More Like this

1. Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transit Accessibility and Ridership

   Wilbur, Michael; Ayman, Afiya; Ouyang, Anna; Kabir, Riyan; Vadali, Abhiram; Pugliese, Philip; Freudberg, Dan; Laszka, Aron; Dubey, Abhishek (January 2021, Publications Transportation Research Board)

   null (Ed.)

   Public transit is central to cultivating equitable communities. Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 and associated social restrictions has radically transformed ridership behavior in urban areas. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic is that low-income and historically marginalized groups are not only the most susceptible to economic shifts but are also most reliant on public transportation. As revenue decreases, transit agencies are tasked with providing adequate public transportation services in an increasingly hostile economic environment. Transit agencies therefore have two primary concerns. First, how has COVID-19 impacted ridership and what is the new post-COVID normal? Second, how has ridership varied spatio-temporally and between socio-economic groups? In this work we provide a data-driven analysis of COVID-19’s affect on public transit operations and identify temporal variation in ridership change. We then combine spatial distributions of ridership decline with local economic data to identify variation between socio-economic groups. We find that in Nashville and Chattanooga, TN, fixed-line bus ridership dropped by 66.9% and 65.1% from 2019 baselines before stabilizing at 48.4% and 42.8% declines respectively. The largest declines were during morning and evening commute time. Additionally, there was a significant difference in ridership decline between the highest-income areas and lowest-income areas (77% vs 58%) in Nashville. 

   more » « less
2. Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transit Accessibility and Ridership

   Wilbur, Michael; Ayman, Afiya; Ouyang, Anna; Kabir, Riyan; Vadali, Abhiram; Pugliese, Philip; Freudberg, Dan; Laszka, Aron; Dubey, Abhishek (January 2021, Publications Transportation Research Board)

   null (Ed.)

   Public transit is central to cultivating equitable communities. Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 and associated social restrictions has radically transformed ridership behavior in urban areas. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic is that low-income and historically marginalized groups are not only the most susceptible to economic shifts but are also most reliant on public transportation. As revenue decreases, transit agencies are tasked with providing adequate public transportation services in an increasingly hostile economic environment. Transit agencies therefore have two primary concerns. First, how has COVID-19 impacted ridership and what is the new post-COVID normal? Second, how has ridership varied spatio-temporally and between socio-economic groups? In this work we provide a data-driven analysis of COVID-19’s affect on public transit operations and identify temporal variation in ridership change. We then combine spatial distributions of ridership decline with local economic data to identify variation between socio-economic groups. We find that in Nashville and Chattanooga, TN, fixed-line bus ridership dropped by 66.9% and 65.1% from 2019 baselines before stabilizing at 48.4% and 42.8% declines respectively. The largest declines were during morning and evening commute time. Additionally, there was a significant difference in ridership decline between the highest-income areas and lowest-income areas (77% vs 58%) in Nashville. 

   more » « less
3. Predicting Public Transportation Load to Estimate the Probability of Social Distancing Violations

   Martinez, Juan; Mukhopadhyay, Ayan; Ayman, Afiya; Wilbur, Michael; Pugliese, Philip; Freudberg, Dan; Laszka, Aron; Dubey, Abhishek (January 2021, Proceedings of the Workshop on AI for Urban Mobility at the 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   Public transit agencies struggle to maintain transit accessibility with reduced resources, unreliable ridership data, reduced vehicle capacities due to social distancing, and reduced services due to driver unavailability. In collaboration with transit agencies from two large metropolitan areas in the USA, we are designing novel approaches for addressing the afore-mentioned challenges by collecting accurate real-time ridership data, providing guidance to commuters, and performing operational optimization for public transit. We estimate rider-ship data using historical automated passenger counting data, conditional on a set of relevant determinants. Accurate ridership forecasting is essential to optimize the public transit schedule, which is necessary to improve current fixed lines with on-demand transit. Also, passenger crowding has been a problem for public transportation since it deteriorates passengers’ wellbeing and satisfaction. During the COVID-19 pandemic, passenger crowding has gained importance since it represents a risk for social distancing violations. Therefore, we are creating optimization models to ensure that social distancing norms can be adequately followed while ensuring that the total demand for transit is met. We will then use accurate forecasts for operational optimization that includes (a) proactive fixed-line schedule optimization based on predicted demand, (b) dispatch of on-demand micro-transit, prioritizing at-risk populations, and (c) allocation of vehicles to transit and cargo trips, considering exigent vehicle maintenance requirements (i.e., disinfection). Finally, this paper presents some initial results from our project regarding the estimation of ridership in public transit. 

