skip to main content


Title: Increased Variability of Biomass Burning Emissions in CMIP6 Amplifies Hydrologic Cycle in the CESM2 Large Ensemble
Abstract

Historical simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 used biomass burning emissions between 1997 and 2014 containing higher spatial and temporal variability compared to emission inventories specified for earlier years, and compared to emissions used in previous (e.g., CMIP5) simulation intercomparisons. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, we show this increased biomass burning emissions variability leads to amplification of the hydrologic cycle poleward of 40°N. Notably, the high variability of biomass burning emissions leads to increased latent heat fluxes, column‐integrated precipitable water, and precipitation. Greater ocean heat uptake, weaker meridional energy transport from the tropics, greater atmospheric shortwave and longwave absorption, and lower relative humidity act to moderate this hydrologic cycle amplification. Our results suggest it is not only the secular changes (on multidecadal timescales) in biomass burning emissions that impact the hydrologic cycle, but also the shorter timescale variability in emissions.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10443952
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
49
Issue:
5
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    The climate response to atmospheric aerosols, including their effects on dominant modes of climate variability like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), remains highly uncertain. This is due to several sources of uncertainty, including aerosol emission, transport, removal, vertical distribution, and radiative properties. Here, we conduct coupled ocean‐atmosphere simulations with two versions of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) driven by semiempirical fine‐mode aerosol direct radiative effects without dust and sea salt. Aerosol atmospheric heating off the west coast of Africa—most of which is due to biomass burning—leads to a significant atmospheric dynamical response, including localized ascent and upper‐level divergence. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) biomass burning simulations support this response. Moreover, CESM shows that the anomalous aerosol heating in the Atlantic triggers an atmospheric teleconnection to the tropical Pacific, including strengthening of the Walker circulation. The easterly trade winds accelerate, and through coupled ocean‐atmosphere processes and the Bjerknes feedback, a La Niña‐like response develops. Observations also support a relationship between south African biomass burning emissions and ENSO, with La Niña events preceding strong south African biomass burning in boreal fall. Our simulations suggest a possible two‐way feedback between ENSO and south African biomass burning, with La Niña promoting more biomass burning emissions, which may then strengthen the developing La Niña.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract. Urbanization and deforestation have important impacts on atmosphericparticulate matter (PM) over Amazonia. This study presents observations andanalysis of PM1 concentration, composition, and opticalproperties in central Amazonia during the dry season, focusing on theanthropogenic impacts. The primary study site was located 70 km downwind ofManaus, a city of over 2 million people in Brazil, as part of theGoAmazon2014/5 experiment. A high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol massspectrometer (AMS) provided data on PM1 composition, and aethalometermeasurements were used to derive the absorption coefficient babs,BrC ofbrown carbon (BrC) at 370 nm. Non-refractory PM1 mass concentrationsaveraged 12.2 µg m−3 at the primary study site, dominated byorganics (83 %), followed by sulfate (11 %). A decrease inbabs,BrC was observed as the mass concentration of nitrogen-containingorganic compounds decreased and the organic PM1 O:C ratio increased,suggesting atmospheric bleaching of the BrC components. The organic PM1was separated into six different classes by positive-matrix factorization(PMF), and the mass absorption efficiency Eabs associated with eachfactor was estimated through multivariate linear regression ofbabs,BrC on the factor loadings. The largest Eabs values wereassociated with urban (2.04±0.14 m2 g−1) and biomass-burning(0.82±0.04 to 1.50±0.07 m2 g−1) sources. Together, these sources contributed at least 80 % ofbabs,BrC while accounting for 30 % to 40 % of the organic PM1 massconcentration. In addition, a comparison of organic PM1 compositionbetween wet and dry seasons revealed that only part of the 9-foldincrease in mass concentration between the seasons can be attributed tobiomass burning. Biomass-burning factor loadings increased by 30-fold,elevating its relative contribution to organic PM1 from about 10 % inthe wet season to 30 % in the dry season. However, most of the PM1mass (>60 %) in both seasons was accounted for by biogenicsecondary organic sources, which in turn showed an 8-fold seasonalincrease in factor loadings. A combination of decreased wet deposition andincreased emissions and oxidant concentrations, as well as a positivefeedback on larger mass concentrations are thought to play a role in theobserved increases. Furthermore, fuzzy c-means clustering identified threeclusters, namely “baseline”, “event”, and “urban” to representdifferent pollution influences during the dry season. The baseline cluster,representing the dry season background, was associated with a mean massconcentration of 9±3 µg m−3. This concentration increasedon average by 3 µg m−3 for both the urban and the event clusters.The event cluster, representing an increased influence of biomass burningand long-range transport of African volcanic emissions, was characterized byremarkably high sulfate concentrations. The urban cluster, representing theinfluence of Manaus emissions on top of the baseline, was characterized byan organic PM1 composition that differed from the other two clusters.The differences discussed suggest a shift in oxidation pathways as well asan accelerated oxidation cycle due to urban emissions, in agreement withfindings for the wet season.