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1. A Quasar-based Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population Model: Implications for the Gravitational Wave Background

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac32de  

   Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew ; Mingarelli, Chiara M. F. ; Greene, Jenny E. ; Pardo, Kris ; Nañez, Morgan ; Goulding, Andy D. ( January 2022 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is believed to be dominated by GW emission from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Observations of several dual-active galactic nuclei (AGN) strongly suggest a link between AGN and SMBHBs, given that these dual-AGN systems will eventually form bound binary pairs. Here we develop an exploratory SMBHB population model based on empirically constrained quasar populations, allowing us to decompose the GWB amplitude into an underlying distribution of SMBH masses, SMBHB number density, and volume enclosing the GWB. Our approach also allows us to self-consistently predict the number of local SMBHB systems from the GWB amplitude. Interestingly, we find the local number density of SMBHBs implied by the common-process signal in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set to be roughly five times larger than previously predicted by other models. We also find that at most ∼25% of SMBHBs can be associated with quasars. Furthermore, our quasar-based approach predicts ≳95% of the GWB signal comes fromz≲ 2.5, and that SMBHBs contributing to the GWB have masses ≳10⁸M_⊙. We also explore how different empirical galaxy–black hole scaling relations affect the local number density of GW sources, and find that relations predicting more massive black holes decrease the local number density of SMBHBs. Overall, our results point to the important role that a measurement of the GWB will play in directly constraining the cosmic population of SMBHBs, as well as their connections to quasars and galaxy mergers.

    

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2. The NANOGrav Search for Signals from New Physics: MCMC chains

   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8083620  

   NANOGrav, The Collaboration ( January 2023 , Zenodo)

   MCMC chains for the GWB analyses performed in the paper "The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics". 

   The data is provided in pickle format. Each file contains a NumPy array with the MCMC chain (with burn-in already removed), and a dictionary with the model parameters' names as keys and their priors as values. You can load them as

   with open ('path/to/file.pkl', 'rb') as pick: temp = pickle.load(pick) params = temp[0] chain = temp[1]

   The naming convention for the files is the following:

   • igw: inflationary Gravitational Waves (GWs)
   • sigw: scalar-induced GWs
     • sigw_box: assumes a box-like feature in the primordial power spectrum.
     • sigw_delta: assumes a delta-like feature in the primordial power spectrum.
     • sigw_gauss: assumes a Gaussian peak feature in the primordial power spectrum.
   • pt: cosmological phase transitions
     • pt_bubble: assumes that the dominant contribution to the GW productions comes from bubble collisions.
     • pt_sound: assumes that the dominant contribution to the GW productions comes from sound waves.
   • stable: stable cosmic strings
     • stable-c: stable strings emitting GWs only in the form of GW bursts from cusps on closed loops.
     • stable-k: stable strings emitting GWs only in the form of GW bursts from kinks on closed loops.
     • stable-m: stable strings emitting monochromatic GW at the fundamental frequency.
     • stable-n: stable strings described by numerical simulations including GWs from cusps and kinks.
   • meta: metastable cosmic strings
     • meta-l: metastable strings with GW emission from loops only.
     • meta-ls metastable strings with GW emission from loops and segments.
   • super: cosmic superstrings.
   • dw: domain walls
     • dw-sm: domain walls decaying into Standard Model particles.
     • dw-dr: domain walls decaying into dark radiation.

   For each model, we provide four files. One for the run where the new-physics signal is assumed to be the only GWB source. One for the run where the new-physics signal is superimposed to the signal from Supermassive Black Hole Binaries (SMBHB), for these files "_bhb" will be appended to the model name. Then, for both these scenarios, in the "compare" folder we provide the files for the hypermodel runs that were used to derive the Bayes' factors.

