Random parameter logit models address unobserved preference heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis. The latent class logit model assumes a discrete heterogeneity distribution, by combining a conditional logit model of economic choices with a multinomial logit (MNL) for stochastic assignment to classes. Whereas point estimation of latent class logit models is widely applied in practice, stochastic assignment of individuals to classes needs further analysis. In this paper we analyze the statistical behavior of six competing class assignment strategies, namely: maximum prior MNL probabilities, class drawn from prior MNL probabilities, maximum posterior assignment, drawn posterior assignment, conditional individual-specific estimates, and conditional individual estimates combined with the Krinsky–Robb method to account for uncertainty. Using both a Monte Carlo study and two empirical case studies, we show that assigning individuals to classes based on maximum MNL probabilities behaves better than randomly drawn classes in market share predictions. However, randomly drawn classes have higher accuracy in predicted class shares. Finally, class assignment based on individual-level conditional estimates that account for the sampling distribution of the assignment parameters shows superior behavior for a larger number of choice occasions per individual.
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Queues with Delayed Information: Analyzing the Impact of the Choice Model Function
In this paper, we study queueing systems with delayed information that use a generalization of the multinomial logit choice model as its arrival process. Previous literature assumes that the functional form of the multinomial logit model is exponential. However, in this work we generalize this to different functional forms. In particular, we compute the critical delay and analyze how it depends on the choice of the functional form. We highlight how the functional form of the model can be interpreted as an exponential model where the exponential rate parameter is uncertain. Furthermore, the rate parameter distribution is given by the inverse Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the functional form when it exists. We perform numerous numerical experiments to confirm our theoretical insights.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1645643
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10447644
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos
- Volume:
- 32
- Issue:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 0218-1274
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127422501942
