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1. Modeling the Contribution of Agriculture Towards Soil Nitrogen Surplus in Iowa.

   https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77970-2_20  

   Raul, V.; Liu, YC.; Leifsson, L.; Kaleita, A. (June 2021, Computational Science – ICCS 2021. ICCS 2021. Lecture Notes in Computer Science)

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   The Midwest state of Iowa in the US is one of the major producers of corn, soybean, ethanol, and animal products, and has long been known as a significant contributor of nitrogen loads to the Mississippi river basin, supplying the nutrient-rich water to the Gulf of Mexico. Nitrogen is the principal contributor to the formation of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a significant detrimental environmental impact. Agriculture, animal agriculture, and ethanol production are deeply connected to Iowa’s economy. Thus, with increasing ethanol production, high yield agriculture practices, growing animal agriculture, and the related economy, there is a need to understand the interrelationship of Iowa’s food-energy-water system to alleviate its impact on the environment and economy through improved policy and decision making. In this work, the Iowa food-energy-water (IFEW) system model is proposed that describes its interrelationship. Further, a macro-scale nitrogen export model of the agriculture and animal agriculture systems is developed. Global sensitivity analysis of the nitrogen export model reveals that the commercial nitrogen-based fertilizer application rate for corn production and corn yield are the two most influential factors affecting the surplus nitrogen in the soil. 

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2. Heavy Precipitation Impacts on Nitrogen Loading to the Gulf of Mexico in the 21st Century: Model Projections Under Future Climate Scenarios

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002141  

   Zhang, Jien; Lu, Chaoqun; Crumpton, William; Jones, Christopher; Tian, Hanqin; Villarini, Gabriele; Schilling, Keith; Green, David (April 2022, Earth's Future)

   Abstract While spatial heterogeneity of riverine nitrogen (N) loading is predominantly driven by the magnitude of basin‐wide anthropogenic N input, the temporal dynamics of N loading are closely related to the amount and timing of precipitation. However, existing studies do not disentangle the contributions of heavy precipitation versus non‐heavy precipitation predicted by future climate scenarios. Here, we explore the potential responses of N loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin to precipitation changes using a well‐calibrated hydro‐ecological model and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. With present agricultural production and management practices, N loading could increase up to 30% by the end of the 21st century under future climate scenarios, half of which would be driven by heavy precipitation. Particularly, the RCP8.5 scenario, in which heavy precipitation and drought events become more frequent, would increase N loading disproportionately to projected increases in river discharge. N loading in spring would contribute 41% and 51% of annual N loading increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, most of which is related to higher N yield due to increases in heavy precipitation. Anthropogenic N inputs would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and the Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. Our results imply that future climate change alone, including more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, would increase N loading and intensify the eutrophication of the Gulf of Mexico over this coming century. More effective nutrient management interventions are needed to reverse this trend. 

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3. Effects of climate and winter cover crops on nutrient loss in agricultural watersheds in the midwestern U.S.

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03656-4  

   Hamlet, Alan F; Ehsani, Nima; Tank, Jennifer L; Silver, Zachariah; Byun, Kyuhyun; Mahl, Ursula H; Speir, Shannon L; Trentman, Matt T; Royer, Todd V (January 2024, Climatic Change)

   Nutrient runoff from agricultural regions of the midwestern U.S. corn belt has degraded water quality in many inland and coastal water bodies such as the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico. Under current climate, observational studies have shown that winter cover crops can reduce dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus losses from row-cropped agricultural watersheds, but performance of cover crops in response to climate variability and climate change has not been systematically evaluated. Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, calibrated using multiple years of field-based data, we simulated historical and projected future nutrient loss from two representative agricultural watersheds in northern Indiana, USA. For 100% cover crop coverage, historical simulations showed a 31–33% reduction in nitrate (NO3−) loss and a 15–23% reduction in Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) loss in comparison with a no-cover-crop baseline. Under climate change scenarios, without cover crops, projected warmer and wetter conditions strongly increased nutrient loss, especially in the fallow period from Oct to Apr when changes in infiltration and runoff are largest. In the absence of cover crops, annual nutrient losses for the RCP8.5 2080s scenario were 26–38% higher for NO3−, and 9–46% higher for SRP. However, the effectiveness of cover crops also increased under climate change. For an ensemble of 60 climate change scenarios based on CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 19 out of 24 ensemble-mean simulations of future nutrient loss with 100% cover crops were less than or equal to historical simulations with 100% cover crops, despite systematic increases in nutrient loss due to climate alone. These results demonstrate that planting winter cover crops over row-cropped land areas constitutes a robust climate change adaptation strategy for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural lands, enhancing resilience to a projected warmer and wetter winter climate in the midwestern U.S. 

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4. US climate policy yields water quality cobenefits in the Mississippi Basin and Gulf of Mexico

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2302087120  

   Zuidema, Shan; Liu, Jing; Chepeliev, Maksym G.; Johnson, David R.; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Frolking, Steve; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Hertel, Thomas W. (October 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   We utilize a coupled economy–agroecology–hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government’s social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO₂-equivalents) to fossil fuel–based CO₂emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits. 

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5. A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest

   Zhou, W. (August 2021, Weather and climate extremes)

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   Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are expected to increase with global climate change, with more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting extreme events, posing greater challenges for the security of global food production. Here we proposed a generic framework to assess the impact of climate-induced crop yield risk under both current and future scenarios by combining a stochastic model for synthetic climate generation with a well-validated statistical crop yield model. The synthetic climate patterns were generated using the extended Empirical Orthogonal Function method based on historically observed and projected climate conditions. We applied our framework to assess the corn and soybean yield risk in the U.S. Midwest for historical and future climate conditions. We found that: (1) in the U.S. Midwest, about 45% and 40% of the interannual variability in corn and soybean yield, respectively, can be explained by the climate; (2) the risk level is higher in the southwest and northwest regions of the U.S. Midwest corresponding to 25% yield reduction for both corn and soybean compared to other regions; (3) the severity for the 1988 and 2012 major droughts quantified by our method represent 21-year and 30-year events for corn, and 7-year and 12-year events for soybean, respectively; (4) the crop yield risk will increase under a future climate scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 or RCP 8.5 at 2050) compared with the current climate condition, with averaged yield decreases and yield variability increases for both corn and soybean. The framework and the results of this study enable applications for risk management policies and practices for the agriculture sectors. 

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