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Abstract Observations have revealed the existence of persistent slope countercurrents (SCCs) that flow southwestward beneath the Kuroshio Current at several locations over the East China Sea (ECS) continental slope. It was not clear whether these flows are localized circulation features or segments of a trough‐scale circulation system in the Okinawa Trough (OT). We demonstrate that there indeed exists a potentially continuous trough‐scale SCC along the ECS slope that is associated with an OT‐wide cyclonic circulation using high‐resolution model simulations and physical interpretations. The detailed features of the deep OT circulation are illustrated by the trajectories of the Lagrangian drifters and the time‐varying distributions of passive tracers. The SCC in the ECS is characterized by its weak yet persistent nature, typically located in narrow sloping regions at the isopycnal layer of 26.6–27.3 kg m⁻³. It exhibits a characteristic speed of approximately O‐(1) cm s⁻¹. Analyses and experiments suggest that the divergence of upwelling in the SCC layer (26.6–27.3 σ_θsurface) gives rise to lateral potential vorticity transport, ultimately driving the deep cyclonic circulation. Furthermore, the SCC also displays a substantial connection with the onshore intrusion of the Kuroshio Current, particularly to the northeast of Taiwan Island. The SCC may potentially play a crucial role in the transport of heat and nutrients, as well as in regulating sediment distributions within the deep OT. This mechanism offers fresh insights into explaining the presence of undercurrents in semi‐enclosed marginal seas. 

Abstract California experienced a historic run of nine consecutive landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in three weeks’ time during winter 2022/23. Following three years of drought from 2020 to 2022, intense landfalling ARs across California in December 2022–January 2023 were responsible for bringing reservoirs back to historical averages and producing damaging floods and debris flows. In recent years, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and collaborating institutions have developed and routinely provided to end users peer-reviewed experimental seasonal (1–6 month lead time) and subseasonal (2–6 week lead time) prediction tools for western U.S. ARs, circulation regimes, and precipitation. Here, we evaluate the performance of experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts for winter 2022/23, along with experimental subseasonal AR activity and circulation forecasts during the December 2022 regime shift from dry conditions to persistent troughing and record AR-driven wetness over the western United States. Experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts were too dry across Southern California (likely due to their overreliance on La Niña), and the observed above-normal precipitation across Northern and Central California was underpredicted. However, experimental subseasonal forecasts skillfully captured the regime shift from dry to wet conditions in late December 2022 at 2–3 week lead time. During this time, an active MJO shift from phases 4 and 5 to 6 and 7 occurred, which historically tilts the odds toward increased AR activity over California. New experimental seasonal and subseasonal synthesis forecast products, designed to aggregate information across institutions and methods, are introduced in the context of this historic winter to provide situational awareness guidance to western U.S. water managers. 

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies caused by a warm core eddy (WCE) in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA) rendered a crucial influence on modifying the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). During the first cruise to support the Antarctic Modeling and Observation System (ATMOS) project, a WCE that was shed from the Brazil Current was sampled. Apart from traditional meteorological measurements, we used the Eddy Covariance method to directly measure the ocean–atmosphere sensible heat, latent heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes. The mechanisms of pressure adjustment and vertical mixing that can make the MABL unstable were both identified. The WCE also acted to increase the surface winds and heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. Oceanic regions at middle and high latitudes are expected to absorb atmospheric CO₂, and are thereby considered as sinks, due to their cold waters. Instead, the presence of this WCE in midlatitudes, surrounded by predominantly cold waters, caused the ocean to locally act as a CO₂source. The contribution to the atmosphere was estimated as 0.3 ± 0.04 mmol m⁻²day⁻¹, averaged over the sampling period. The CO₂transfer velocity coefficient (K) was determined using a quadratic fit and showed an adequate representation of ocean–atmosphere fluxes. The ocean–atmosphere CO₂, momentum, and heat fluxes were each closely correlated with the SST. The increase of SST inside the WCE clearly resulted in larger magnitudes of all of the ocean–atmosphere fluxes studied here. This study adds to our understanding of how oceanic mesoscale structures, such as this WCE, affect the overlying atmosphere. 

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific. 

Abstract. In this work, we integrated the WAVEWATCH III model into the regional coupled model SKRIPS (Scripps–KAUST Regional Integrated Prediction System). The WAVEWATCH III model is implemented with flexibility, meaning the coupled system can run with or without the wave component. In our implementations, we considered the effect of Stokes drift, Langmuir turbulence, sea surface roughness, and wave-induced momentum fluxes. To demonstrate the impact of coupling we performed a case study using a series of coupled and uncoupled simulations of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu, which occurred in the Arabian Sea in May 2018. We examined the model skill in these simulations and further investigated the impact of Langmuir turbulence in the coupled system. Because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, we ran an ensemble of 20 members for each coupled and uncoupled experiment. We found that the characteristics of the tropical cyclone are not significantly different due to the effect of surface waves when using different parameterizations, but the coupled models better capture the minimum pressure and maximum wind speed compared with the benchmark stand-alone Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Moreover, in the region of the cold wake, when Langmuir turbulence is considered in the coupled system, the sea surface temperature is about 0.5 ∘C colder, and the mixed layer is about 20 m deeper. This indicates the ocean model is sensitive to the parameterization of Langmuir turbulence in the coupled simulations. 

Abstract The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an atmospheric system occurring in austral summer on the South America continent and sometimes extending over the adjacent South Atlantic. It is characterized by a persistent and very large, northwest-southeast-oriented, cloud band. Its presence over the ocean causes sea surface cooling that some past studies indicated as being produced by a decrease of incoming solar heat flux induced by the extensive cloud cover. Here we investigate ocean–atmosphere interaction processes in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA) during SACZ oceanic episodes, as well as the resulting modulations occurring in the oceanic mixed layer and their possible feedbacks on the marine atmospheric boundary layer. Our main interests and novel results are on verifying how the oceanic SACZ acts on dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms and contributes to the sea surface thermal balance in that region. In our oceanic SACZ episodes simulations we confirm an ocean surface cooling. Model results indicate that surface atmospheric circulation and the presence of an extensive cloud cover band over the SWA promote sea surface cooling via a combined effect of dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms, which are of the same order of magnitude. The sea surface temperature (SST) decreases in regions underneath oceanic SACZ positions, near Southeast Brazilian coast, in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) and offshore. This cooling is the result of a complex combination of factors caused by the decrease of solar shortwave radiation reaching the sea surface and the reduction of horizontal heat advection in the Brazil Current (BC) region. The weakened southward BC and adjacent offshore region heat advection seems to be associated with the surface atmospheric circulation caused by oceanic SACZ episodes, which rotate the surface wind and strengthen cyclonic oceanic mesoscale eddy. Another singular feature found in this study is the presence of an atmospheric cyclonic vortex Southwest of the SACZ (CVSS), both at the surface and aloft at 850 hPa near 24°S and 45°W. The CVSS induces an SST decrease southwestward from the SACZ position by inducing divergent Ekman transport and consequent offshore upwelling. This shows that the dynamical effects of atmospheric surface circulation associated with the oceanic SACZ are not restricted only to the region underneath the cloud band, but that they extend southwestward where the CVSS presence supports the oceanic SACZ convective activity and concomitantly modifies the ocean dynamics. Therefore, the changes produced in the oceanic dynamics by these SACZ events may be important to many areas of scientific and applied climate research. For example, episodes of oceanic SACZ may influence the pathways of pollutants as well as fish larvae dispersion in the region.