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Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.
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Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region
We explore sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region under a range of techno-economic, infrastructural, and policy forces. The MERCOSUR sub-region includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay, which represent key electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics on the continent. We use a power system planning model to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results show that, under business-as-usual conditions, wind and solar contribute more than half of new generation capacity by 2050, though this requires substantial expansion of natural gas-based capacity. While new hydropower appears to be less cost-competitive, the existing high capacity of hydropower provides critically important flexibility to integrate the wind and solar and to avoid further reliance on more expensive or polluting resources (e.g., natural gas). Over 90% emission cut by 2050 could be facilitated mostly by enhanced integration (predominantly after 2040) of wind, solar, and battery storage with 11%–28% additional cost, whereas enhanced expansion of hydropower reduces the cost of low-carbon transition, suggesting trade-off opportunities between saving costs and environment in selecting the clean energy resources. Achieving high emission reduction goals will also require enhanced sub-regional electricity trade, which could be mostly facilitated by existing interconnection capacities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1855982
- PAR ID:
- 10442305
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Energy strategy reviews
- Volume:
- 49
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2211-4688
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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