Time‐scaled phylogenies underpin the interrogation of evolutionary processes across deep timescales, as well as attempts to link these to Earth's history. By inferring the placement of fossils and using their ages as temporal constraints, tip dating under the fossilized birth–death (FBD) process provides a coherent prior on divergence times. At the same time, it also links topological and temporal accuracy, as incorrectly placed fossil terminals should misinform divergence times. This could pose serious issues for obtaining accurate node ages, yet the interaction between topological and temporal error has not been thoroughly explored. We simulate phylogenies and associated morphological datasets using methodologies that incorporate evolution under selection, and are benchmarked against empirical datasets. We find that datasets of 300 characters and realistic levels of missing data generally succeed in inferring the correct placement of fossils on a constrained extant backbone topology, and that true node ages are usually contained within Bayesian posterior distributions. While increased fossil sampling improves the accuracy of inferred ages, topological and temporal errors do not seem to be linked: analyses in which fossils resolve less accurately do not exhibit elevated errors in node age estimates. At the same time, inferred divergence times are biased, probably due to a mismatch between the FBD prior and the shape of our simulated trees. While these results are encouraging, suggesting that even fossils with uncertain affinities can provide useful temporal information, they also emphasize that palaeontological information cannot overturn discrepancies between model priors and the true diversification history.
Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results.
We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR).
We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa.
We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.
- Award ID(s):
- 1916632
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10457434
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- American Journal of Botany
- Volume:
- 107
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0002-9122
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 895-909
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Motivation Branch lengths and topology of a species tree are essential in most downstream analyses, including estimation of diversification dates, characterization of selection, understanding adaptation, and comparative genomics. Modern phylogenomic analyses often use methods that account for the heterogeneity of evolutionary histories across the genome due to processes such as incomplete lineage sorting. However, these methods typically do not generate branch lengths in units that are usable by downstream applications, forcing phylogenomic analyses to resort to alternative shortcuts such as estimating branch lengths by concatenating gene alignments into a supermatrix. Yet, concatenation and other available approaches for estimating branch lengths fail to address heterogeneity across the genome.
Results In this article, we derive expected values of gene tree branch lengths in substitution units under an extension of the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model that allows substitutions with varying rates across the species tree. We present CASTLES, a new technique for estimating branch lengths on the species tree from estimated gene trees that uses these expected values, and our study shows that CASTLES improves on the most accurate prior methods with respect to both speed and accuracy.
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Abstract Background Divergence time estimation is fundamental to understanding many aspects of the evolution of organisms, such as character evolution, diversification, and biogeography. With the development of sequence technology, improved analytical methods, and knowledge of fossils for calibration, it is possible to obtain robust molecular dating results. However, while phylogenomic datasets show great promise in phylogenetic estimation, the best ways to leverage the large amounts of data for divergence time estimation has not been well explored. A potential solution is to focus on a subset of data for divergence time estimation, which can significantly reduce the computational burdens and avoid problems with data heterogeneity that may bias results.
Results In this study, we obtained thousands of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) from 130 extant galliform taxa, including representatives of all genera, to determine the divergence times throughout galliform history. We tested the effects of different “gene shopping” schemes on divergence time estimation using a carefully, and previously validated, set of fossils. Our results found commonly used clock-like schemes may not be suitable for UCE dating (or other data types) where some loci have little information. We suggest use of partitioning (e.g., PartitionFinder) and selection of tree-like partitions may be good strategies to select a subset of data for divergence time estimation from UCEs. Our galliform time tree is largely consistent with other molecular clock studies of mitochondrial and nuclear loci. With our increased taxon sampling, a well-resolved topology, carefully vetted fossil calibrations, and suitable molecular dating methods, we obtained a high quality galliform time tree.
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Abstract Aim To test the importance of alternative diversification drivers and biogeographical processes for the evolution of Amazonian upland forest birds through a densely sampled analysis of diversification of the endemic Amazonian genus
Rhegmatorhina at multiple taxonomic and temporal scales.Location Amazonia.
Taxon Antbirds (Thamnophilidae).
Methods We sequenced four mt
DNA and nuclear gene regions of 120 individuals from 50 localities representing all recognized species and subspecies of the genus. We performed molecular phylogenetic analyses using both gene tree and species tree methods, molecular dating analysis and estimated population demographic history and gene flow.Results Dense sampling throughout the distribution of
Rhegmatorhina revealed that the main Amazonian rivers delimit the geographic distribution of taxa as inferred from mtDNA lineages. Molecular phylogenetic analyses resulted in a strongly supported phylogenetic hypothesis for the genus, with two main clades currently separated by the Madeira River. Molecular dating analysis indicated diversification during the Quaternary. Reconstruction of recent demographic history of populations revealed a trend for population expansion in eastern Amazonia and stability in the west. Estimates of gene flow corroborate the possibility that migration after divergence had some influence on the current patterns of diversity.Main Conclusions Based on broad‐scale sampling, a clarification of taxonomic boundaries, and strongly supported phylogenetic relationships, we confirm that, first, mitochondrial lineages within this upland forest Amazonian bird genus agree with spatial patterns known for decades based on phenotypes, and second, that most lineages are geographically delimited by the large Amazonian rivers. The association between past demographic changes related to palaeoclimatic cycles and the historically varying strength and size of rivers as barriers to dispersal may be the path to the answer to the long‐standing question of identifying the main drivers of Amazonian diversification.
