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Airline booking data have shown that the fraction of customers who choose the cheapest available fare class often is much greater than that predicted by the multinomial logit choice model calibrated with the data. For example, the fraction of customers who choose the cheapest available fare class is much greater than the fraction of customers who choose the next cheapest available one, even if the price difference is small. To model this spike in demand for the cheapest available fare class, a choice model called the spiked multinomial logit (spiked-MNL) model was proposed. We study a network revenue management problem under the spiked-MNL choice model. We show that efficient sets, that is, assortments that offer a Pareto-optimal tradeoff between revenue and resource use, are nested-by-revenue when the spike effect is nonnegative. We use this result to show how a deterministic approximation of the stochastic dynamic program can be solved efficiently by solving a small linear program. The solution of the small linear program is used to construct a booking limit policy, and we prove that the policy is asymptotically optimal. This is the first such result for a booking limit policy under a choice model, and our proof uses an approach that is different from those used for previous asymptotic optimality results. Finally, we evaluate different revenue management policies in numerical experiments using both synthetic and airline data.
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On Assignment to Classes in Latent Class Logit Models
Random parameter logit models address unobserved preference heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis. The latent class logit model assumes a discrete heterogeneity distribution, by combining a conditional logit model of economic choices with a multinomial logit (MNL) for stochastic assignment to classes. Whereas point estimation of latent class logit models is widely applied in practice, stochastic assignment of individuals to classes needs further analysis. In this paper we analyze the statistical behavior of six competing class assignment strategies, namely: maximum prior MNL probabilities, class drawn from prior MNL probabilities, maximum posterior assignment, drawn posterior assignment, conditional individual-specific estimates, and conditional individual estimates combined with the Krinsky–Robb method to account for uncertainty. Using both a Monte Carlo study and two empirical case studies, we show that assigning individuals to classes based on maximum MNL probabilities behaves better than randomly drawn classes in market share predictions. However, randomly drawn classes have higher accuracy in predicted class shares. Finally, class assignment based on individual-level conditional estimates that account for the sampling distribution of the assignment parameters shows superior behavior for a larger number of choice occasions per individual.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2031841
- PAR ID:
- 10440649
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- Volume:
- 2677
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0361-1981
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1137 to 1150
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221121266
