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1. Physicochemical properties of respiratory droplets and their role in COVID-19 pandemics: a critical review

   https://doi.org/10.3877/cma.j.issn.2096-112X.2021.01.003  

   Ge, Ting ; Cheng, Shengfeng ( March 2021 , Biomaterials translational)

   null (Ed.)

   The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a serious challenge faced by the global community. Physical scientists can help medical workers and biomedical scientists, engineers, and practitioners, who are working on the front line, to slow down and eventually contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This review is focused on the physicochemical characteristics, including composition, aerodynamics, and drying behavior of respiratory droplets as a complex and multicomponent soft matter system, which are the main carrier of the virus for interpersonal transmission. The distribution and dynamics of virus particles within a droplet are also discussed. Understanding the characteristics of virus-laden respiratory droplets can lead to better design of personal protective equipment, frequently touched surfaces such as door knobs and touchscreens, and filtering equipment for indoor air circulation. Such an understanding also provides the scientific basis of public policy, including social distancing rules and public hygiene guidelines, implemented by governments around the world. 

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2. Modeling and tracking Covid-19 cases using Big Data analytics on HPCC system platform

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40537-021-00423-z  

   Villanustre, Flavio ; Chala, Arjuna ; Dev, Roger ; Xu, Lili ; LexisNexis, Jesse Shaw ; Furht, Borko ; Khoshgoftaar, Taghi ( December 2021 , Journal of Big Data)

   Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper. 

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3. A User Interface Informing Medical Staff on Continuous Indoor Environmental Quality to Support Patient Care and Airborne Disease Mitigation

   https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS52267.2021.9483774  

   Rantas, Jacob ; Wang, David ; Jarrard, Will ; Sterchi, James ; Wang, Alan ; Varnosfaderani, Mahsa Pahlavikhah ; Heydarian, Arsalan ( April 2021 , 2021 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS))

   null (Ed.)

   This project seeks to investigate the under addressed issue of indoor environmental quality (IEQ) and the impacts these factors can have on human health. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has once again brought to the forefront the importance of maintaining a healthy indoor environment. Specifically, the improvement of indoor air flow has shown to reduce the risk of airborne virus exposure. This is extremely important in the context of hospitals, which contain high concentrations of atrisk individuals. Thus, the need to create a healthy indoor space is critical to improve public health and COVID-19 mitigation efforts. To create knowledge and provide insight on environmental qualities in the hospital setting, the authors have designed and built an interface to deploy in the University of Virginia Hospital Emergency Department (ED). The interface will display room-specific light, noise, temperature, CO 2 , humidity, VOC, and PM 2.5 levels measured by the low-cost Awair Omni sensor. These insights will assist ED clinicians in mitigating disease-spread and improving patient health and satisfaction while reducing caregiver burden. The team addressed the problem through agile development involving localized sensor deployment and analysis, discovery interviews with hospital clinicians and data scientists throughout, and the implementation of a human-design centered Django interface application. Furthermore, a literature survey was conducted to ascertain appropriate thresholds for the different environmental factors. Together, this work demonstrates opportunities to assist and improve patient care with environmental data. 

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4. Statistical Analysis of Spatial Network Characteristics in Relation to COVID-19 Transmission Risks in US Counties

   https://doi.org/10.1109/EMBC46164.2021.9629892  

   Zhang, Siqi ; Yang, Sihan ; Yang, Hui ( November 2021 , 2021 43rd Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine & Biology Society (EMBC))

   Since the pandemic of COVID-19 began in January 2020, the world has witnessed drastic social-economic changes. To harness the virus spread, several studies have been done to study contributing factors that are pertinent to COVID-19 transmission risks. However, little has been done to investigate how human activities on the spatial network are correlated to the virus transmission and spread. This paper performs a statistical analysis to examine interrelationships between spatial network characteristics and cumulative cases of COVID-19 in US counties. Specifically, both county-level transportation profiles (e.g., the total number of commute workers, route miles of freight railroad) and road network characteristics of US counties are considered. Then, the lasso regression model is utilized to identify a sparse set of significant variables that are sensitive to the response variable of COVID-19 cases. Finally, the fixed-effect model is built to capture the relationship between the selected set of predictors and the response variable. This work helps identify and determine salient features from spatial network characteristics and transportation profiles, thereby improving the understanding of COVID-19 spread dynamics. These significant variables can also be utilized to develop simulation models for the prediction of real-time positions of virus spread and the optimization of intervention strategies. 

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5. Quantifying the role of airborne transmission in the spread of COVID-19

   https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023027  

   Hayden, Matthew ; Morrow, Bryce ; Yang, Wesley ; Wang, Jin ( January 2022 , Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering)

   There is an ongoing debate on the different transmission modes of SARS-CoV-2 and their relative contributions to the pandemic. In this paper, we employ a simple mathematical model, which incorporates both the human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission routes, to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We focus our attention on the role of airborne transmission in the spread of the disease in a university campus setting. We conduct both mathematical analysis and numerical simulation, and incorporate published experimental data for the viral concentration in the air to fit model parameters. Meanwhile, we compare the outcome to that of the standard SIR model, utilizing a perturbation analysis in the presence of multiple time scales. Our data fitting and numerical simulation results show that the risk of airborne transmission for SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on how long the virus can remain viable in the air. If the time for this viability is short, the airborne transmission route would be inconsequential in shaping the overall transmission risk and the total infection size. On the other hand, if the infectious virus can persist in aerosols beyond a few hours, then airborne transmission could play a much more significant role in the spread of COVID-19.

    

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