   more » « less
4. Predicting Public Transportation Load to Estimate the Probability of Social Distancing Violations

   Martinez, Juan; Mukhopadhyay, Ayan; Ayman, Afiya; Wilbur, Michael; Pugliese, Philip; Freudberg, Dan; Laszka, Aron; Dubey, Abhishek (January 2021, Proceedings of the Workshop on AI for Urban Mobility at the 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   null (Ed.)

   Public transit agencies struggle to maintain transit accessibility with reduced resources, unreliable ridership data, reduced vehicle capacities due to social distancing, and reduced services due to driver unavailability. In collaboration with transit agencies from two large metropolitan areas in the USA, we are designing novel approaches for addressing the afore-mentioned challenges by collecting accurate real-time ridership data, providing guidance to commuters, and performing operational optimization for public transit. We estimate rider-ship data using historical automated passenger counting data, conditional on a set of relevant determinants. Accurate ridership forecasting is essential to optimize the public transit schedule, which is necessary to improve current fixed lines with on-demand transit. Also, passenger crowding has been a problem for public transportation since it deteriorates passengers’ wellbeing and satisfaction. During the COVID-19 pandemic, passenger crowding has gained importance since it represents a risk for social distancing violations. Therefore, we are creating optimization models to ensure that social distancing norms can be adequately followed while ensuring that the total demand for transit is met. We will then use accurate forecasts for operational optimization that includes \textit(a) proactive fixed-line schedule optimization based on predicted demand, \textit(b) dispatch of on-demand micro-transit, prioritizing at-risk populations, and \textit(c) allocation of vehicles to transit and cargo trips, considering exigent vehicle maintenance requirements (\textiti.e., disinfection). Finally, this paper presents some initial results from our project regarding the estimation of ridership in public transit. 

   more » « less
5. Multi-modal Machine Learning Investigation of Telework and Transit Connections

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s42421-024-00100-6  

   Edward, Deirdre; Soria, Jason; Stathopoulos, Amanda (August 2024, Data Science for Transportation)

   Public transit in the U.S. has an unsettled future. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a dramatic decline in transit ridership, with agency operations, and user perceptions of safety changing significantly. However, one new factor beyond the control of agencies is playing an outsized role in transit ridership: the shifting employment patterns in the hybrid work era. Indeed, a lasting and widespread adoption of telework has emerged as a key determinant of individual transit behaviors. This study investigates the impact of teleworking on public transit ridership changes across the different transit services in the Chicago area during the pandemic, employing a random forest machine learning approach applied to large-scale survey data (n = 5637). The use of ensemble machine learning enables a data-driven investigation that is tailored for each of the three main transit service operators in Chicago (Chicago Transit Authority, Metra, and Pace). The analysis reveals that the number of teleworking days per week is a highly significant predictor of lapsed ridership. As a result, commuter-centric transit modes—such as Metra—saw the greatest declines in ridership during the pandemic. The study's findings highlight the need for transit agencies to adapt to the enduring trend of teleworking, considering its implications for future ridership and transportation equity. Policy recommendations include promoting non-commute transit use and addressing the needs of demographic groups less likely to telework. The study contributes to the understanding of how telework trends influence public transit usage and offers insights for transit agencies navigating the post-pandemic world. 

   more » « less