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  1. Abstract

    The LAGOS‐US RESERVOIR data module classifies all 137,465 lakes ≥ 4 ha in the conterminous U.S. into three categories using a machine learning predictive model based on visual interpretation of lake outlines and a lake shape classification rule. Natural Lakes (NLs) are defined as naturally formed, lacking large, flow‐altering structures; Reservoir Class A's (RSVR_A) are defined as lakes likely human‐made or human‐altered by a large water control structure; and Reservoir Class B's (RSVR_Bs) are lakes likely human‐made but are not connected to streams and have a shape rare in NLs. We trained machine learning models on 12,162 manually classified lakes to predict assignment as an NL or RSVR, then further classified RSVRs based on NHD Fcodes, isolation, and angularity. Our classification indicates that > 46% of lakes ≥ 4 ha in the conterminous U.S. are reservoir lakes. These data can be easily combined with other LAGOS‐US modules and U.S. national databases for the broad‐scale study of reservoir lakes and NLs.

     
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  2. Abstract

    Maintaining regional‐scale freshwater connectivity is challenging due to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake‐stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse‐filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake‐stream networks across the conterminous United States based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., hubs; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north–south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of six lakes, 7.2 km north–south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous United States currently may be diminished compared with smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8%–18% and 6%–20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western United States. Our results indicate that conterminous United States protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well‐connected set of fresh waters (≥17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change.

     
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  3. Abstract

    Ponds are often identified by their small size and shallow depths, but the lack of a universal evidence-based definition hampers science and weakens legal protection. Here, we compile existing pond definitions, compare ecosystem metrics (e.g., metabolism, nutrient concentrations, and gas fluxes) among ponds, wetlands, and lakes, and propose an evidence-based pond definition. Compiled definitions often mentioned surface area and depth, but were largely qualitative and variable. Government legislation rarely defined ponds, despite commonly using the term. Ponds, as defined in published studies, varied in origin and hydroperiod and were often distinct from lakes and wetlands in water chemistry. We also compared how ecosystem metrics related to three variables often seen in waterbody definitions: waterbody size, maximum depth, and emergent vegetation cover. Most ecosystem metrics (e.g., water chemistry, gas fluxes, and metabolism) exhibited nonlinear relationships with these variables, with average threshold changes at 3.7 ± 1.8 ha (median: 1.5 ha) in surface area, 5.8 ± 2.5 m (median: 5.2 m) in depth, and 13.4 ± 6.3% (median: 8.2%) emergent vegetation cover. We use this evidence and prior definitions to define ponds as waterbodies that are small (< 5 ha), shallow (< 5 m), with < 30% emergent vegetation and we highlight areas for further study near these boundaries. This definition will inform the science, policy, and management of globally abundant and ecologically significant pond ecosystems.

     
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  4. Abstract

    Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the seasonal temperature cycle. However, an often overlooked feature of the climate seasonal cycle is the semi‐annual harmonic, which can account for a significant portion of the variance of the seasonal cycle and varies in amplitude and phase across space. Together, the spatial variation in the annual and semi‐annual harmonics can play an important role in driving processes that are tied to seasonality (e.g., ecological and agricultural processes). We propose a multivariate spatiotemporal model to quantify the spatial and temporal change in minimum and maximum temperature seasonal cycles as a function of the annual and semi‐annual harmonics. Our approach captures spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and multivariate dependence of these harmonics through spatially and temporally varying coefficients. We apply the model to minimum and maximum temperature over North American for the years 1979–2018. Formal model inference within the Bayesian paradigm enables the identification of regions experiencing significant changes in minimum and maximum temperature seasonal cycles due to the relative effects of changes in the two harmonics.

     
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  5. Abstract

    Multiple studies have reported widespread browning of Northern Hemisphere lakes. Most examples are from boreal lakes that have experienced limited human influence, and browning has alternatively been attributed to changes in atmospheric deposition, climate, and land use. To determine the extent and possible causes of browning across a more geographically diverse region, we examined watercolor and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) time series in hundreds of northeastern U.S. lakes. The majority of lakes have increased in both DOC and color, but there were neither coherent spatial patterns in trends nor relationships with previously reported drivers. Color trends were more variable than DOC trends, and DOC and color trends were not strongly correlated, indicating a cause other than or in addition to increased loading of terrestrial carbon. Browning may be pronounced in regions where climate and atmospheric deposition are dominant drivers but muted in more human‐dominated landscapes with a limited extent of organic soils where other disturbances predominate.

     
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  6. Abstract Aim

    We aimed to measure the dominant spatial patterns in ecosystem properties (such as nutrients and measures of primary production) and the multi‐scaled geographical driver variables of these properties and to quantify how the spatial structure of pattern in all of these variables influences the strength of relationships among them.

    Location and time period

    We studied > 8,500 lakes in a 1.8 million km2area of Northeast U.S.A. Data comprised 10‐year medians (2002–2011) for measured ecosystem properties, long‐term climate averages and recent land use/land cover variables.

