An official website of the United States government
Abstract Biomass supply chain performance is heavily affected by uncertainties stemming from supply, demand, or unexpected disruptions. Unlike petrochemical plants that use crude oil, biorefineries often have to deal with the uneven spatial‐temporal distribution of feedstock supply. The modular production strategy provides more flexibility in chemical manufacturing by allowing fast capacity expansion and unit movement. However, modeling and optimizing modular biomass supply chain under uncertainties becomes challenging due to high dimensionality and the existence of discrete decisions. This work optimizes the multiperiod biomass supply chain using the rolling horizon planning and two‐stage stochastic programming framework. We then applied generalized Benders decomposition to reduce the computational complexity of the stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming supply chain optimization. Furthermore, the solution of the stochastic programming could be used to quantitatively describe the life‐cycle assessment uncertainties of the biomass supply chain performance, demonstrating seasonality and random variability.
more »
« less
Applications of artificial intelligence‐based modeling for bioenergy systems: A review
Abstract Bioenergy is widely considered a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. However, large‐scale applications of biomass‐based energy products are limited due to challenges related to feedstock variability, conversion economics, and supply chain reliability. Artificial intelligence (AI), an emerging concept, has been applied to bioenergy systems in recent decades to address those challenges. This paper reviewed 164 articles published between 2005 and 2019 that applied different AI techniques to bioenergy systems. This review focuses on identifying the unique capabilities of various AI techniques in addressing bioenergy‐related research challenges and improving the performance of bioenergy systems. Specifically, we characterized AI studies by their input variables, output variables, AI techniques, dataset size, and performance. We examined AI applications throughout the life cycle of bioenergy systems. We identified four areas in which AI has been mostly applied, including (1) the prediction of biomass properties, (2) the prediction of process performance of biomass conversion, including different conversion pathways and technologies, (3) the prediction of biofuel properties and the performance of bioenergy end‐use systems, and (4) supply chain modeling and optimization. Based on the review, AI is particularly useful in generating data that are hard to be measured directly, improving traditional models of biomass conversion and biofuel end‐uses, and overcoming the challenges of traditional computing techniques for bioenergy supply chain design and optimization. For future research, efforts are needed to develop standardized and practical procedures for selecting AI techniques and determining training data samples, to enhance data collection, documentation, and sharing across bioenergy‐related areas, and to explore the potential of AI in supporting the sustainable development of bioenergy systems from holistic perspectives.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2038439
- PAR ID:
- 10453009
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- GCB Bioenergy
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1757-1693
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 774-802
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract In order to both combat the decline of biodiversity and produce food, fuel, and fiber for a growing human population, current agricultural landscapes must transition into diversified, multifunctional systems. Perennial cellulosic biofuel crops have potential to meet both of these challenges, acting as multifunctional systems that can enhance biodiversity. What is not well understood, and what we test here, are the tradeoffs among different perennial crops in their performance as biofuels and in biodiversity conservation. Working in an established bioenergy experiment with four native, perennial, cellulosic biofuel crop varieties—ranging from monoculture to diverse restoration planting—we tested the effect of biofuel crop management on flower communities, pollinator communities, and crop yield. The greatest abundance and diversity of pollinators and flowers were in treatments that were successional (unmanaged), followed by restored prairie (seeded mix of native grasses and forbs), switchgrass, and a mix of native grasses. However, biofuel crop yield was approximately the inverse, with native grasses having the highest yield, followed by switchgrass and prairie, then successional treatments. Restored prairie was the optimal biofuel crop when both pollinator conservation and crop yield are valued similarly. We add to mounting evidence that policy is needed to create sustainable markets that value the multifunctionality of perennial biofuel systems in order to achieve greater ecosystem services from agricultural landscapes.more » « less
-
