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Abstract Vadose zone soil moisture is often considered a pivotal intermediary water reservoir between surface and groundwater in semi-arid regions. Understanding its dynamics in response to changes in meteorologic forcing patterns is essential to enhance the climate resiliency of our ecological and agricultural system. However, the inability to observe high-resolution vadose zone soil moisture dynamics over large spatiotemporal scales hinders quantitative characterization. Here, utilizing pre-existing fiber-optic cables as seismic sensors, we demonstrate a fiber-optic seismic sensing principle to robustly capture vadose zone soil moisture dynamics. Our observations in Ridgecrest, California reveal sub-seasonal precipitation replenishments and a prolonged drought in the vadose zone, consistent with a zero-dimensional hydrological model. Our results suggest a significant water loss of 0.25 m/year through evapotranspiration at our field side, validated by nearby eddy-covariance based measurements. Yet, detailed discrepancies between our observations and modeling highlight the necessity for complementary in-situ validations. Given the escalated regional drought risk under climate change, our findings underscore the promise of fiber-optic seismic sensing to facilitate water resource management in semi-arid regions.
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Training machine learning with physics-based simulations to predict 2D soil moisture fields in a changing climate
The water content in the soil regulates exchanges between soil and atmosphere, impacts plant livelihood, and determines the antecedent condition for several natural hazards. Accurate soil moisture estimates are key to applications such as natural hazard prediction, agriculture, and water management. We explore how to best predict soil moisture at a high resolution in the context of a changing climate. Physics-based hydrological models are promising as they provide distributed soil moisture estimates and allow prediction outside the range of prior observations. This is particularly important considering that the climate is changing, and the available historical records are often too short to capture extreme events. Unfortunately, these models are extremely computationally expensive, which makes their use challenging, especially when dealing with strong uncertainties. These characteristics make them complementary to machine learning approaches, which rely on training data quality/quantity but are typically computationally efficient. We first demonstrate the ability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to reproduce soil moisture fields simulated by the hydrological model ParFlow-CLM. Then, we show how these two approaches can be successfully combined to predict future droughts not seen in the historical timeseries. We do this by generating additional ParFlow-CLM simulations with altered forcing mimicking future drought scenarios. Comparing the performance of CNN models trained on historical forcing and CNN models trained also on simulations with altered forcing reveals the potential of combining these two approaches. The CNN can not only reproduce the moisture response to a given forcing but also learn and predict the impact of altered forcing. Given the uncertainties in projected climate change, we can create a limited number of representative ParFlow-CLM simulations (ca. 25 min/water year on 9 CPUs for our case study), train our CNNs, and use them to efficiently (seconds/water-year on 1 CPU) predict additional water years/scenarios and improve our understanding of future drought potential. This framework allows users to explore scenarios beyond past observation and tailor the training data to their application of interest (e.g., wet conditions for flooding, dry conditions for drought, etc…). With the trained ML model they can rely on high resolution soil moisture estimates and explore the impact of uncertainties.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2134892
- PAR ID:
- 10468497
- Publisher / Repository:
- Frontiers in Water
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Water
- Volume:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2624-9375
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.927113
