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1. Plume-SPH 1.0: a three-dimensional, dusty-gas volcanic plume model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics

   https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2691-2018  

   Cao, Zhixuan ; Patra, Abani ; Bursik, Marcus ; Pitman, E. Bruce ; Jones, Matthew ( January 2018 , Geoscientific Model Development)

   Abstract. Plume-SPH provides the first particle-based simulation ofvolcanic plumes. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has several advantagesover currently used mesh-based methods in modeling of multiphase freeboundary flows like volcanic plumes. This tool will provide more accurateeruption source terms to users of volcanic ash transport anddispersion models (VATDs), greatly improving volcanic ash forecasts. The accuracy ofthese terms is crucial for forecasts from VATDs, and the 3-D SPH modelpresented here will provide better numerical accuracy. As an initial effortto exploit the feasibility and advantages of SPH in volcanic plume modeling,we adopt a relatively simple physics model (3-D dusty-gas dynamic modelassuming well-mixed eruption material, dynamic equilibrium and thermodynamicequilibrium between erupted material and air that entrained into the plume,and minimal effect of winds) targeted at capturing the salient features of avolcanic plume. The documented open-source code is easily obtained andextended to incorporate other models of physics of interest to the largecommunity of researchers investigating multiphase free boundary flows ofvolcanic or other origins.

   The Plume-SPH code (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.572819) also incorporates several newly developed techniques inSPH needed to address numerical challenges in simulating multiphasecompressible turbulent flow. The code should thus be also of general interestto the much larger community of researchers using and developing SPH-basedtools. In particular, the SPH−ε turbulence model is used to capturemixing at unresolved scales. Heat exchange due to turbulence is calculated bya Reynolds analogy, and a corrected SPH is used to handle tensile instabilityand deficiency of particle distribution near the boundaries. We alsodeveloped methodology to impose velocity inlet and pressure outlet boundaryconditions, both of which are scarce in traditional implementations of SPH.

   The core solver of our model is parallelized with the message passinginterface (MPI) obtaining good weak and strong scalability using novel techniquesfor data management using space-filling curves (SFCs), object creationtime-based indexing and hash-table-based storage schemes. These techniques areof interest to researchers engaged in developing particles in cell-typemethods. The code is first verified by 1-D shock tube tests, then bycomparing velocity and concentration distribution along the central axis andon the transverse cross with experimental results of JPUE (jet or plume thatis ejected from a nozzle into a uniform environment). Profiles of severalintegrated variables are compared with those calculated by existing 3-D plumemodels for an eruption with the same mass eruption rate (MER) estimated forthe Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 15 June 1991. Our results are consistent withexisting 3-D plume models. Analysis of the plume evolution processdemonstrates that this model is able to reproduce the physics of plumedevelopment.

    

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2. Mechanisms Responsible for Stratosphere‐to‐Troposphere Transport Around a Mesoscale Convective System Anvil

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032016  

   Phoenix, Daniel B. ; Homeyer, Cameron R. ; Barth, Mary C. ; Trier, Stanley B. ( May 2020 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Recent observational studies have shown that stratospheric air rich in ozone (O₃) is capable of being transported into the upper troposphere in association with tropopause‐penetrating convection (anvil wrapping). This finding challenges the current understanding of upper tropospheric sources of O₃, which is traditionally thought to come from thunderstorm outflows where lightning‐generated nitrogen oxides facilitate O₃formation. Since tropospheric O₃is an important greenhouse gas and the frequency and strength of tropopause‐penetrating storms may change in a changing climate, it is important to understand the mechanisms driving this transport process so that it can be better represented in chemistry‐climate models. Simulations of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) around which this transport process was observed are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry model adequately simulates anvil wrapping of ozone‐rich air. Possible mechanisms that influence the transport, including small‐scale static and dynamic instabilities and MCS‐induced mesoscale circulations, are evaluated. Model results suggest that anvil wrapping is a two‐step transport process (1) compensating subsidence surrounding the MCS, which is driven by mass conservation as the MCS transports tropospheric air into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, followed by (2) differential advection beneath the core of the MCS upper‐tropospheric outflow jet which wraps high O₃air around and under the MCS cloud anvil. Static and dynamic instabilities are not a leading contributor to this transport process. Continued fine‐scale modeling of these events is needed to fully represent the stratosphere‐to‐troposphere transport process.

