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Landslides are a significant hazard and dominant feature throughout the landscape of the Pacific Northwest. However, the hazard and risk posed by coseismic landslides triggered by great Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes is highly uncertain due to a lack of local and global data. Despite a wealth of other geologic evidence for past earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, no landslides have been definitively linked to such earthquakes, even in areas otherwise highly susceptible to failure. While shallow landslides may not leave a lasting topographical signature in the landscape, there are thousands of deep-seated landslides in Cascadia, and these deposits often persist for hundreds of years and multiple earthquake cycles. Synthesizing newly developed inventories of dated large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range, we use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of these types of landslides that could have been triggered during past great Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes. Statistical analysis of high-precision dendrochronology ages of landslide-dammed lakes and surface roughness-dated bedrock landslides reveal Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes may have triggered 0–15 % of large deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range over multiple earthquake cycles. Our results refine estimates from previous studies and further suggest that coseismic triggering accounts for a small fraction of the total deep-seated bedrock landslides mapped in coastal Cascadia. However, if the real rate of coseismic landslide triggering during CSZ earthquakes is near our estimated upper bound for the 1700 CSZ earthquake, we estimate up to 2400 coseismic large deep-seated landslides could occur in the Oregon Coast Range in a single earthquake. These findings suggest Cascadia is consistent with global observations from other subduction zones and that coseismic landslides may still represent a serious geohazard in the region.
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Toward Models of Impact and Recovery of the US Western Grid from Earthquake Events
A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake will cause widespread damage to numerous lifelines and infrastructure along the northern US west coast. The goal of the presented research is to provide a bottom up estimate of the impact on and subsequent recovery of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake on the US western grid to supplement and enhance the expert opinion estimates provided to date. The scope is limited to only consideration of shaking damage to utility substation equipment components of a power system model. The analysis utilizes probabilistic models of damage and recovery for substation power system assets, along with graph techniques for modeling connectivity, and Monte Carlo quasi steady state power flow solutions. The results show that a conservative estimate of the initial damage and loss of load is approximately 4000 MW, with a recovery estimate of 230 days.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1933217
- PAR ID:
- 10463673
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Energies
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 1996-1073
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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SUMMARY A new amphibious seismic data set from the Cascadia subduction zone is used to characterize the lithosphere structure from the Juan de Fuca ridge to the Cascades backarc. These seismic data are allowing the imaging of an entire tectonic plate from its creation at the ridge through the onset of the subduction to beyond the volcanic arc, along the entire strike of the Cascadia subduction zone. We develop a tilt and compliance correction procedure for ocean-bottom seismometers that employs automated quality control to calculate robust station noise properties. To elucidate crust and upper-mantle structure, we present shoreline-crossing Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity maps for the Cascadia subduction zone, calculated from earthquake data from 20 to 160 s period and from ambient-noise correlations from 9 to 20 s period. We interpret the phase-velocity maps in terms of the tectonics associated with the Juan de Fuca plate history and the Cascadia subduction system. We find that thermal oceanic plate cooling models cannot explain velocity anomalies observed beneath the Juan de Fuca plate. Instead, they may be explained by a ≤1 per cent partial melt region beneath the ridge and are spatially collocated with patches of hydration and increased faulting in the crust and upper mantle near the deformation front. In the forearc, slow velocities appear to be more prevalent in areas that experienced high slip in past Cascadia megathrust earthquakes and generally occur updip of the highest-density tremor regions and locations of intraplate earthquakes. Beneath the volcanic arc, the slowest phase velocities correlate with regions of highest magma production volume.more » « less
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Abstract Interseismic coupling maps and, especially, estimates of the location of the fully coupled (locked) zone relative to the trench, coastline, and slow slip events are crucial for determining megathrust earthquake hazard at subduction zones. We present an interseismic coupling inversion that estimates the locations of the upper and lower boundaries of the locked zone, the lower boundary of the deep transition zone, and downdip gradient of creep rate in the transition from locked to freely creeping in the downdip transition zone. We show that the locked zone at Cascadia is west of the coastline and 10 km updip of the slow slip zone along much of the margin, widest (25–125 km, extending to ∼19 km depth) in northern Cascadia, narrowest (0–70 km) in central Cascadia, with moment accumulation rate equivalent to a Mw8.71 and Mw8.85 earthquake for 300‐ and 500‐year earthquake cycles. We find a steep gradient in creep immediately below the locked zone, indicative of propagating creep, along the entire margin. At Nankai, we find three distinct zones of locking (offshore Shikoku, offshore southeast Kii peninsula, and offshore Shima peninsula) with a total moment accumulation rate equivalent to a Mw8.70 earthquake for a 150‐year earthquake cycle. The bottom of the locked zone is nearly under the coastline for all three locked regions at Nankai and is positioned 0–5 km updip of the slow slip zone. In contrast with Cascadia, creep rate gradients below the locked zone at Nankai are generally gradual, consistent with stationary locking.more » « less
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Abstract From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred ‐ the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will initiate, what conditions are favorable for rupture to span the convergent margin, and how much slip may be expected. We develop the first 3‐D fully dynamic rupture simulations for the Cascadia subduction zone that are driven by fault stress, strength and friction to address these questions. The initial dynamic stress drop distribution in our simulations is constrained by geodetic coupling models, with segment locations taken from geologic analyses. We document the sensitivity of nucleation location and stress drop to the final seismic moment and coseismic subsidence amplitudes. We find that the final earthquake size strongly depends on the amount of slip deficit in the central Cascadia region, which is inferred to be creeping interseismically, for a given initiation location in southern or northern Cascadia. Several simulations are also presented here that can closely approximate recorded coastal subsidence from the 1700 A.D. event without invoking localized high‐stress asperities along the down‐dip locked region of the megathrust. These results can be used to inform earthquake and tsunami hazards for not only Cascadia, but other subduction zones that have limited seismic observations but a wealth of geodetic inference.more » « less
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Tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone present a major hazard concern. We can better prepare to model the earthquake source in a rapid manner by imbuing fault geometry constraints based on prior knowledge and by evaluating the capabilities of using existing GNSS sensors. Near-field GNSS waveforms have shown promise in providing rapid coarse finite-fault model approximations of the earthquake rupture that can improve tsunami modeling and response time. In this study, we explore the performance of GNSS derived finite-fault inversions and tsunami forecasting predictions in Cascadia that highlights the impact and potential of geodetic techniques and data in operational earthquake and tsunami monitoring. We utilized 1300 Cascadia earthquake simulations (FakeQuakes) that provide realistic (M7.5-9.3) rupture scenarios to assess how feasibly finite-fault models can be obtained in a rapid earthquake early warning and tsunami response context. A series of fault models with rectangular dislocation patches spanning the Cascadia megathrust area is added to the GFAST inversion algorithm to calculate slip for each earthquake scenario. Another method used to constrain the finite-fault geometry is from the GNSS-derived CMT fault plane solution. For the Cascadia region, we show that fault discretization using two rectangular segments approximating the megathrust portion of the subduction zone leads to improvements in modeling magnitude, fault slip, tsunami amplitude, and inundation. In relation to tsunami forecasting capabilities, we compare coastal amplitude predictions spanning from Vancouver Island (Canada) to Northern California (USA). Generally, the coastal amplitudes derived using fault parameters from the CMT solutions show an overestimation bias compared to amplitudes derived from the fixed slab model. We also see improved prediction values of the run-up height and maximum amplitude at 10 tide gauge stations using the fixed slab model as well.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249275
