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1. Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

   Chowdhury, A.F.M. Kamal (September 2023, Energy strategy reviews)

   We explore sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region under a range of techno-economic, infrastructural, and policy forces. The MERCOSUR sub-region includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay, which represent key electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics on the continent. We use a power system planning model to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results show that, under business-as-usual conditions, wind and solar contribute more than half of new generation capacity by 2050, though this requires substantial expansion of natural gas-based capacity. While new hydropower appears to be less cost-competitive, the existing high capacity of hydropower provides critically important flexibility to integrate the wind and solar and to avoid further reliance on more expensive or polluting resources (e.g., natural gas). Over 90% emission cut by 2050 could be facilitated mostly by enhanced integration (predominantly after 2040) of wind, solar, and battery storage with 11%–28% additional cost, whereas enhanced expansion of hydropower reduces the cost of low-carbon transition, suggesting trade-off opportunities between saving costs and environment in selecting the clean energy resources. Achieving high emission reduction goals will also require enhanced sub-regional electricity trade, which could be mostly facilitated by existing interconnection capacities. 

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2. On Efficient Aggregation of Distributed Energy Resources

   https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC45484.2021.9683117  

   Gao, Zuguang; Alshehri, Khaled; Birge, John R. (December 2021, 2021 60th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC))

   The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs) is one of the most significant changes to electricity systems around the world. Examples of DERs include solar panels, small natural gas-fueled generators, combined heat and power plants, etc. Due to the small supply capacities of these DERs, it is impractical for them to participate directly in the wholesale electricity market. We study in this paper an efficient aggregation model where a profit-maximizing aggregator procures electricity from DERs, and sells them in the wholesale market. The interaction between the aggregator and the DER owners is modeled as a Stackelberg game: the aggregator adopts two-part pricing by announcing a participation fee and a per-unit price of procurement for each DER owner, and the DER owner responds by choosing her payoff-maximizing energy supplies. We show that our proposed model preserves full market efficiency, i.e., the social welfare achieved by the aggregation model is the same as that when DERs participate directly in the wholesale market. 

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3. Regional Reconstruction of Po River Basin (Italy) Streamflow

   https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9100163  

   Formetta, Giuseppe; Tootle, Glenn; Therrell, Matthew (October 2022, Hydrology)

   The Po River Basin (PRB) is Italy’s largest river system and provides a vital water supply source for varying demands, including agriculture, energy (hydropower), and water supply. The current (2022) drought has been associated with low winter–early spring (2021–2022) snow accumulation in higher elevations (European Alps) and a lack of late spring–early summer (2022) precipitation, resulting in deficit PRB streamflow. Many local scientists are now estimating a 50- to 100-year (return period) drought for 2022. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial periods would provide important information to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for thirteen gauges that were spatially located across the PRB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) data for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, this dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct PRB regional streamflow. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was applied to PRB streamflow gauges and gridded scPDSI data for two periods of record, referred to as the short period of record (SPOR), 1980 to 2012 (33 years), and the long period of record (LPOR), 1967 to 2012 (46 years). SVD serves as both a data reduction technique, identifying significant scPDSI grid points within the selected 450 km search radius, and develops a single vector that represents the regional PRB streamflow variability. Due to the high intercorrelations of PRB streamflow gauges, the SVD-generated PRB regional streamflow vector was used as the dependent variable in regression models for both the SPOR and LPOR, while the significant scPDSI grid points (cells) identified by SVD were used as the independent variables. This resulted in two highly skillful regional reconstructions of PRB streamflow from 0 to 2012. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent historical record, and several of these droughts aligned with paleo streamflow reconstructions of neighboring European watersheds. Future research will utilize the PRB reconstructions to quantify the current (2022) drought, providing a first-time paleo-perspective of drought frequency in the watershed. 

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4. Climate Change Increases Energy Demand and Cost in Texas

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-24-0057.1  

   Dessler, A E (April 2025, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   This study focuses on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market in Texas and demonstrates how the increase in temperature due to climate change is already driving large increases in electricity demand and total electricity costs. Results show that, compared to a 1950–80 baseline climate, electricity demand in 2023 was 1.9 GW (3.9%) higher because of the extreme temperatures of that year—climate change contributed 47% of this increase, with the rest coming from short-term climate variability. As demand increases, so does the price per unit of electricity, so consumers are hit double: They must buy more electricity, and each unit of electricity costs more. Using data from the wholesale market, we estimate that the total cost of electricity (the combination of higher demand and higher per unit prices) increased by $7.6B in 2023 compared to the baseline climate, $290 per ERCOT customer, with most of this increase occurring during the summer. Climate change contributed about 29% of this ($2.2B, $83 per customer), while short-term variability contributed the rest. About two-thirds of this increase is due to price increases triggered when the ERCOT grid becomes constrained. Investments in increasing the power supply or the ability to transmit it across the state, or reducing demand (e.g., demand response), could substantially reduce the impact of increasing temperature on the cost of electricity in Texas. Significance StatementQuantifying the impacts of warmer temperatures due to climate change on society is a key goal of the climate science community. In this paper, we develop a methodology for calculating the cost of increased temperatures on electricity consumption. We show that climate change is driving up the costs of electricity in Texas. Compared to the climate of the mid-twentieth century, electricity demand was 4.1% higher in 2023, with climate change responsible for about half of this increase. This increased the total cost of electricity by $7.6 billion, $290 per person. Climate change contributed about 29% of this extra cost, representing a significant burden on the poorest in our society. 

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5. The Energy Trade-Offs of Transitioning to a Locally Sourced Water Supply Portfolio in the City of Los Angeles

   https://doi.org/10.3390/en13215589  

   Zohrabian, Angineh; Sanders, Kelly T. (November 2020, Energies)

   null (Ed.)

   Predicting the energy needs of future water systems is important for coordinating long-term energy and water management plans, as both systems are interrelated. We use the case study of the Los Angeles City’s Department of Water and Power (LADWP), located in a densely populated, environmentally progressive, and water-poor region, to highlight the trade-offs and tensions that can occur in balancing priorities related to reliable water supply, energy demand for water and greenhouse gas emissions. The city is on its path to achieving higher fractions of local water supplies through the expansion of conservation, water recycling and stormwater capture to replace supply from imported water. We analyze scenarios to simulate a set of future local water supply adoption pathways under average and dry weather conditions, across business as usual and decarbonized grid scenarios. Our results demonstrate that an aggressive local water supply expansion could impact the geospatial distribution of electricity demand for water services, which could place a greater burden on LADWP’s electricity system over the next two decades, although the total energy consumed for the utility’s water supply might not be significantly changed. A decomposition analysis of the major factors driving electricity demand suggests that in most scenarios, a structural change in LADWP’s portfolio of water supply sources affects the electricity demanded for water more than increases in population or water conservation. 

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