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Induced seismicity in Oklahoma and South Kansas has been widely attributed to wastewater disposal into the deep Arbuckle formation. However, the relative contributions of pore-pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress changes to earthquake triggering remain debated. In this study, we apply the Coulomb threshold rate-and-state seismicity forecasting model of Heimisson et al. (2022) to induced seismicity in the region from 2000 to 2024. Our model is informed by poroelastic stress changes resulting from wastewater injection between 1995 and 2024 and is benchmarked against existing seismicity forecast models. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the onset, peak, and decline of seismicity, demonstrating strong agreement with the observed earthquake activity in space and time. It provides robust constraints on permeability, yielding a range consistent with previously reported values. Based on the fit to the data, the model informed by poroelastic stress changes performs better. However, regardless of the assumed mechanism, both models yield similarly reliable seismicity forecasts, indicating that the choice of mechanism has a limited impact on forecasting performance. Finally, we estimate the probability of an >= 5 event occurring between 2021 and 2024 to range from 7% to 18% and conclude that seismic risk will remain elevated if wastewater injection volumes into the Arbuckle persist at similar levels in the coming years.
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Constructing a 3‐D Radially Anisotropic Crustal Velocity Model for Oklahoma Using Full Waveform Inversion
Abstract Over the past decade, the seismicity rate in the state of Oklahoma has increased significantly, which has been linked to industrial operations, such as saltwater injection and hydraulic fracturing. Taking advantage of induced earthquakes and recently deployed seismometers, we construct a 3‐D radially anisotropic seismic velocity model for the crust of Oklahoma by using full waveform inversion. To mitigate the well‐known cycle‐skipping problem, we use misfit functions based on phase and waveform differences in several frequency bands. Relative velocity perturbations in the inverted model allow us to delineate major geological provinces in Oklahoma, such as the Anadarko Basin and the Cherokee Platform/Shelf. In addition, radial anisotropy in the inverted model reflects deformation within the crust of Oklahoma, which might correlate with sedimentary layering, microcracks/fractures, as well as dominant orientation of anisotropic minerals. The crystalline basement beneath Oklahoma can be inferred from the new velocity model, which enables us to better classify induced seismicity in current earthquake catalogs. Furthermore, synthetic experiments suggest that the new velocity model enables us to better constrain earthquake locations in Oklahoma, especially for determining their depths, which are important for investigating induced seismicity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042098
- PAR ID:
- 10475991
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 2169-9313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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