   In addition to chains for the stochastic models, we also provide data for the two deterministic models considered in the paper (ULDM and DM substructures). For the ULDM model, the naming convention of the files is the following (all the ULDM signals are superimposed to the SMBHB signal, see the discussion in the paper for more details)

   • uldm_e: ULDM Earth signal.
   • uldm_p: ULDM pulsar signal
     • uldm_p_cor: correlated limit
     • uldm_p_unc: uncorrelated limit
   • uldm_c: ULDM combined Earth + pulsar signal direct coupling 
     • uldm_c_cor: correlated limit
     • uldm_c_unc: uncorrelated limit
   • uldm_vecB: vector ULDM coupled to the baryon number
     • uldm_vecB_cor: correlated limit
     • uldm_vecB_unc: uncorrelated limit 
   • uldm_vecBL: vector ULDM coupled to B-L
     • uldm_vecBL_cor: correlated limit
     • uldm_vecBL_unc: uncorrelated limit
   • uldm_c_grav: ULDM combined Earth + pulsar signal for gravitational-only coupling
     • uldm_c_grav_cor: correlated limit
       • uldm_c_cor_grav_low: low mass region  
       • uldm_c_cor_grav_mon: monopole region
       • uldm_c_cor_grav_low: high mass region
     • uldm_c_unc: uncorrelated limit
       • uldm_c_unc_grav_low: low mass region  
       • uldm_c_unc_grav_mon: monopole region
       • uldm_c_unc_grav_low: high mass region

   For the substructure (static) model, we provide the chain for the marginalized distribution (as for the ULDM signal, the substructure signal is always superimposed to the SMBHB signal)

    

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3. Forecasting Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Anisotropy in the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac9836  

   Pol, Nihan ; Taylor, Stephen R. ; Romano, Joseph D. ( December 2022 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Statistical anisotropy in the nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) is expected to be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) in the near future. By developing a frequentist statistical framework that intrinsically restricts the GWB power to be positive, we establish scaling relations for multipole-dependent anisotropy decision thresholds that are a function of the noise properties, timing baselines, and cadences of the pulsars in a PTA. We verify that (i) a larger number of pulsars, and (ii) factors that lead to lower uncertainty on spatial cross-correlation measurements between pulsars, lead to a higher overall GWB signal-to-noise ratio, and lower anisotropy decision thresholds with which to reject the null hypothesis of isotropy. Using conservative simulations of realistic NANOGrav data sets, we predict that an anisotropic GWB with angular power C l =1 > 0.3 C l =0 may be sufficient to produce tension with isotropy at the p = 3 × 10 −3 (∼3 σ ) level in near-future NANOGrav data with a 20 yr baseline. We present ready-to-use scaling relationships that can map these thresholds to any number of pulsars, configuration of pulsar noise properties, or sky coverage. We discuss how PTAs can improve the detection prospects for anisotropy, as well as how our methods can be adapted for more versatile searches. 

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4. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

   https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/acdc91  

   Afzal, Adeela ; Agazie, Gabriella ; Anumarlapudi, Akash ; Archibald, Anne M. ; Arzoumanian, Zaven ; Baker, Paul T. ; Bécsy, Bence ; Blanco-Pillado, Jose Juan ; Blecha, Laura ; Boddy, Kimberly K. ; et al ( June 2023 , The Astrophysical Journal Letters)

   Abstract The 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons. 

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5. Exploring Realistic Nanohertz Gravitational-wave Backgrounds

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aca1b2  

   Bécsy, Bence ; Cornish, Neil J. ; Kelley, Luke Zoltan ( December 2022 , The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Hundreds of millions of supermassive black hole binaries are expected to contribute to the gravitational-wave signal in the nanohertz frequency band. Their signal is often approximated either as an isotropic Gaussian stochastic background with a power-law spectrum or as an individual source corresponding to the brightest binary. In reality, the signal is best described as a combination of a stochastic background and a few of the brightest binaries modeled individually. We present a method that uses this approach to efficiently create realistic pulsar timing array data sets using synthetic catalogs of binaries based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We explore three different properties of such realistic backgrounds that could help distinguish them from those formed in the early universe: (i) their characteristic strain spectrum, (ii) their statistical isotropy, and (iii) the variance of their spatial correlations. We also investigate how the presence of confusion noise from a stochastic background affects detection prospects of individual binaries. We calculate signal-to-noise ratios of the brightest binaries in different realizations for a simulated pulsar timing array based on the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set extended to a time span of 15 yr. We find that ∼6% of the realizations produce systems with signal-to-noise ratios larger than 5, suggesting that individual systems might soon be detected (the fraction increases to ∼41% at 20 yr). These can be taken as a pessimistic prediction for the upcoming NANOGrav 15 yr data set, since it does not include the effect of potentially improved timing solutions and newly added pulsars. 

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