skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Lake-effect rains over Lake Victoria and their association with Mesoscale Convective Systems
Abstract This article examined rainfall enhancement over Lake Victoria. Estimates of over-lake rainfall were compared with rainfall in the surrounding lake catchment. Four satellite products were initially tested against estimates based on gauges or water balance models. These included TRMM 3B43, IMERG V06 Final Run (IMERG-F), CHIRPS2, and PERSIANN-CDR. There was agreement among the satellite products for catchment rainfall but a large disparity among them for over-lake rainfall. IMERG-F was clearly an outlier, exceeding the estimate from TRMM 3B43 by 36%. The overestimation by IMERG-F was likely related to passive microwave assessments of strong convection, such as prevails over Lake Victoria. Overall, TRMM 3B43 showed the best agreement with the "ground truth" and was used in further analyses. Over-lake rainfall was found to be enhanced compared to catchment rainfall in all months. During the March-to-May long rains the enhancement varied between 40% and 50%. During the October-to-December short rains the enhancement varied between 33% and 44%. Even during the two dry seasons the enhancement was at least 20% and over 50% in some months. While the magnitude of enhancement varied from month to month, the seasonal cycle was essentially the same for over-lake and catchment rainfall, suggesting that the dominant influence on over-lake rainfall is the large-scale environment. The association with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) was also evaluated. The similarity of the spatial patterns of rainfall and MCS count each month suggested that these produced a major share of rainfall over the lake. Similarity in interannual variability further supported this conclusion.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1850661
PAR ID:
10440931
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Hydrometeorology
ISSN:
1525-755X
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; (, Journal of Hydrometeorology)
    Abstract This article examines the diurnal cycle of lake-effect rains over Lake Victoria and of rainfall in the surrounding catchment. The analysis focuses on four months, which represent the two wet seasons (April and November) and the two dry seasons (February and July). Lake-effect rains are strongest in April, weakest in July. In all cases there is a nocturnal rainfall maximum over the lake and a daytime maximum over the catchment, with the transition between rainfall over the lake and over the catchment occurring between 1200 and 1500 LST. During the night the surrounding catchment is mostly dry. Conversely, little to no rain falls over the lake during the afternoon and early evening. In most cases the maximum over the lake occurs at either 0600 or 0900 LST and the maximum over the catchment occurs around 1500 to 1800 LST. The diurnal cycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) parallels that of over-lake rainfall. MCS initiation generally begins over the catchment around 1500 LST and increases at 1800 LST. MCS initiation over the lake begins around 0300 LST and continues until 1200 LST. While some MCSs originate over the highlands to the east of the lake, most originate in situ over the lake. Maximum MCS activity over the lake occurs at 0600 LST and is associated with the systems that initiate in situ . 
    more » « less
  2. ; (, Remote Sensing)
    This article examines the reliability of satellite and reanalysis estimates of rainfall in the Congo Basin and over Lake Victoria and its catchment. Nine satellite products and five reanalysis products are considered. They are assessed by way of inter-comparison and by comparison with observational data sets. The three locations considered include a region with little observational gauge data (the Congo), a region with extensive gauge data (Lake Victoria catchment), and an inland water body. Several important results emerge: for one, the diversity of estimates is generally very large, except for the Lake Victoria catchment. Reanalysis products show little relationship with observed rainfall or with the satellite estimates, and thus should not be used to assess rainfall in these regions. Most of the products either overestimate or underestimate rainfall over the lake. The diversity of estimates makes it difficult to assess the factors governing the interannual variability of rainfall in these regions. This is shown by way of correlation with sea-surface temperatures, particularly with the Niño 3.4 temperatures and with the Dipole Mode Index over the Indian Ocean. Some guidance is given as to the best products to utilize. Overall, any user must establish that the is product reliable in the region studied. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, Journal of Hydrometeorology)
    Abstract The purpose of this article is to determine the meteorological factors controlling the lake-effect rains over Lake Victoria. Winds, divergence, vertical motion, specific humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and Convective Inhibition (CIN) were examined. The local wind regime and associated divergence/convergence are the major factors determining the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the lake and catchment. The major contrast between over-lake rainfall in the wet- and dry-season months is the vertical profile of omega. This appears to be a result of seasonal contrasts in CAPE, CIN, and specific humidity, parameters that play a critical role in vertical motion and convective development. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; (, Geocarto International)
    In this study, a comparative analysis of three satellite precipitation products including Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43 V7), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS V2) with ground-measured Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation data were performed to estimate the meteorological drought in the Bundelkhand region of Central India. The high-resolution CHIRPS data showed the closest agreement with the IMD precipitation and well captured the drought characteristics. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) identified seven major droughts events during the period of 1981 to 2016. Appropriate calibration and validation were performed for drought forecasting using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The forecasting result showed a reasonably good agreement with the observed datasets with the one-month lead time. The outcomes of this study have policy level implications for drought monitoring and preparedness in this region. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; (, Scientific Drilling)
    Abstract. Lake Victoria, which is bordered by Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, and has a catchment that extends to Rwanda and Burundi, is home to the largest human population surrounding any lake in the world and provides critical resources across eastern Africa. Lake Victoria is also the world's largest tropical lake by surface area, but it is relatively shallow and without a major inlet, making it very sensitive to changes in climate, and especially hydroclimate. Furthermore, its size creates abundant habitats for aquatic fauna, including the iconic hyper-diverse cichlids, and serves as a major geographic barrier to terrestrial fauna across equatorial Africa. Given Lake Victoria's importance to the eastern African region, its sensitivity to climate, and its influences on terrestrial and aquatic faunal evolution and dispersal, it is vital to understand the connection between the lake and regional climate and how the lake size, shape, and depth have changed through its depositional history. This information can only be ascertained by collecting a complete archive of Lake Victoria's sedimentary record. To evaluate the Lake Victoria basin as a potential drilling target, ∼ 50 scientists from 10 countries met in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in July 2022 for the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP)-sponsored Lake Victoria Drilling Project (LVDP) workshop. Discussions of the main scientific objectives for a future drilling project included (1) recovering the Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary records of Lake Victoria that document the dynamic nature of the lake, including multiple lacustrine and paleosol sequences; (2) establishing the chronology of recovered sediments, including using extensive tephra fingerprinting and other techniques from deposits in the region; (3) reconstructing past climate, environment, lacustrine conditions, and aquatic fauna, using an integrated multi-proxy approach, combined with climate and hydrologic modeling; and (4) connecting new records with existing sedimentary snapshots and fossils exposed in deposits around the lake, tying archaeological, paleontological, sedimentological, tectonic, and volcanic findings to new drilling results. The LVDP provides an innovative way to address critical geological, paleontological, climatological, and evolutionary biological questions about Quaternary to modern landscapes and ecosystems in eastern Africa. Importantly, this project affords an excellent opportunity to help develop conservation and management strategies for regional responses to current and future changes in climate, land use, fisheries, and resiliency of at-risk communities in equatorial Africa. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email