skip to main content


Title: Waves in SKRIPS: WAVEWATCH III coupling implementation and a case study of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu
Abstract. In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS (Scripps–KAUST Regional Integrated Prediction System). The WAVEWATCH III model is implemented with flexibility, meaning the coupled system can run with or without the wave component. In our implementations, we considered the effect of Stokes drift, Langmuir turbulence, sea surface roughness, and wave-induced momentum fluxes. To demonstrate the impact of coupling we performed a case study using a series of coupled and uncoupled simulations of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea in May 2018. We examined the model skill in these simulations and further investigated the impact of Langmuir turbulence in the coupled system. Because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, we ran an ensemble of 20 members for each coupled and uncoupled experiment. We found that the characteristics of the tropical cyclone are not significantly different due to the effect of surface waves when using different parameterizations, but the coupled models better capture the minimum pressure and maximum wind speed compared with the benchmark stand-alone Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Moreover, in the region of the cold wake, when Langmuir turbulence is considered in the coupled system, the sea surface temperature is about 0.5 ∘C colder, and the mixed layer is about 20 m deeper. This indicates the ocean model is sensitive to the parameterization of Langmuir turbulence in the coupled simulations.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2022868
NSF-PAR ID:
10450518
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development
Volume:
16
Issue:
12
ISSN:
1991-9603
Page Range / eLocation ID:
3435 to 3458
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Mixing of the ocean beneath tropical cyclones (TC) cools the surface temperature thereby modifying the storm intensity. Modeling studies predict that surface wave forcing through Langmuir turbulence (LT) increases the mixing and cooling and decreases near‐surface vertical velocity shear. However, there are very few quantitative observational validations of these model predictions, and the validation efforts are often limited by uncertainties in the drag coefficient (Cd). We combine EM‐APEX and Lagrangian float measurements of temperature, salinity, velocity, and vertical turbulent kinetic energy (VKE) from five TCs with a coupled ocean‐wave model (Modular Ocean Model 6—WAVEWATCH III) forced by the drag coefficientCddirectly constrained for these storms. On the right‐hand of the storms in the northern hemisphere, where wind and waves are nearly aligned, the measured VKE is consistent with predictions of models including LT and 2–3 times higher than predictions without LT. Similarly, vertical shear in the upper 20 m is small, consistent with predictions of LT models and inconsistent with the large shears predicted by models without LT. On the left‐hand of the storms, where wind and waves are misaligned, the observed VKE and cooling are reduced compared to those on the right‐hand, consistent with the measured decrease inCd. These results confirm the importance of surface waves for ocean cooling and thus TC intensity, through bothCdand LT effects. However, the model predictions, even with the LT parameterization, underestimate the upper ocean cooling and mixed layer deepening by 20%–30%, suggesting possible deficiency of the existing LT parameterization.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    The drag coefficient under tropical cyclones and its dependence on sea states are investigated by combining upper-ocean current observations [using electromagnetic autonomous profiling explorer (EM-APEX) floats deployed under five tropical cyclones] and a coupled ocean–wave (Modular Ocean Model 6–WAVEWATCH III) model. The estimated drag coefficient averaged over all storms is around 2–3 × 10−3for wind speeds of 25–55 m s−1. While the drag coefficient weakly depends on wind speed in this wind speed range, it shows stronger dependence on sea states. In particular, it is significantly reduced when the misalignment angle between the dominant wave direction and the wind direction exceeds about 45°, a feature that is underestimated by current models of sea state–dependent drag coefficient. Since the misaligned swell is more common in the far front and in the left-front quadrant of the storm (in the Northern Hemisphere), the drag coefficient also tends to be lower in these areas and shows a distinct spatial distribution. Our results therefore support ongoing efforts to develop and implement sea state–dependent parameterizations of the drag coefficient in tropical cyclone conditions.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    The coupled dynamics of turbulent airflow and a spectrum of waves are known to modify air–sea momentum and scalar fluxes. Waves traveling at oblique angles to the wind are common in the open ocean, and their effects may be especially relevant when constraining fluxes in storm and tropical cyclone conditions. In this study, we employ large-eddy simulation for airflow over steep, strongly forced waves following and opposing oblique wind to elucidate its impacts on the wind speed magnitude and direction, drag coefficient, and wave growth/decay rate. We find that oblique wind maintains a signature of airflow separation while introducing a cross-wave component strongly modified by the waves. The directions of mean wind speed and mean wind shear vary significantly with height and are misaligned from the wind stress direction, particularly toward the surface. As the oblique angle increases, the wave form drag remains positive, but the wave impact on the equivalent surface roughness (drag coefficient) rapidly decreases and becomes negative at large angles. Our findings have significant implications for how the sea-state-dependent drag coefficient is parameterized in forecast models. Our results also suggest that wind speed and wind stress measurements performed on a wave-following platform can be strongly contaminated by the platform motion if the instrument is inside the wave boundary layer of dominant waves.

