This paper explores three different model components to improve predictive performance over the ViEWS benchmark: a class of neural networks that account for spatial and temporal dependencies; the use of CAMEO-coded event data; and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS), which is a proper scoring metric. We forecast changes in state based violence across Africa at the grid-month level. The results show that spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network models offer consistent improvements over the benchmark. The CAMEO-coded event data sometimes improve performance, but sometimes decrease performance. Finally, the choice of performance metric, whether it be the mean squared error or a proper metric such as the CRPS, has an impact on model selection. Each of these components–algorithms, measures, and metrics–can improve our forecasts and understanding of violence.
more »
« less
Social stratification in networks: insights from co-authorship networks
It has been observed that real-world social networks often exhibit stratification along economic or other lines, with consequences for class mobility and access to opportunities. With the rise in human interaction data and extensive use of online social networks, the structure of social networks (representing connections between individuals) can be used for measuring stratification. However, although stratification has been studied extensively in the social sciences, there is no single, generally applicable metric for measuring the level of stratification in a network. In this work, we first propose the novel Stratification Assortativity (StA) metric, which measures the extent to which a network is stratified into different tiers. Then, we use the StA metric to perform an in-depth analysis of the stratification of five co-authorship networks. We examine the evolution of these networks over 50 years and show that these fields demonstrate an increasing level of stratification over time, and, correspondingly, the trajectory of a researcher’s career is increasingly correlated with her entry point into the network.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1908048
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10462520
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 198
- ISSN:
- 1742-5662
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
In this work, we study the mechanical behavior of non-crosslinked networks of fibers that interact adhe- sively. Adhesion drives fiber organization into bundles and a network of fiber bundles forms as a result of this process. Bundles split and re-connect forming specific triangular features at all bundle intersections, with role in network stabilization. The structure of such networks has been discussed in the literature, but their mechanics remains largely unexplored. We show here that such networks are exceptionally sta- ble, and despite the absence of crosslinks between fibers behave, at relatively small strains, essentially similar to crosslinked networks, in which the role of crosslinks is played by the triangular structures at bundle intersections. We also provide new results regarding the effect of the network architecture on the type of strain stiffening observed in tension. The results apply to carbon nanotube structures, such as buckypaper, and various connective biological tissue in which collagen fibrils form bundles and the tissue is a network of collagen fibril bundles.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Genealogical networks (i.e. family trees) are of growing interest, with the largest known data sets now including well over one billion individuals. Interest in family history also supports an 8.5 billion dollar industry whose size is projected to double within 7 years [FutureWise report HC-1137]. Yet little mathematical attention has been paid to the complex network properties of genealogical networks, especially at large scales. The structure of genealogical networks is of particular interest due to the practice of forming unions, e.g. marriages, that are typically well outside one’s immediate family. In most other networks, including other social networks, no equivalent restriction exists on the distance at which relationships form. To study the effect this has on genealogical networks we use persistent homology to identify and compare the structure of 101 genealogical and 31 other social networks. Specifically, we introduce the notion of a network’s persistence curve, which encodes the network’s set of persistence intervals. We find that the persistence curves of genealogical networks have a distinct structure when compared to other social networks. This difference in structure also extends to subnetworks of genealogical and social networks suggesting that, even with incomplete data, persistent homology can be used to meaningfully analyze genealogical networks. Here we also describe how concepts from genealogical networks, such as common ancestor cycles, are represented using persistent homology. We expect that persistent homology tools will become increasingly important in genealogical exploration as popular interest in ancestry research continues to expand.
-
more » « less
Abstract Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences, although a common limitation of their usage has been a lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have often been used within the geosciences to most accurately identify a desired output given a set of inputs, with the interpretation of what the network learns used as a secondary metric to ensure the network is making the right decision for the right reason. Neural network interpretation techniques have become more advanced in recent years, however, and we therefore propose that the ultimate objective of using a neural network can also be the interpretation of what the network has learned rather than the output itself. We show that the interpretation of neural networks can enable the discovery of scientifically meaningful connections within geoscientific data. In particular, we use two methods for neural network interpretation called backward optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, both of which project the decision pathways of a network back onto the original input dimensions. To the best of our knowledge, LRP has not yet been applied to geoscientific research, and we believe it has great potential in this area. We show how these interpretation techniques can be used to reliably infer scientifically meaningful information from neural networks by applying them to common climate patterns. These results suggest that combining interpretable neural networks with novel scientific hypotheses will open the door to many new avenues in neural network‐related geoscience research.
-
null (Ed.)Abstract The spatial distribution of population affects disease transmission, especially when shelter in place orders restrict mobility for a large fraction of the population. The spatial network structure of settlements therefore imposes a fundamental constraint on the spatial distribution of the population through which a communicable disease can spread. In this analysis we use the spatial network structure of lighted development as a proxy for the distribution of ambient population to compare the spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the USA and China. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band sensor on the NASA/NOAA Suomi satellite has been imaging night light at ~ 700 m resolution globally since 2012. Comparisons with sub-kilometer resolution census observations in different countries across different levels of development indicate that night light luminance scales with population density over ~ 3 orders of magnitude. However, VIIRS’ constant ~ 700 m resolution can provide a more detailed representation of population distribution in peri-urban and rural areas where aggregated census blocks lack comparable spatial detail. By varying the low luminance threshold of VIIRS-derived night light, we depict spatial networks of lighted development of varying degrees of connectivity within which populations are distributed. The resulting size distributions of spatial network components (connected clusters of nodes) vary with degree of connectivity, but maintain consistent scaling over a wide range (5 × to 10 × in area & number) of network sizes. At continental scales, spatial network rank-size distributions obtained from VIIRS night light brightness are well-described by power laws with exponents near −2 (slopes near −1) for a wide range of low luminance thresholds. The largest components (10 4 to 10 5 km 2 ) represent spatially contiguous agglomerations of urban, suburban and periurban development, while the smallest components represent isolated rural settlements. Projecting county and city-level numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the USA and China (respectively) onto the corresponding spatial networks of lighted development allows the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic (infection and detection) to be quantified as propagation within networks of varying connectivity. Results for China show rapid nucleation and diffusion in January 2020 followed by rapid decreases in new cases in February. While most of the largest cities in China showed new confirmed cases approaching zero before the end of February, most of these cities also showed distinct second waves of cases in March or April. Whereas new cases in Wuhan did not approach zero until mid-March, as of December 2020 it has not yet experienced a second wave of cases. In contrast, the results for the USA show a wide range of trajectories, with an abrupt transition from slow increases in confirmed cases in a small number of network components in January and February, to rapid geographic dispersion to a larger number of components shortly before mobility reductions occurred in March. Results indicate that while most of the upper tail of the network had been exposed by the end of March, the lower tail of the component size distribution has only shown steep increases since mid-June.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2022.0555
