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Abstract Lack of high‐resolution observations in the inner‐core of tropical cyclones remains a key issue when constructing an accurate initial state of the storm structure. The major implication of an improper initial state is the poor predictability of the future state of the storm. The size and associated hazard from strong winds at the inner‐core make it impossible to sample this region entirely. However, targeting regions of the inner‐core where forecasted atmospheric measurements have high uncertainty can significantly improve the accuracy of measurements for the initial state of the storm. This study provides a scheme for targeted high‐resolution observations for small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) platforms (e.g., Coyote sUAS) to improve the estimates of the atmospheric measurement in the inner‐core structure. The benefit of observation is calculated based on the high‐fidelity state‐of‐the‐art hurricane ensemble data assimilation system. Potential locations with the mostinformativemeasurements are identified through exploration of various simulation‐based solutions depending on the state variables (e.g., pressure, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity) and a combined representation of those variables. A sampling‐based sUAS path planning algorithm considers energy usage when locating the regions of highly uncertain prediction of measurements, allowing sUAS to maximize the benefit of observation. Robustness analysis of our algorithm for multiple scenarios of sUAS drop and goal locations shows satisfactory performance against benchmark similar to current NOAA field campaign. With optimized sUAS observations, a data assimilation analysis shows significant improvements of up to 4% in the tropical cyclone structure estimates after resolving uncertainties at targeted locations.
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Challenges for Inline Observation Error Estimation in the Presence of Misspecified Background Uncertainty
Abstract For data assimilation to provide faithful state estimates for dynamical models, specifications of observation uncertainty need to be as accurate as possible. Innovation-based methods based on Desroziers diagnostics, are commonly used to estimate observation uncertainty, but such methods can depend greatly on the prescribed background uncertainty. For ensemble data assimilation, this uncertainty comes from statistics calculated from ensemble forecasts, which require inflation and localization to address under sampling. In this work, we use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a low-dimensional Lorenz model to investigate the interplay between the Desroziers method and inflation. Two inflation techniques are used for this purpose: 1) a rigorously tuned fixed multiplicative scheme and 2) an adaptive state-space scheme. We document how inaccuracies in observation uncertainty affect errors in EnKF posteriors and study the combined impacts of misspecified initial observation uncertainty, sampling error, and model error on Desroziers estimates. We find that whether observation uncertainty is over- or underestimated greatly affects the stability of data assimilation and the accuracy of Desroziers estimates and that preference should be given to initial overestimates. Inline estimates of Desroziers tend to remove the dependence between ensemble spread–skill and the initially prescribed observation error. In addition, we find that the inclusion of model error introduces spurious correlations in observation uncertainty estimates. Further, we note that the adaptive inflation scheme is less robust than fixed inflation at mitigating multiple sources of error. Last, sampling error strongly exacerbates existing sources of error and greatly degrades EnKF estimates, which translates into biased Desroziers estimates of observation error covariance. Significance StatementTo generate accurate predictions of various components of the Earth system, numerical models require an accurate specification of state variables at our current time. This step adopts a probabilistic consideration of our current state estimate versus information provided from environmental measurements of the true state. Various strategies exist for estimating uncertainty in observations within this framework, but are sensitive to a host of assumptions, which are investigated in this study.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2136969
- PAR ID:
- 10446867
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- Volume:
- 151
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2295-2306
- Size(s):
- p. 2295-2306
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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