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Abstract The area burned in the western United States during the 2020 fire season was the greatest in the modern era. Here we show that the number of human‐caused fires in 2020 also was elevated, nearly 20% higher than the 1992–2019 average. Although anomalously dry conditions enabled ignitions to spread and contributed to record area burned, these conditions alone do not explain the surge in the number of human‐caused ignitions. We argue that behavioral shifts aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID‐19 altered human‐environment interactions to favor increased ignitions. For example, the number of recreation‐caused wildfires during summer was 36% greater than the 1992–2019 average; this increase was likely a function of increased outdoor recreational activity in response to social distancing measures. We hypothesize that the combination of anomalously dry conditions and COVID‐19 social disruptions contributed to widespread increases in human‐caused ignitions, adding complexity to fire management efforts during the 2020 western US fire season. Knowledge of how social behavior changes indirectly contributed to the increased number of ignitions in the 2020 wildfire season can help inform resource management in an increasingly flammable world.
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Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires
Abstract Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States (“West”), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999–2009 and 2010–2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes—characteristics of fire over space and time—are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1655121
- PAR ID:
- 10442427
- Editor(s):
- Liu, Junguo
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PNAS Nexus
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2752-6542
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005
