Many areas worldwide are known to experience land subsidence due to groundwater extraction. It is traditionally assumed that subsidence extent and rates are controlled by groundwater extraction locations and volumes. Here, we reevaluate this assumption in the Mexico City metropolitan area by combining stratigraphic, hydrologic, geodetic, and demographic datasets. Integration of 115 years of leveling with 24 years of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and 14 years of GPS data reveals that subsidence rates have been mostly constant in Mexico City since at least 1950 and reach 50 cm/year. Analysis of InSAR and GPS data shows that no significant elastic deformation exists, demonstrating that the subsidence is almost fully irreversible. In Mexico City, no direct relationships exist between groundwater level fluctuations and subsidence rates or between pumping rates and subsidence rates. In contrast, a strong positive linear relationship is isolated between subsidence rates and the thickness of the upper aquitard. Through the integration of these long‐term datasets, we forecast that it will take ∼150 years to reach total compaction of the upper aquitard, which may lead to additional subsidence up to 30 m. With the potentiometric surface now deeper than most of the aquitard, clay's porewater rich in salts, chemical constituents, and pollutants is now flowing downward into the productive aquifer, hence decreasing water quality. Finally, our work shows that the consequences of land subsidence greatly influence the socioeconomic landscape in the Mexico City metropolitan area.
Land subsidence as a result of groundwater overpumping in the San Joaquin Valley, California, is associated with the loss of groundwater storage and aquifer contamination. Although the physical processes governing land subsidence are well understood, building predictive models of subsidence is challenging because so much subsurface information is required to do so accurately. For the first time, we integrate airborne electromagnetic data, representing the subsurface, with subsidence data, mapped by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), to model deformation. By combining both data sets, we are able to solve for hydrologic and geophysical properties of the subsurface to effectively model the complex spatiotemporal process of deformation. The resulting model reveals that roughly 3 m of subsidence has occurred at one location of our study area from 1990 to 2018. This model also allows us to predict subsidence more accurately under future hydrologic scenarios, which is needed to develop plans for sustainable groundwater use.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10453817
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2801-2819
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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