The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice‐obligate species with dissimilar life‐history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell
Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (
- Award ID(s):
- 1744989
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10471418
- Publisher / Repository:
- Science Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 39
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs)Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice‐obligate predators who differ in life‐history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krillEuphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence–absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a ‘climate change score’ based on known responses to climate change to create a ‘change importance product’. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post‐breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri ). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey‐abundant, allowing the only two air‐breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica ) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin‐scale, region‐specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real‐world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad‐brush, basin‐scale approaches to understanding species‐specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed—especially when designing marine protected areas. -
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Abstract Aim Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose (
Alces alces ), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest.Location The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America.
Methods We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use.
Results We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times.
Main conclusions Our results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.
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Introduction Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (
Yucca brevifolia andY. jaegeriana , respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.Methods We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.
Results While the environments occupied by
Y. brevifolia andY. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat forY. jaegeriana extends throughout the range ofY. brevifolia , while potential habitat forY. brevifolia is not well represented within the range ofY. jaegeriana .Discussion By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.
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Abstract Predators impact preyscapes (3-D distribution of forage species) by consuming prey according to their abilities or by altering prey behavior as they avoid being consumed. We elucidate prey (Antarctic silverfish[
Pleuragramma antarctica ] and crystal krill[Euphausia chrystallorophias ]) responses to predation associated with the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, polynya. Prey abundance and habitat was sampled across a 30 × 15 km area by remotely-operated vehicle, and included locations that were accessible (ice edge) or inaccessible (solid fast ice) to air-breathing predators. Prey and habitat sampling coincided with bio-logging of Adélie penguins and observations of other air-breathing predators (penguins, seals, and whales), all of which were competing for the same prey. Adélie penguins dived deeper, and more frequently, near the ice edge. Lowered abundance of krill at the ice edge indicated they were depleted or were responding to increased predation and/or higher light levels along the ice edge. Penguin diet shifted increasingly to silverfish from krill during sampling, and was correlated with the arrival of krill-eating whales. Behaviorally-mediated, high trophic transfer characterizes the McMurdo Sound MIZ, and likely other MIZs, warranting more specific consideration in food web models and conservation efforts. -
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Abstract Anthropogenic global warming and deforestation are significant drivers of the global biodiversity crisis. Ectothermic and viviparous animals are especially vulnerable since high environmental temperatures can impair embryonic development, but we lack knowledge about these effects upon Neotropical organisms. Here, we estimate how much of the current area with suitable habitats overlaps with protected areas and model the combined effects of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of the viviparous Neotropical lizard
Notomabuya frenata (Scincidae). This species ranges in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. We use environmental and physiological variables (locomotor performance and hours of activity) to predict suitable present and future areas, considering different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. The most critical predictors of habitat suitability were isothermality (i.e., the ratio between mean diurnal temperature range and annual temperature range), precipitation during winter, and hours of activity under lower thermal extremes. Still, our models predict a contraction of suitable habitats in all future scenarios and the displacement of these areas towards eastern South America. In addition, protected areas are not enough to ensure suitable habitats for this species. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of tropical and viviparous ectotherms and suggest that even widely distributed species, such asN. frenata , may have their conservation compromised shortly due to the low representativeness of their suitable habitats in protected areas combined with the synergistic effects of climate change and deforestation. We stress the need for decision‐makers to consider the impact of range shifts in creating protected areas and managing endangered species.
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adg8340