    Significance Statement

    Surface waves increase friction at the sea surface and modify how wind forces upper-ocean currents and turbulence. Therefore, it is important to include effects of different wave conditions in weather and climate forecasts. We aim to inform more accurate forecasts by investigating wind blowing over waves propagating in oblique directions using large-eddy simulation. We find that waves traveling at a 45° angle or larger to the wind grow as expected, but do not increase or even decrease the surface friction felt by the wind—a surprising result that has significant implications for how oblique wind-waves are represented as a source of surface friction in forecast models.

     
    more » « less
  4. The connection relating upper-ocean salinity stratification in the form of oceanic barrier layers to tropical cyclone (TC) intensification is investigated in this study. Previous works disagree on whether ocean salinity is a negligible factor on TC intensification. Relationships derived in many of these studies are based on observations, which can be sparse or incomplete, or uncoupled models, which neglect air–sea feedbacks. Here, idealized ensemble simulations of TCs performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled to the 3D Price–Weller–Pinkel (PWP) ocean model facilitate examination of the TC–upper-ocean system in a controlled, high-resolution, mesoscale environment. Idealized vertical ocean profiles are modeled after barrier layer profiles of the Amazon–Orinoco river plume region, where barrier layers are defined as vertical salinity gradients between the mixed and isothermal layer depths. Our results reveal that for TCs of category 1 hurricane strength or greater, thick (24–30 m) barrier layers may favor further intensification by 6%–15% when averaging across ensemble members. Conversely, weaker cyclones are hindered by thick barrier layers. Reduced sea surface temperature cooling below the TC inner core is the primary reason for additional intensification. Sensitivity tests of the results to storm translation speed, initial oceanic mixed layer temperature, and atmospheric vertical wind shear provide a more comprehensive analysis. Last, it is shown that the ensemble mean intensity results are similar when using a 3D or 1D version of PWP.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls over the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, which include the so-called Sandy-like, or westward-curving, tracks, are among the most infrequent landfalls along the U.S. East Coast. However, when these events do occur, the resulting economic and societal consequences can be devastating. A recent example is Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Multimodel ensemble seasonal hindcasts conducted with a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF operational model (Project Minerva) are used here to compile the statistics of these rare events. Minerva hindcasts are found to exhibit skill in reproducing climatological characteristics of the mid-Atlantic TC landfalls particularly at the highest atmospheric horizontal spectral resolution of T1279 (16-km grid spacing). Historical forecasts are further interrogated to identify regional and large-scale environmental conditions associated with these rare TC tracks to better quantify their predictability on synoptic time scales, and their dependence on model resolution. Evolution of the large-scale atmospheric flow patterns leading to mid-Atlantic TC landfalls is analyzed using local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA). We have identified large-amplitude quasi-stationary features in the LWA and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distributions that persist up to about a week leading to these land-falling events. A statistical model utilizing indices based on the LWA and SST anomalies as predictors is developed that exhibits skill (mostly at T1279) in predicting mid-Atlantic TC landfalls several days in advance. Implications of these results for longer time-scale predictions of mid-Atlantic TC landfalls including climate change projections are discussed.

     
    more » « less