Abstract BackgroundWoody biomass has been considered as a promising feedstock for biofuel production via thermochemical conversion technologies such as fast pyrolysis. Extensive Life Cycle Assessment studies have been completed to evaluate the carbon intensity of woody biomass-derived biofuels via fast pyrolysis. However, most studies assumed that woody biomass such as forest residues is a carbon–neutral feedstock like annual crops, despite a distinctive timeframe it takes to grow woody biomass. Besides, few studies have investigated the impacts of forest dynamics and the temporal effects of carbon on the overall carbon intensity of woody-derived biofuels. This study addressed such gaps by developing a life-cycle carbon analysis framework integrating dynamic modeling for forest and biorefinery systems with a time-based discounted Global Warming Potential (GWP) method developed in this work. The framework analyzed dynamic carbon and energy flows of a supply chain for biofuel production from pine residues via fast pyrolysis. ResultsThe mean carbon intensity of biofuel given by Monte Carlo simulation across three pine growth cases ranges from 40.8–41.2 g CO2e MJ−1(static method) to 51.0–65.2 g CO2e MJ−1(using the time-based discounted GWP method) when combusting biochar for energy recovery. If biochar is utilized as soil amendment, the carbon intensity reduces to 19.0–19.7 g CO2e MJ−1(static method) and 29.6–43.4 g CO2e MJ−1in the time-based method. Forest growth and yields (controlled by forest management strategies) show more significant impacts on biofuel carbon intensity when the temporal effect of carbon is taken into consideration. Variation in forest operations and management (e.g., energy consumption of thinning and harvesting), on the other hand, has little impact on the biofuel carbon intensity. ConclusionsThe carbon temporal effect, particularly the time lag of carbon sequestration during pine growth, has direct impacts on the carbon intensity of biofuels produced from pine residues from a stand-level pine growth and management point of view. The carbon implications are also significantly impacted by the assumptions of biochar end-of-life cases and forest management strategies.more » « less
-
Methods to assess wood-based bioenergy projects have tended to focus on technological and physical constraints. Less is known about how longer-term environmental, economic, and social systems—the three pillars of sustainable development—have influenced technological development in the context of woody biomass energy. This research offers new methods for assessing the sustain- ability of wood-based energy projects by combining spatial analysis, semi-structured interviews, and archival data analysis. By integrating quantitative and qualitative methods, this project offers ways to understand how social and environmental dynamics from the past shape technological development in the future. A propensity analysis of biomass energy plants in Michigan, USA was performed using US Census data grouped by social, economic, and environmental categories. This quantitative analysis helped to characterize community and landscape types in which woody biomass plants were developed in Michigan in the late-twentieth century. To help illustrate some of the often-hidden social and political dimensions of energy development, such as access to decision-making and attitudes toward bioenergy projects, transcripts of public hearings, media coverage, and other archival sources were examined, and 30 stakeholder interviews were conducted. By integrating these qualitative and quantitative approaches, this paper aims to provide a more comprehensive approach to assessing the sustainability of wood-based biofuel technologies.more » « less
-
Abstract We present an overview of recent work on using artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) techniques for forecasting convective weather and its associated hazards, including tornadoes, hail, wind, and lightning. These high-impact phenomena globally cause both massive property damage and loss of life, yet they are very challenging to forecast. Given the recent explosion in developing ML techniques across the weather spectrum and the fact that the skillful prediction of convective weather has immediate societal benefits, we present a thorough review of the current state of the art in AI and ML techniques for convective hazards. Our review includes both traditional approaches, including support vector machines and decision trees, as well as deep learning approaches. We highlight the challenges in developing ML approaches to forecast these phenomena across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. We end with a discussion of promising areas of future work for ML for convective weather, including a discussion of the need to create trustworthy AI forecasts that can be used for forecasters in real time and the need for active cross-sector collaboration on testbeds to validate ML methods in operational situations. Significance StatementWe provide an overview of recent machine learning research in predicting hazards from thunderstorms, specifically looking at lightning, wind, hail, and tornadoes. These hazards kill people worldwide and also destroy property and livestock. Improving the prediction of these events in both the local space as well as globally can save lives and property. By providing this review, we aim to spur additional research into developing machine learning approaches for convective hazard prediction.more » « less
