections in the physical contact layer represent opportunities for transmission, while connections in the communication layer represent social interactions through which individuals may gain information, e.g. messaging friends. Results We show that maintaining focus on awareness of risk among each individual’s physical contacts promotes the greatest reduction in disease spread, but only when an individual is aware of the symptoms of a non-trivial proportion of their physical contacts (~ ≥ 20%). Information from the social communication layer without was less useful when these connections matched less well with physical contacts and contributed little in combination with accurate information from physical contacts. Conclusions We conclude that maintaining social focus on local outbreak status will allow individuals to structure their perceived social norms appropriately and respond more rapidly when risk increases. Finding ways to relay accurate local information from trusted community leaders could improve mitigation even where more intrusive/costly strategies, such as contact-tracing, are not possible. 

   more » « less
3. Trajectory of individual immunity and vaccination required for SARS-CoV-2 community immunity: a conceptual investigation

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0683  

   Saad-Roy, Chadi M. ; Levin, Simon A. ; Metcalf, C. Jessica ; Grenfell, Bryan T. ( February 2021 , Journal of The Royal Society Interface)

   null (Ed.)

   SARS-CoV-2 is an international public health emergency; high transmissibility and morbidity and mortality can result in the virus overwhelming health systems. Combinations of social distancing, and test, trace, and isolate strategies can reduce the number of new infections per infected individual below 1, thus driving declines in case numbers, but may be both challenging and costly. These interventions must also be maintained until development and (now likely) mass deployment of a vaccine (or therapeutics), since otherwise, many susceptible individuals are still at risk of infection. We use a simple analytical model to explore how low levels of infection, combined with vaccination, determine the trajectory to community immunity. Understanding the repercussions of the biological characteristics of the viral life cycle in this scenario is of considerable importance. We provide a simple description of this process by modelling the scenario where the effective reproduction number R eff is maintained at 1. Since the additional complexity imposed by the strength and duration of transmission-blocking immunity is not yet clear, we use our framework to probe the impact of these uncertainties. Through intuitive analytical relations, we explore how the necessary magnitude of vaccination rates and mitigation efforts depends crucially on the durations of natural and vaccinal immunity. We also show that our framework can encompass seasonality or preexisting immunity due to epidemic dynamics prior to strong mitigation measures. Taken together, our simple conceptual model illustrates the importance of individual and vaccinal immunity for community immunity, and that the quantification of individuals immunized against SARS-CoV-2 is paramount. 

   more » « less
4. Simulated infection alters the behavior of pair bonded songbirds and their healthy neighbors

   https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arac120  

   Love, Ashley C. ; Anthony, Anna C. ; Nash, Aimee ; Campos-Melara, Angel ; Kodali, Jahnavi ; DuRant, Sarah E. ; Ridley, ed., Amanda ( February 2023 , Behavioral Ecology)

   While infection and perceived infection risk can influence social and reproductive behavior in several taxa, relatively little is known about how infection specifically affects pair bond behaviors. Some pair bond maintenance behaviors may be costly to maintain during infection, and infection could promote avoidance behaviors within an established pair. Many species exhibiting pair bonds are part of larger social groups, and behavioral shifts in established pairs can result in altered extra-pair contact rates that could also shape disease transmission. Using captive zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata), we examined how an immune challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) influences activity, social behavior, and pair bond maintenance behaviors in established pairs and their healthy neighbors. We observed shifts in individual and pair maintenance behaviors in both immune-challenged pairs and healthy pairs exposed to a social cue of infection (sick conspecifics). Specifically, LPS-challenged birds decreased activity and social interaction attempts relative to control birds, consistent with LPS-induced sickness behavior. LPS-challenged birds also increased the frequency of clumping (perching together in bodily contact) between individuals within a pair. Healthy birds exposed to immune-challenged conspecifics decreased flight activity and increased self-preening, behaviors which could function to limit infection risk. Exploring how both infection and the perceived risk of infection shape behaviors within and among paired individuals will increase our understanding of the role of social behaviors in shaping disease dynamics.

    

   more » « less
5. Sociocultural determinants of global mask-wearing behavior

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213525119  

   Yang, Luojun ; Constantino, Sara M. ; Grenfell, Bryan T. ; Weber, Elke U. ; Levin, Simon A. ; Vasconcelos, Vítor V. ( October 2022 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Behavioral responses influence the trajectories of epidemics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduced pathogen transmission and mortality worldwide. However, despite the global pandemic threat, there was substantial cross-country variation in the adoption of protective behaviors that is not explained by disease prevalence alone. In particular, many countries show a pattern of slow initial mask adoption followed by sharp transitions to high acceptance rates. These patterns are characteristic of behaviors that depend on social norms or peer influence. We develop a game-theoretic model of mask wearing where the utility of wearing a mask depends on the perceived risk of infection, social norms, and mandates from formal institutions. In this model, increasing pathogen transmission or policy stringency can trigger social tipping points in collective mask wearing. We show that complex social dynamics can emerge from simple individual interactions and that sociocultural variables and local policies are important for recovering cross-country variation in the speed and breadth of mask adoption. These results have implications for public health policy and data collection. 

   more » « less