    Major taxa studied

    We focused on ecosystem properties at the base of aquatic food webs, including concentrations of nutrients and algal pigments that are proxies of primary productivity.

    Methods

    We quantified spatial structure in ecosystem properties and their geographical driver variables using distance‐based Moran eigenvector maps (dbMEMs). We then compared the similarity in spatial structure for all pairs of variables with the correlation between variables to illustrate how spatial structure constrains relationships among ecosystem properties.

    Results

    The strength of spatial structure decreased in order for climate, land cover/use, lake ecosystem properties and lake and landscape morphometry. Having a comparable spatial structure is a necessary condition to observe a strong relationship between a pair of variables, but not a sufficient one; variables with very different spatial structure are never strongly correlated. Lake ecosystem properties tended to have an intermediary spatial structure compared with that of their main drivers, probably because climate and landscape variables with known ecological links induce spatial patterns.

    Main conclusion

    Our empirical results describe inherent spatial constraints that dictate the expected relationships between ecosystem properties and their geographical drivers at macroscales. Our results also suggest that understanding the spatial scales at which ecological processes operate is necessary to predict the effects of multi‐scaled environmental changes on ecosystem properties.

     
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  7. Abstract

    Given how important lakes are to people, it might seem safe to assume that careful thought has been put into the naming of lakes, and that lake names reflect the high societal value people place on lakes. We examined these assumptions by analyzing the official names in the U.S. Geographic Names Information System for the 479,950 lakes ≥ 1 ha in the conterminous U.S. We found that 83% of lakes were unnamed and most of these were small lakes with 80% of unnamed lakes being smaller than 4 ha. Based on the 83,115 named lakes, we found that lake names reflect peoples' everyday lives, that lakes can inspire creativity (although the most common lake name is “Mud”), that Native American and indigenous languages have played a role in lake naming, and that there are regional differences in lake names. Unfortunately, we also found that derogatory terms were part of some lake names. We advocate for thoughtful and inclusive official naming of the 400,000 unnamed lakes in the U.S., as well as renaming of the lakes with derogatory terms to help focus attention on the importance of lakes to local communities and nations.

     
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  8. Abstract

    Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) theory has largely focused on species richness, although studies have demonstrated that evenness may have stronger effects. While theory and numerous small‐scale studies support positive BEF relationships, regional studies have documented negative effects of evenness on ecosystem functioning. We analysed a lake dataset spanning the continental US to evaluate whether strong evenness effects are common at broad spatial scales and if BEF relationships are similar across diverse regions and trophic levels. At the continental scale, phytoplankton evenness explained more variance in phytoplankton and zooplankton resource use efficiency (RUE; ratio of biomass to resources) than richness. For individual regions, slopes of phytoplankton evenness–RUE relationships were consistently negative and positive for phytoplankton and zooplankton RUE, respectively, and most slopes did not significantly differ among regions. Findings suggest that negative evenness effects may be more common than previously documented and are not exceptions restricted to highly disturbed systems.

     
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  9. Abstract

    Agricultural land use is typically associated with high stream nutrient concentrations and increased nutrient loading to lakes. For lakes, evidence for these associations mostly comes from studies on individual lakes or watersheds that relate concentrations of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) to aggregate measures of agricultural land use, such as the proportion of land used for agriculture in a lake’s watershed. However, at macroscales (i.e., in hundreds to thousands of lakes across large spatial extents), there is high variability around such relationships and it is unclear whether considering more granular (or detailed) agricultural data, such as fertilizer application, planting of specific crops, or the extent of near‐stream cropping, would improve prediction and inform understanding of lake nutrient drivers. Furthermore, it is unclear whether lake N and P would have different relationships to such measures and whether these relationships would vary by region, since regional variation has been observed in prior studies using aggregate measures of agriculture. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined relationships between granular measures of agricultural activity and lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in 928 lakes and their watersheds in the Northeastern and Midwest U.S. using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach. We found that both lake TN and TP concentrations were related to these measures of agriculture, especially near‐stream agriculture. The relationships between measures of agriculture and lake TN concentrations were more regionally variable than those for TP. Conversely, TP concentrations were more strongly related to lake‐specific measures like depth and watershed hydrology relative to TN. Our finding that lake TN and TP concentrations have different relationships with granular measures of agricultural activity has implications for the design of effective and efficient policy approaches to maintain and improve water quality.

     
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  10. Abstract

    Although spatial and temporal variation in ecological properties has been well‐studied, crucial knowledge gaps remain for studies conducted at macroscales and for ecosystem properties related to material and energy. We test four propositions of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem properties within a macroscale (1000 km's) extent. We fit Bayesian hierarchical models to thousands of observations from over two decades to quantify four components of variation – spatial (local and regional) and temporal (local and coherent); and to model their drivers. We found strong support for three propositions: (1) spatial variation at local and regional scales are large and roughly equal, (2) annual temporal variation is mostly local rather than coherent, and, (3) spatial variation exceeds temporal variation. Our findings imply that predicting ecosystem responses to environmental changes at macroscales requires consideration of the dominant spatial signals at both local and regional scales that may overwhelm temporal signals.

     
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