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Pooled single-cell perturbation screens represent powerful experimental platforms for functional genomics, yet interpreting these rich datasets for meaningful biological conclusions remains challenging. Most current methods fall at one of two extremes: either opaque deep learning models that obscure biological meaning, or simplified frameworks that treat genes as isolated units. As such, these approaches overlook a crucial insight: gene co-fluctuations in unperturbed cellular states can be harnessed to model perturbation responses. Here we present CIPHER (Covariance Inference for Perturbation and High-dimensional Expression Response), a framework leveraging linear response theory from statistical physics to predict transcriptome-wide perturbation outcomes using gene co-fluctuations in unperturbed cells. We validated CIPHER on synthetic regulatory networks before applying it to 11 large-scale single-cell perturbation datasets covering 4,234 perturbations and over 1.36M cells. CIPHER robustly recapitulated genome-wide responses to single and double perturbations by exploiting baseline gene covariance structure. Importantly, eliminating gene-gene covariances, while retaining gene-intrinsic variances, reduced model performance by 11-fold, demonstrating the rich information stored within baseline fluctuation structures. Moreover, gene-gene correlations transferred successfully across independent experiments of the same cell type, revealing stereotypic fluctuation structures. Furthermore, CIPHER outperformed conventional differential expression metrics in identifying true perturbations while providing uncertainty-aware effect size estimates through Bayesian inference. Finally, most genome-wide responses propagated through the covariance matrix along approximately three independent and global gene modules. CIPHER underscores the importance of theoretically-grounded models in capturing complex biological responses, highlighting fundamental design principles encoded in cellular fluctuation patterns.
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Predicting transcriptional outcomes of novel multigene perturbations with GEARS
Abstract Understanding cellular responses to genetic perturbation is central to numerous biomedical applications, from identifying genetic interactions involved in cancer to developing methods for regenerative medicine. However, the combinatorial explosion in the number of possible multigene perturbations severely limits experimental interrogation. Here, we present graph-enhanced gene activation and repression simulator (GEARS), a method that integrates deep learning with a knowledge graph of gene–gene relationships to predict transcriptional responses to both single and multigene perturbations using single-cell RNA-sequencing data from perturbational screens. GEARS is able to predict outcomes of perturbing combinations consisting of genes that were never experimentally perturbed. GEARS exhibited 40% higher precision than existing approaches in predicting four distinct genetic interaction subtypes in a combinatorial perturbation screen and identified the strongest interactions twice as well as prior approaches. Overall, GEARS can predict phenotypically distinct effects of multigene perturbations and thus guide the design of perturbational experiments.
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- PAR ID:
- 10471870
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Biotechnology
- ISSN:
- 1087-0156
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-023-01905-6