    

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3. Volcanic electrification: recent advances and future perspectives

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01591-3  

   Cimarelli, Corrado ; Behnke, Sonja ; Genareau, Kimberly ; Harper, Joshua Méndez ; Van Eaton, Alexa R. ( July 2022 , Bulletin of Volcanology)

   The electrification of volcanic plumes has been described intermittently since at least the time of Pliny the Younger and the 79 AD eruption of Vesuvius. Although sometimes disregarded in the past as secondary effects, recent work suggests that the electrical properties of volcanic plumes reveal intrinsic and otherwise inaccessible parameters of explosive eruptions. An increasing number of volcanic lightning studies across the last decade have shown that electrification is ubiquitous in volcanic plumes. Technological advances in engineering and numerical modelling, paired with close observation of recent eruptions and dedicated laboratory studies (shock-tube and current impulse experiments), show that charge generation and electrical activity are related to the physical, chemical, and dynamic processes underpinning the eruption itself. Refining our understanding of volcanic plume electrification will continue advancing the fundamental understanding of eruptive processes to improve volcano monitoring. Realizing this goal, however, requires an interdisciplinary approach at the intersection of volcanology, atmospheric science, atmospheric electricity, and engineering. Our paper summarizes the rapid and steady progress achieved in recent volcanic lightning research and provides a vision for future developments in this growing field.

    

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4. Severe Global Cooling After Volcanic Super-Eruptions? The Answer Hinges on Unknown Aerosol Size

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0116.1  

   McGraw, Zachary ; DallaSanta, Kevin ; Polvani, Lorenzo M. ; Tsigaridis, Kostas ; Orbe, Clara ; Bauer, Susanne E. ( February 2024 , Journal of Climate)

   Volcanic super-eruptions have been theorized to cause severe global cooling, with the 74 kya Toba eruption purported to have driven humanity to near-extinction. However, this eruption left little physical evidence of its severity and models diverge greatly on the magnitude of post-eruption cooling. A key factor controlling the super-eruption climate response is the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol, a quantity that left no physical record and is poorly constrained by models. Here we show that this knowledge gap severely limits confidence in model-based estimates of super-volcanic cooling, and accounts for much of the disagreement among prior studies. By simulating super-eruptions over a range of aerosol sizes, we obtain global mean responses varying from extreme cooling all the way to the previously unexplored scenario of widespread warming. We also use an interactive aerosol model to evaluate the scaling between injected sulfur mass and aerosol size. Combining our model results with the available paleoclimate constraints applicable to large eruptions, we estimate that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C no matter how massive the stratospheric injection. Super-eruptions, we conclude, may be incapable of altering global temperatures substantially more than the largest Common Era eruptions. This lack of exceptional cooling could explain why no single super-eruption event has resulted in firm evidence of widespread catastrophe for humans or ecosystems.

   Whether volcanic super-eruptions pose a threat to humanity remains a subject of debate, with climate models disagreeing on the magnitude of global post-eruption cooling. We demonstrate that this disagreement primarily stems from a lack of constraint on the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. By evaluating the range of aerosol size scenarios, we demonstrate that eruptions may be incapable of causing more than 1.5°C cooling no matter how much sulfur they inject into the stratosphere. This could explain why archaeological records provide no evidence of increased human mortality following the Toba super-eruption. Further, we raise the unexplored possibility that the largest super-eruptions could cause global-scale warming.

    

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5. Spatial analysis of globally detected volcanic lightning from the June 2019 eruption of Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

   https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.02.385395  

   Smith, Cassandra M. ; Van Eaton, Alexa R. ; Schneider, David J. ; Mastin, Larry ; Matoza, Robin S. ; McKee, Kathleen ; Maher, Sean ( August 2022 , Volcanica)

   The 21–22 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke volcano, Russia, provided an opportunity to explore how spatial trends in volcanic lightning locations provide insights into pulsatory eruption dynamics. Using satellite-derived plume heights, we examine the development of lightning detected by Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) from eleven, closely spaced eruptive pulses. Results from one-dimensional plume modeling show that the eruptive pulses with maximum heights 9–16.5 km above sea level were capable of producing ice in the upper troposphere, which contributed variably to electrification and volcanic lightning. A key finding is that lightning locations not only followed the main dispersal direction of these ash plumes, but also tracked a lower-level cloud derived from pyroclastic density currents. We show a positive relationship between umbrella cloud expansion and the area over which lightning occurs (the ‘lightning footprint’). These observations suggest useful metrics to characterize ongoing eruptive activity in near real-time. 

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