Background Even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, children and adolescents were experiencing a mental health crisis, partly due to a lack of quality mental health services. The rate of suicide for Black youth has increased by 80%. By 2025, the health care system will be short of 225,000 therapists, further exacerbating the current crisis. Therefore, it is of utmost importance for providers, schools, youth mental health, and pediatric medical providers to integrate innovation in digital mental health to identify problems proactively and rapidly for effective collaboration with other health care providers. Such approaches can help identify robust, reproducible, and generalizable predictors and digital biomarkers of treatment response in psychiatry. Among the multitude of digital innovations to identify a biomarker for psychiatric diseases currently, as part of the macrolevel digital health transformation, speech stands out as an attractive candidate with features such as affordability, noninvasive, and nonintrusive. Objective The protocol aims to develop speech-emotion recognition algorithms leveraging artificial intelligence/machine learning, which can establish a link between trauma, stress, and voice types, including disrupting speech-based characteristics, and detect clinically relevant emotional distress and functional impairments in children and adolescents. Methods Informed by theoretical foundations (the Theory of Psychological Trauma Biomarkers and Archetypal Voice Categories), we developed our methodology to focus on 5 emotions: anger, happiness, fear, neutral, and sadness. Participants will be recruited from 2 local mental health centers that serve urban youths. Speech samples, along with responses to the Symptom and Functioning Severity Scale, Patient Health Questionnaire 9, and Adverse Childhood Experiences scales, will be collected using an Android mobile app. Our model development pipeline is informed by Gaussian mixture model (GMM), recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory. Results We tested our model with a public data set. The GMM with 128 clusters showed an evenly distributed accuracy across all 5 emotions. Using utterance-level features, GMM achieved an accuracy of 79.15% overall, while frame selection increased accuracy to 85.35%. This demonstrates that GMM is a robust model for emotion classification of all 5 emotions and that emotion frame selection enhances accuracy, which is significant for scientific evaluation. Recruitment and data collection for the study were initiated in August 2021 and are currently underway. The study results are likely to be available and published in 2024. Conclusions This study contributes to the literature as it addresses the need for speech-focused digital health tools to detect clinically relevant emotional distress and functional impairments in children and adolescents. The preliminary results show that our algorithm has the potential to improve outcomes. The findings will contribute to the broader digital health transformation. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/46970
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Predicting individual cases of major adolescent psychiatric conditions with artificial intelligence
Three-quarters of lifetime mental illness occurs by the age of 24, but relatively little is known about how to robustly identify youth at risk to target intervention efforts known to improve outcomes. Barriers to knowledge have included obtaining robust predictions while simultaneously analyzing large numbers of different types of candidate predictors. In a new, large, transdiagnostic youth sample and multidomain high-dimension data, we used 160 candidate predictors encompassing neural, prenatal, developmental, physiologic, sociocultural, environmental, emotional and cognitive features and leveraged three different machine learning algorithms optimized with a novel artificial intelligence meta-learning technique to predict individual cases of anxiety, depression, attention deficit, disruptive behaviors and post-traumatic stress. Our models tested well in unseen, held-out data (AUC ≥ 0.94). By utilizing a large-scale design and advanced computational approaches, we were able to compare the relative predictive ability of neural versus psychosocial features in a principled manner and found that psychosocial features consistently outperformed neural metrics in their relative ability to deliver robust predictions of individual cases. We found that deep learning with artificial neural networks and tree-based learning with XGBoost outperformed logistic regression with ElasticNet, supporting the conceptualization of mental illnesses as multifactorial disease processes with non-linear relationships among predictors that can be robustly modeled with computational psychiatry techniques. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test the relative predictive ability of these gold-standard algorithms from different classes across multiple mental health conditions in youth within the same study design in multidomain data utilizing >100 candidate predictors. Further research is suggested to explore these findings in longitudinal data and validate results in an external dataset.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10468379
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Translational Psychiatry
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2158-3188
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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INTRODUCTION Diverse phenotypes, including large brains relative to body size, group living, and vocal learning ability, have evolved multiple times throughout mammalian history. These shared phenotypes may have arisen repeatedly by means of common mechanisms discernible through genome comparisons. RATIONALE Protein-coding sequence differences have failed to fully explain the evolution of multiple mammalian phenotypes. This suggests that these phenotypes have evolved at least in part through changes in gene expression, meaning that their differences across species may be caused by differences in genome sequence at enhancer regions that control gene expression in specific tissues and cell types. Yet the enhancers involved in phenotype evolution are largely unknown. Sequence conservation–based approaches for identifying such enhancers are limited because enhancer activity can be conserved even when the individual nucleotides within the sequence are poorly conserved. 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Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.
Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.
Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.
Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (
https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).
