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Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food–web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator–prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food–web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food–webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food–web interactions and allometry may overestimate species' tendency to track climate change.
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Continuous assembly required: Perpetual species turnover in two‐trophic‐level ecosystems
Abstract Community assembly is often treated as deterministic, converging on one or at most a few possible stable endpoints. However, in nature, we typically observe continuous change in community composition, which is often ascribed to environmental change. But continuous changes in community composition can also arise in deterministic, time‐invariant community models, especially food web models. Our goal was to determine why some models produce continuous assembly and others do not. We investigated a simple two‐trophic‐level community model to show that continuous assembly is driven by the relative niche width of the trophic levels. If predators have a larger niche width than prey, community assembly converges to a stable equilibrium. Conversely, if predators have a smaller niche width than prey, then community composition never stabilizes. Evidence that food webs need not reach a stable equilibrium has important implications, as many ecological theories of community ecology based on equilibria may be difficult to apply to such food webs.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1933497
- PAR ID:
- 10441455
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecosphere
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2150-8925
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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