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract. Smoke from wildfires is a significant source of air pollution, which can adversely impact air quality and ecosystems downwind. With the recently increasing intensity and severity of wildfires, the threat to air quality is expected to increase. Satellite-derived biomass burning emissions can fill in gaps in the absence of aircraft or ground-based measurement campaigns and can help improve the online calculation of biomass burning emissions as well as the biomass burning emissions inventories that feed air quality models. This study focuses on satellite-derived NOx emissions using the high-spatial-resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 dataset. Advancements and improvements to the satellite-based determination of forest fire NOx emissions are discussed, including information on plume height and effects of aerosol scattering and absorption on the satellite-retrieved vertical column densities. Two common top-down emission estimation methods, (1) an exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) and (2) a flux method, are applied to synthetic data to determine the accuracy and the sensitivity to different parameters, including wind fields, satellite sampling, noise, lifetime, and plume spread. These tests show that emissions can be accurately estimated from single TROPOMI overpasses.The effect of smoke aerosols on TROPOMI NO2 columns (via air mass factors, AMFs) is estimated, and these satellite columns and emission estimates are compared to aircraft observations from four different aircraft campaigns measuring biomass burning plumes in 2018 and 2019 in North America. Our results indicate that applying an explicit aerosol correction to the TROPOMI NO2 columns improves the agreement with the aircraft observations (by about 10 %–25 %). The aircraft- and satellite-derived emissions are in good agreement within the uncertainties. Both top-down emissions methods work well; however, the EMG method seems to output more consistent results and has better agreement with the aircraft-derived emissions. Assuming a Gaussian plume shape for various biomass burning plumes, we estimate an average NOx e-folding time of 2 ±1 h from TROPOMI observations. Based on chemistry transport model simulations and aircraft observations, the net emissions of NOx are 1.3 to 1.5 times greater than the satellite-derived NO2 emissions. A correction factor of 1.3 to 1.5 should thus be used to infer net NOx emissions from the satellite retrievals of NO2. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Smoke from wildfires or burning biomass directly affects air quality and weather through modulating cloud microphysics and radiation. A simple wildfire emission coupling of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) with microphysics was implemented using the Weather Research and Forecasting model's fire module. A set of large‐eddy simulations inspired by unique surface and upper atmospheric observations from the 2021 Santa Coloma de Queralt Fire (Spain) were conducted to investigate the influence of background conditions and interactions between atmospheric and fire processes such as fire smoke, ambient moisture, and latent heat release on the formation and evolution of pyroconvective clouds. While the microphysical impact of BC and OC emissions on the dynamics of fire behavior is minimal on short time scales (<6 hr), their presence increased the cloud water content and decreased the rain rates in our case study. In our case study, atmospheric moisture played an important role in the formation and development of pyroconvective clouds, which in turn enhanced the surface winds (8%) and fire spread rate (25%). The influence of fuel moisture on the pyroconvective cloud formation is smaller when compared with the atmospheric moisture content. A better representation of cloud processes can improve the mesoscale forecasts, which is important for better fire behavior modeling.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    As part of the WINTER (Wintertime Investigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity) campaign, a Particle‐into‐Liquid Sampler with a fraction collector was flown aboard the National Center for Atmospheric Research C‐130 aircraft. Two‐minute integrated liquid samples containing dissolved fine particulate matter (PM1) species were collected and analyzed off‐line for the smoke marker levoglucosan using high‐performance anion‐exchange chromatography‐pulsed amperometric detection to compare levoglucosan with aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) biomass burning markers and investigate the contribution from residential burning during the study. Levoglucosan was correlated with AMS organic aerosol (R2 = 0.49) and with carbon monoxide (CO;R2 = 0.51) for all flights. Levoglucosan was not correlated with the inorganic smoke marker water‐soluble potassium but was correlated with the AMS markers ∆C2H4O2+(high resolution,R2 = 0.60) and ∆m/z60 (unit mass resolution,R2 = 0.61). However, at low levoglucosan, AMS markers deviated potentially due to interferences from other sources or differences with the species captured by the AMS markers. Analysis of levoglucosan changes relative to carbon monoxide as plumes advected from source regions showed no systematic levoglucosan loss for plumes up to 20 hr old. Based on literature residential burning source ratios and measured levoglucosan, contributions of organic carbon (OC) due to residential burning were estimated. The contribution ranged from ~30 to 100% of the OC, with significant variability depending on the source ratio used; however, the results show that biomass burning was a significant PM1OC source across the entire sampling region. A GEOS‐Chem model simulation predicted significantly less smoke contribution.

     
    more » « less