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1. Disparities in self-reported extreme weather impacts by race, ethnicity, and income in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000026  

   Zanocco, Chad; Flora, June; Boudet, Hilary (June 2022, PLOS Climate)

   Giannini, Alessandra (Ed.)

   Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change. However, we lack an understanding of how recent extreme weather events have impacted the U.S. population. We surveyed a representative sample of the U.S. public (n = 1071) in September 2021 about self-reported impacts they experienced from six types of extreme weather events within the past three years. We find that an overwhelming majority (86%) of the U.S. public reported being at least slightly impacted by an extreme weather event, and one-third (34%) reported being either very or extremely impacted by one or more types of extreme weather events. We clustered respondents into four impact groups, representing a composite of self-reported impacts from multiple types of extreme weather events. Respondents in the highest extreme weather impact group are more than 2.5 times as likely to identify as Black or Hispanic and 1.89 times more likely to live in a household with income levels below the Federal poverty level. We also observe reports of higher extreme weather impacts from respondents who are female, do not have a bachelor’s degree and live in a rural area. Our results indicate that extreme weather impacts are being felt by a broad cross-section of the U.S. public, with the highest impacts being disproportionately reported by populations that have previously been found to be more vulnerable to natural disasters and other extreme events. 

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2. The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in South Florida

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100625  

   Ali, Javed; Wahl, Thomas; Enriquez, Alejandra R; Rashid, Md Mamunur; Morim, Joao; Gall, Melanie; Emrich, Christopher T (December 2023, Weather and Climate Extremes)

   Natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires cause devastating socio-economic impacts on communities. In South Florida, most of these hazards are becoming increasingly frequent and severe because of the warming climate, and changes in vulnerability and exposure, resulting in significant damage to infrastructure, homes, and businesses. To better understand the drivers of these impacts, we developed a bottom-up impact-based methodology that takes into account all relevant drivers for different types of hazards. We identify the specific drivers that co-occurred with socio-economic impacts and determine whether these extreme events were caused by single or multiple hydrometeorological drivers (i.e., compound events). We consider six types of natural hazards: hurricanes, severe storm/thunderstorms, floods, heatwaves, wildfire, and winter weather. Using historical, socio-economic loss data along with observations and reanalysis data for hydrometeorological drivers, we analyze how often these drivers contributed to the impacts of natural hazards in South Florida. We find that for each type of hazard, the relative importance of the drivers varies depending on the severity of the event. For example, wind speed is a key driver of the socio-economic impacts of hurricanes, while precipitation is a key driver of the impacts of flooding. We find that most of the high-impact events in South Florida were compound events, where multiple drivers contributed to the occurrences and impacts of the events. For example, more than 50% of the recorded flooding events were compound events and these contributed to 99% of total property damages and 98% of total crop damages associated with flooding in Miami-Dade County. Our results provide valuable insights into the drivers of natural hazard impacts in South Florida and can inform the development of more effective risk reduction strategies for improving the preparedness and resilience of the region against extreme events. Our bottom-up impact-based methodology can be applied to other regions and hazard types, allowing for more comprehensive and accurate assessments of the impacts of compound hazards. 

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3. Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108124119  

   Stevenson, Samantha; Coats, Sloan; Touma, Danielle; Cole, Julia; Lehner, Flavio; Fasullo, John; Otto-Bliesner, Bette (March 2022, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes. 

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4. Anthropogenic Influence on Recent Severe Autumn Fire Weather in the West Coast of the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095496  

   Hawkins, Linnia R.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Li, Sihan; Rupp, David E. (February 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Extreme wind‐driven autumn wildfires are hazardous to life and property, due to their rapid rate of spread. Recent catastrophic autumn wildfires in the western United States co‐occurred with record‐ or near‐record autumn fire weather indices that are a byproduct of extreme fuel dryness and strong offshore dry winds. Here, we use a formal, probabilistic, extreme event attribution analysis to investigate the anthropogenic influence on extreme autumn fire weather in 2017 and 2018. We show that while present‐day anthropogenic climate change has slightly decreased the prevalence of strong offshore downslope winds, it has increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather indices by 40% in areas where recent autumn wind‐driven fires have occurred in northern California and Oregon. The increase was primarily through increased autumn fuel aridity and warmer temperatures during dry wind events. These findings illustrate that anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating autumn fire weather extremes that contribute to high‐impact catastrophic fires in populated regions of the western US. 

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5. Synoptic Connections and Impacts of 14-Day Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0174.1  

   Schroers, Melanie; Martin, Elinor (July 2022, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology)

   Abstract Long periods of extreme precipitation can cause costly damages to a region’s infrastructure while also creating a higher risk for the region’s population. Planning for these periods would ideally begin at the subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale, yet prediction of precipitation at this time scale has low skill. In this study, we will use Jennrich et al.’s database of 14-day extreme precipitation events to understand more about the synoptic connections and impacts of these extended extreme events. The synoptic connections of events were examined using the composites of event-day 500-hPa geopotential height and precipitable water anomalies. The combination of these two drivers leads to higher skill in the West Coast and Great Lakes than other regions, with an equitable threat score of 0.137 and 0.084, respectively, and higher conditional probabilities of event occurrence. Therefore, the synoptic patterns associated with events, although significant, are not unique, which poses prediction challenges. Historical impacts of these events, using NCEI storm reports, were assessed to benefit decision-makers in future risk mitigation. A variety of reports were found during events, from winter weather reports in West Coast events to tropical storm reports in Southeast events. Every region has significantly more flooding reports during events than in nonextreme 14-day periods, demonstrating the impacts of such extended events. Although there is still much to learn about extreme precipitation events, this study contributes to the foundational knowledge of synoptic drivers and impacts of events. 

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