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The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of an XGBoost model trained with behavioral, physiological, performance, environmental, and cow feature data for classifying cow health status (HS). The model predicted HS based on physical activity, resting, reticulo-rumen temperature, rumination and eating behavior, milk yield, conductivity and components, temperature and humidity index, parity, calving features, and stocking density. Daily at 5 a.m., the model generated a HS prediction [0 = no health disorder (HD); 1 = health disorder]. At 7 a.m., technicians blind to the prediction conducted clinical exams on cows from 3 to 11 DIM to classify cows (n = 625) as affected (HD = 1) or not (HD = 0) by metritis, mastitis, ketosis, indigestion, displaced abomasum, and pneumonia. Using each day a cow presented clinical signs of HD as a positive case (i.e., HD = 1), metrics of performance (%; 95% CI) were: sensitivity (Se) = 57 [52, 62], specificity = 81 [80, 82]; positive predictive value (PPV) = 20 [18, 22], negative predictive value = 96 [95, 96], accuracy = 79 [78, 80], balanced accuracy = 69 [66, 72], F-1 Score = 29 [26, 32]. Sensitivity was also evaluated using fixed time intervals around clinical diagnosis of disease as a positive case (Table 1). Our findings suggest that the ability of an XGBoost algorithm trained on diverse sensor and nonsensor data to identify cows with HD was moderate when only days when cows presented clinical signs of disease were considered a positive case. Sensitivity and PPV can be improved substantially when all days within fixed intervals before and after clinical diagnosis are used as positive cases. Table 1 (Abstr. 2614). Sensitivity and PPV for an XGBoost algorithm trained to predict cow health status using fixed intervals before and after clinical diagnosis as positive cases Day relative to CD Se (%) 95% CI PPV (%) 95% CI −5 to 0 58 49, 67 21 16, 25 −3 to 0 55 46, 64 19 15, 24 −5 to 1 69 61, 78 24 20, 29 −5 to 3 81 73, 88 28 23, 33 −5 to 5 86 80, 92 30 25, 34 −3 to 1 67 58, 75 23 18, 27 −3 to 3 78 70, 86 27 22, 31 −3 to 5 83 76, 90 28 24, 33 0 to 3 75 68, 83 24 20, 29 0 to 5 81 73, 88 26 21, 31 −1 to 0 54 44, 63 18 14, 22 0 to 1 63 54, 72 20 16, 25 −1 to 1 66 57, 75 21 17, 26
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Use of machine-learning algorithms to aid in the early detection of leptospirosis in dogs
Leptospirosis is a life-threatening, zoonotic disease with various clinical presentations, including renal injury, hepatic injury, pancreatitis, and pulmonary hemorrhage. With prompt recognition of the disease and treatment, 90% of infected dogs have a positive outcome. Therefore, rapid, early diagnosis of leptospirosis is crucial. Testing for Leptospira-specific serum antibodies using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) lacks sensitivity early in the disease process, and diagnosis can take >2 wk because of the need to demonstrate a rise in titer. We applied machine-learning algorithms to clinical variables from the first day of hospitalization to create machine-learning prediction models (MLMs). The models incorporated patient signalment, clinicopathologic data (CBC, serum chemistry profile, and urinalysis = blood work [BW] model), with or without a MAT titer obtained at patient intake (=BW + MAT model). The models were trained with data from 91 dogs with confirmed leptospirosis and 322 dogs without leptospirosis. Once trained, the models were tested with a cohort of dogs not included in the model training (9 leptospirosis-positive and 44 leptospirosis-negative dogs), and performance was assessed. Both models predicted leptospirosis in the test set with 100% sensitivity (95% CI: 70.1–100%). Specificity was 90.9% (95% CI: 78.8–96.4%) and 93.2% (95% CI: 81.8–97.7%) for the BW and BW + MAT models, respectively. Our MLMs outperformed traditional acute serologic screening and can provide accurate early screening for the probable diagnosis of leptospirosis in dogs.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1934568
- PAR ID:
- 10466446
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1040-6387
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 612 to 621
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/10406387221096781
