Long‐term slow slip events have been observed at several subduction zones around the globe, where they play an integral part in strain release along megathrust faults. Nevertheless, evidence for long‐term slow slip has remained elusive in the Cascadia subduction zone. Here we conduct a systematic analysis of 13 years of GNSS time series data from 2006 to 2019 and present evidence of at least one low‐amplitude long‐term slow slip event on the Cascadia subduction zone, with the possibility of others that are less resolved. Starting in mid‐2012, a 1.5‐year transient is observed in southern Cascadia, with a group of coastal GNSS stations moving ∼2 mm to the west. The data are modeled as a Mw 6.4 slow slip event occurring at 15–35 km depth on the plate interface, just updip of previously recognized short‐term slow slip and tremor. The event shares many characteristics with similar long‐term transient events on the Nankai subduction zone. However, the total fault slip amplitude is an order‐of‐magnitude smaller in Cascadia when compared to large events elsewhere, making long‐term slow slip detection challenging in Cascadia. While there are other westward long‐duration transients in the refined data set, the surface displacements are below the level of the noise or are limited spatially to a few neighboring stations, making interpretation unclear.
In Southern Cascadia, precise Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements spanning about 15 years reveal steady deformation due to locking on the Cascadia megathrust punctuated by transient deformation from large earthquakes and episodic tremor and slip events. Near the Mendocino Triple Junction, however, we recognize several abrupt GNSS velocity changes that reflect a different process. After correcting for earthquakes and seasonal loading, we find that several dozen GNSS time series show spatially coherent east‐west velocity changes of ~2 mm/yr and that these changes coincide in time with regional
- Award ID(s):
- 1841371
- PAR ID:
- 10448330
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 46
- Issue:
- 22
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 12890-12899
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract We explore the evolution of slow slip on the Cascadia megathrust during two large episodic tremor and slip events and compare stress changes to the spatial evolution of tremor from Pacific Northwest Seismic Network tremor locations. We used displacement time series from ~72 GPS stations, along with the Extended Network Inversion Filter to solve for the time‐dependent fault slip. The 2010 (
Mw 6.8) and 2012 (Mw 6.8) events propagated northward and southward, respectively, allowing us to assess directional effects on slip behavior. We observed that tremor occurs on the leading edge of propagating slipping regions, well ahead of the highest slip rates, independent of the along‐strike propagation direction. Resolution tests using the actual tremor distributions to generate synthetic data show that our result of peak tremor rates leading peak slip rates is not due to biases introduced by temporal smoothing. Calculated stress changes due to the time‐dependent slip distributions imply that tremor is sensitive to kilopascals of stress, consistent with studies of tidally triggered tremor. Within the resolution of our model, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that significant tremor is triggered by stresses ahead of the highest slip rates. We also observe ongoing slip continuing several days after tremor has passed. Our observations are consistent with some numerical models of tremor patches that suggest that this behavior can be explained by densely packed asperities resulting in somewhat crack‐like propagation rather than a slip pulse that is as concentrated as the tremor activity. -
more » « less
Abstract Megathrust earthquakes and their associated tsunamis cause some of the worst natural disasters. In addition to earthquakes, a wide range of slip behaviors are present at subduction zones, including slow earthquakes that span multiple orders of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these events may shed light on the stress or strength conditions of the megathrust fault. Out of all types of slow earthquakes, very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) are most enigmatic because they are difficult to detect reliably, and the physical nature of VLFEs are poorly understood. Here we show three VLFEs in Cascadia that were dynamically triggered by a 2009 Mw 6.9 Canal de Ballenas earthquake in the Gulf of California. The VLFEs likely locate in between the seismogenic zone and the Cascadia episodic tremor and slip (ETS) zone, including one event with a moment magnitude of 5.7. This is the largest VLFE reported to date, causing clear geodetic signals. Our results show that the Cascadia megathrust fault might slip rapidly at some spots in this gap zone, and such a permissible slip behavior has direct seismic hazard implications for coastal communities and perhaps further inland. Further, the observed seismic sources may represent a new class of slip events, whose characteristics do not fit current understandings of slow or regular earthquakes.
-
more » « less
Abstract Slow slip events (SSEs) have been observed in spatial and temporal proximity to megathrust earthquakes in various subduction zones, including the 2014
M w7.3 Guerrero, Mexico earthquake which was preceded by aM w7.6 SSE. However, the underlying physics connecting SSEs to earthquakes remains elusive. Here, we link 3D slow‐slip cycle models with dynamic rupture simulations across the geometrically complex flat‐slab Cocos plate boundary. Our physics‐based models reproduce key regional geodetic and teleseismic fault slip observations on timescales from decades to seconds. We find that accelerating SSE fronts transiently increase shear stress at the down‐dip end of the seismogenic zone, modulated by the complex geometry beneath the Guerrero segment. The shear stresses cast by the migrating fronts of the 2014M w7.6 SSE are significantly larger than those during the three previous episodic SSEs that occurred along the same portion of the megathrust. We show that the SSE transient stresses are large enough to nucleate earthquake dynamic rupture and affect rupture dynamics. However, additional frictional asperities in the seismogenic part of the megathrust are required to explain the observed complexities in the coseismic energy release and static surface displacements of the Guerrero earthquake. We conclude that it is crucial to jointly analyze the long‐ and short‐term interactions and complexities of SSEs and megathrust earthquakes across several (a)seismic cycles accounting for megathrust geometry. Our study has important implications for identifying earthquake precursors and understanding the link between transient and sudden megathrust faulting processes. -
more » « less
Abstract Fault coupling is vital in determining the amount of strain that is accumulated along faults. The magnitude and location of stored elastic strain energy in highly coupled regions has important implications for understanding the full range of slip behavior at plate boundary faults, as well as earthquake and tsunami hazards. We use the temporary dense amphibious array of seismometers offered by the Cascadia Initiative to create a high‐resolution catalog of events to examine the spatio‐temporal behavior of earthquakes near the plate interface. The data show that in southern Cascadia the plate interface updip of the geodetically locked region is nearly devoid of seismicity, therefore likely highly coupled and accumulating strain. The catalog reveals events that are clustered at the downdip edge of the highly coupled megathrust that correlate in time with nearby strain transient observations. Template matching of events in the cluster using permanent stations of the Northern California Seismic Network over a 10‐year period between 2010 and 2020 indicates that this cluster is unique in space and time. Its activity only during the strain transient provides support for the utility of seismic observations in the identification of strain transients.
