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1. Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0  

   Rodysill, J.; Donnelly, J.; Sullivan, R; Lane, P.; Toomey, M.; Woodruff, J.; Hawkes, A.; MacDonald, D.; D'Entremont, N.; McKeon, K.; et al (November 2020, Scientific reports)

   null (Ed.)

   Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity. 

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2. Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-021-0765-1  

   Huang, Wenrui; Yin, Kai; Ghorbanzadeh, Mahyar; Ozguven, Eren; Xu, Sudong; Vijayan, Linoj (December 2021, Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering)

   Abstract An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index ( ETI ) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting. 

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3. Spatially and Temporally Variable Impacts of Hurricanes on Shallow Sediment Structure

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020820  

   Clemo, W_C; Dorgan, K_M; Wallace, D_J; Dzwonkowski, B. (July 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   Abstract Sediment dynamics are fundamental to understanding coastal resiliency to climate change in the coming decades. Tropical cyclones can radically alter shallow sediment properties; however, the uncertain and destructive nature of tropical cyclones make understanding and predicting their impacts on sediments challenging. Here, grain size sampling in conjunction with continuous hydrodynamic data provided an unprecedented perspective of the impacts of two tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Sally (2020), in which the inner core of the storm passed directly over the field sites, on shallow coastal sediments in Alabama (USA). Sampling directly before and after Sally as well as out to ∼7 months after the second storm event, Hurricane Zeta, showed that the changes in sediments following storm events exhibited notable site‐to‐site variability. This variability during the first storm event was consistent with low sand supply and flow interactions driven by local bathymetry that led to sand transport and deposition at some previously‐muddy sites, near‐surface mud loss at some sandy sites, or little change at others. Post‐Sally impacts to grain size were well preserved 8 months after the storm, despite passage of Zeta as well as seasonal winds and riverine inputs during winter and spring. Overall, high temporal‐resolution sampling over a relatively large area (<500 km²) revealed relatively small‐scale spatial variability (on the order of 5–10 km) of hurricane impacts to sediment structure. These observations demonstrate a critical limitation for accurately predicting changes to coastal sediment dynamics in the face of a changing climate and its impact on tropical cyclones. 

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4. Regional shifts in paleohurricane activity over the last 1500 years derived from blue hole sediments offshore of Middle Caicos Island.

   https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107126  

   Wallace, E. (September 2021, Quaternary science reviews)

   Coastal communities are vulnerable to sea-level rise and hurricane-induced flooding. Our ability to assess flooding risk at coastal locations is restricted by the short observational record and limited knowledge on storm surge generation during hurricanes of different strength, size and orientation. Here, we present a transect of sediment cores collected from a blue hole near Middle Caicos in the Turks & Caicos Islands. Storm deposits found across cores in the transect record the passage of hurricanes passing to the south of Middle Caicos over the past 1500 years including Hurricane Irma in 2017. The record indicates historically unprecedented multi-decadal periods of elevated storm strikes on the island. We add this new reconstruction to a compilation of near-annually resolved paleohurricane records of the past millennium in The Bahamas. This compilation indicates increased storm activity in The Bahamas from 650 to 800 CE, 930 to 1040 CE, and 1400 to 1800 CE. Taken together with compilations of published paleohurricane records from New England and the Gulf Coast of Florida, we observe periods of elevated hurricane activity in all three spatially disparate regions over the past millennium and periods when New England and the Bahama Archipelago are active while the Gulf Coast of Florida is not. We argue that both regional-scale changes in vertical wind shear patterns and shifting storm tracks may explain the discrepancies we observe between different regions of the North Atlantic. This research informs how hurricane frequency has changed over the past 1500 years specifically in the Turks & Caicos Islands and regionally along the Bahama Archipelago. 

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5. Comparing the Biogeochemistry of Storm Surge Sediments and Pre-storm Soils in Coastal Wetlands: Hurricane Irma and the Florida Everglades

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00607-0  

   Breithaupt, Joshua L.; Hurst, Nia; Steinmuller, Havalend E.; Duga, Evan; Smoak, Joseph M.; Kominoski, John S.; Chambers, Lisa G. (January 2019, Estuaries and Coasts)

   Hurricanes can alter the rates and trajectories of biogeochemical cycling in coastal wetlands. Defoliation and vegetation death can lead to increased soil temperatures, and storm surge can variously cause erosion or deposition of sediment leading to changes in soil bulk density, nutrient composition, and redox characteristics. The objective of this study was to compare the biogeochemistry of pre-storm soils and a carbonate-rich sediment layer deposited by Hurricane Irma that made landfall in southwest Florida as a category 3 storm in September 2017. We predicted that indicators of biogeochemical activity (e.g., potential soil respiration rates, microbial biomass (MBC), and extracellular enzyme activities) would be lower in the storm sediment layer because of its lower organic matter content relative to pre-storm soils. There were few differences between the storm sediment and pre-storm soils at two of the sites closest to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). This suggests that marine deposition regularly influences soil formation at these sites and is not something that occurs only during hurricanes. At a third site, 8 km from the GOM, the pre-storm soils had much greater concentrations of organic matter, total N, total P, MBC, and higher potential respiration rates than the storm layer. At this same site, CO2 fluxes from intact soil cores containing a layer of storm sediment were 30% lower than those without it. This suggests that sediment deposition from storm surge has the potential to preserve historically sequestered carbon in coastal soils through reduced respiratory losses. 

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