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This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characterize the relationships between production and prices of some forage crops (hay, grain sorghum, and corn) that can be used as feed supplements for beef cattle production and the potential impacts from a changing climate (precipitation, temperature) and energy inputs (crude oil production and prices). The analysis was based on 60 years of data (1958–2017) using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Hay production showed a declining trend since 2000 and in 2017, it dropped by ~33% compared to that of 2000. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.83) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.85) were negatively correlated with hay production. A moderate declining trend in mean annual hay prices was also observed. Mean annual range conditions (R2 = 0.60) was negatively correlated with mean annual hay prices, whereas mean annual crude oil prices (R2 = 0.48) showed a positive relationship. Grain sorghum production showed a consistent declining trend since 1971 and in 2017, it dropped by ~91% compared to that of 1971. Mean annual temperature (R2 = 0.58) was negatively correlated with grain sorghum production, while beef cattle population (R2 = 0.61) and range conditions (R2 = 0.51) showed positive linear relationships. Mean annual grain sorghum prices decreased since the peak of 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~77% compared to those of 1974. Crude oil prices (R2 = 0.72) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.73) were positively correlated with mean annual grain sorghum prices. Corn production in 2017 dropped by ~61% compared to the peak that occurred in 1999. Crude oil production (R2 = 0.85) and beef cattle population (R2 = 0.86) were negatively correlated with corn production. Mean annual corn prices showed a declining trend since 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by ~75% compared to those of 1974. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (R2 = 0.83) and negatively correlated with crude oil production (R2 = 0.84). These finding can particularly help in developing a more holistic model that integrates FEWS components to explain their response to internal (i.e., management practices) and external (i.e., environmental) stressors. Such holistic modeling can further inform the development and adoption of more sustainable production and resource use practices.
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Supplemental materials of the Castaño-Sánchez et. al. (2023) article (Agricultural Systems) containing the IFSM model input parameters not included in the main text, and the Criollo ranches survey form
CONTEXT: The southwestern United States is experiencing an increasingly warmer and drier climate that is affecting cattle production systems of the region. Adaptation strategies are needed that will not compromise environmental quality or profitability. Options include the use of desert-adapted beef cattle biotypes, such as Rarámuri Criollo cattle, and crossbreds of Criollo with more traditional British breeds. Currently, most calves raised in the Southwest are grain finished, often with irrigated crops produced in the hydrologically-threatened Ogallala Aquifer region. A viable alternative may be grass finishing with the rainfed forage of the arid and semi-arid rangeland of the Southwest or in the temperate grasslands of the Northern Plains. OBJECTIVE: Compare the environmental impacts and production costs of grain-finishing in Texas and grass-finishing in the Northern plains and the Southwest with traditional Angus cattle vs. Criollo and Criollo x Angus cattle. METHODS: Nine supply chain strategies were simulated using the Integrated Farm System Model to compare farm-gate life cycle intensities of greenhouse gas emissions (carbon footprint), fossil energy footprint, nitrogen footprint, blue water footprint and production costs using representative (appropriate soils, climate, and management) ranch and feedlot operations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: For both finishing options (grass, grain), Criollo x Angus cattle had the best environmental (3%-27% lower), and production cost (4-23% lower) outcomes followed by pure Criollo and then Angus cattle. Crossbred production combined the lower feed supplementation requirements of Criollo cows with heavier final carcasses of offspring from Angus genetics. Crossbred cattle with grass finishing in the Southwest or Northern Plains outperformed on most environmental variables as well as production costs, mostly due to reduced external input requirements (primarily feed). A downside for grass-finished crossbreds was greater carbon footprint (27-42% higher) compared to grain finishing due to greater methane emissions from high forage diets and an extended time to finish. On grasslands where soil C sequestration can be supported, that land-based sequestration may offset the greater greenhouse gas emission from enteric methane of grass-finished beef. Grass finishing in the Northern Plains may provide a more reliable meat supply chain than grass finishing in the Southwest due to the lower risk and less severe consequences of drought. SIGNIFICANCE: Alternative beef supply chain options using Rarámuri Criollo cattle were found to be sustainable production systems that can be adopted by ranchers in the southwestern United States to adapt to the changing climate.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2025166
- PAR ID:
- 10476957
- Publisher / Repository:
- Environmental Data Initiative
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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