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Abstract We introduce a new framework called Machine Learning (ML) based Auroral Ionospheric electrodynamics Model (ML‐AIM). ML‐AIM solves a current continuity equation by utilizing the ML model of Field Aligned Currents of Kunduri et al. (2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA027908), the FAC‐derived auroral conductance model of Robinson et al. (2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028008), and the solar irradiance conductance model of Moen and Brekke (1993,https://doi.org/10.1029/92gl02109). The ML‐AIM inputs are 60‐min time histories of solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic fields (IMF), and geomagnetic indices, and its outputs are ionospheric electric potential, electric fields, Pedersen/Hall currents, and Joule Heating. We conduct two ML‐AIM simulations for a weak geomagnetic activity interval on 14 May 2013 and a geomagnetic storm on 7–8 September 2017. ML‐AIM produces physically accurate ionospheric potential patterns such as the two‐cell convection pattern and the enhancement of electric potentials during active times. The cross polar cap potentials (ΦPC) from ML‐AIM, the Weimer (2005,https://doi.org/10.1029/2004ja010884) model, and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) data‐assimilated potentials, are compared to the ones from 3204 polar crossings of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F17 satellite, showing better performance of ML‐AIM than others. ML‐AIM is unique and innovative because it predicts ionospheric responses to the time‐varying solar wind and geomagnetic conditions, while the other traditional empirical models like Weimer (2005,https://doi.org/10.1029/2004ja010884) designed to provide a quasi‐static ionospheric condition under quasi‐steady solar wind/IMF conditions. Plans are underway to improve ML‐AIM performance by including a fully ML network of models of aurora precipitation and ionospheric conductance, targeting its characterization of geomagnetically active times.
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An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration
Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2054697
- PAR ID:
- 10470929
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 1942-2466
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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