skip to main content


Title: Revealing chronic disease progression patterns using Gaussian process for stage inference
Abstract Objective

The early stages of chronic disease typically progress slowly, so symptoms are usually only noticed until the disease is advanced. Slow progression and heterogeneous manifestations make it challenging to model the transition from normal to disease status. As patient conditions are only observed at discrete timestamps with varying intervals, an incomplete understanding of disease progression and heterogeneity affects clinical practice and drug development.

Materials and Methods

We developed the Gaussian Process for Stage Inference (GPSI) approach to uncover chronic disease progression patterns and assess the dynamic contribution of clinical features. We tested the ability of the GPSI to reliably stratify synthetic and real-world data for osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), bipolar disorder (BP) in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the UTHealth and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA).

Results

First, GPSI identified two subgroups of OA based on image features, where these subgroups corresponded to different genotypes, indicating the bone-remodeling and overweight-related pathways. Second, GPSI differentiated BP into two distinct developmental patterns and defined the contribution of specific brain region atrophy from early to advanced disease stages, demonstrating the ability of the GPSI to identify diagnostic subgroups. Third, HCC progression patterns were well reproduced in the two independent UTHealth and TCGA datasets.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrated that an unsupervised approach can disentangle temporal and phenotypic heterogeneity and identify population subgroups with common patterns of disease progression. Based on the differences in these features across stages, physicians can better tailor treatment plans and medications to individual patients.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10478231
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Oxford University Press
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
Volume:
31
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1067-5027
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 396-405
Size(s):
["p. 396-405"]
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Tissues and engineered biomaterials exhibit exquisite local variation in stiffness that defines their function. Conventional elastography quantifies stiffness in soft (e.g. brain, liver) tissue, but robust quantification in stiff (e.g. musculoskeletal) tissues is challenging due to dissipation of high frequency shear waves. We describe new development offinite deformation elastographythat utilizes magnetic resonance imaging of low frequency, physiological-level (large magnitude) displacements, coupled to an iterative topology optimization routine to investigate stiffness heterogeneity, including spatial gradients and inclusions. We reconstruct 2D and 3D stiffness distributions in bilayer agarose hydrogels and silicon materials that exhibit heterogeneous displacement/strain responses. We map stiffness in porcine and sheep articular cartilage deep within the bony articular joint spacein situfor the first time. Elevated cartilage stiffness localized to the superficial zone is further related to collagen fiber compaction and loss of water content during cyclic loading, as assessed by independentT2measurements. We additionally describe technical challenges needed to achievein vivoelastography measurements. Our results introduce new functional imaging biomarkers, which can be assessed nondestructively, with clinical potential to diagnose and track progression of disease in early stages, including osteoarthritis or tissue degeneration.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Amyloid beta (Aβ) is thought to play a critical role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Prion-like Aβ polymorphs, or “strains”, can have varying pathogenicity and may underlie the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disease. In order to develop effective AD therapies, it is critical to identify the strains of Aβ that might arise prior to the onset of clinical symptoms and understand how they may change with progressing disease. Down syndrome (DS), as the most common genetic cause of AD, presents promising opportunities to compare such features between early and advanced AD. In this work, we evaluate the neuropathology and Aβ strain profile in the post-mortem brain tissues of 210 DS, AD, and control individuals. We assayed the levels of various Aβ and tau species and used conformation-sensitive fluorescent probes to detect differences in Aβ strains among individuals and populations. We found that these cohorts have some common but also some distinct strains from one another, with the most heterogeneous populations of Aβ emerging in subjects with high levels of AD pathology. The emergence of distinct strains in DS at these later stages of disease suggests that the confluence of aging, pathology, and other DS-linked factors may favor conditions that generate strains that are unique from sporadic AD.

     
    more » « less
  3. Background

    Healthy articular cartilage presents structural gradients defined by distinct zonal patterns through the thickness, which may be disrupted in the pathogenesis of several disorders. Analysis of textural patterns using quantitative MRI data may identify structural gradients of healthy or degenerating tissue that correlate with early osteoarthritis (OA).

    Purpose

    To quantify spatial gradients and patterns in MRI data, and to probe new candidate biomarkers for early severity of OA.

    Study Type

    Retrospective study.

    Subjects

    Fourteen volunteers receiving total knee replacement surgery (eight males/two females/four unknown, average age ± standard deviation: 68.1 ± 9.6 years) and 10 patients from the OA Initiative (OAI) with radiographic OA onset (two males/eight females, average age ± standard deviation: 57.7 ± 9.4 years; initial Kellgren‐Lawrence [KL] grade: 0; final KL grade: 3 over the 10‐year study).

    Field Strength/Sequence

    3.0‐T and 14.1‐T, biomechanics‐based displacement‐encoded imaging, fast spin echo, multi‐slice multi‐echoT2mapping.

    Assessment

    We studied structure and strain in cartilage explants from volunteers receiving total knee replacement, or structure in cartilage of OAI patients with progressive OA. We calculated spatial gradients of quantitative MRI measures (eg, T2) normal to the cartilage surface to enhance zonal variations. We compared gradient values against histologically OA severity, conventional relaxometry, and/or KL grades.

    Statistical Tests

    Multiparametric linear regression for evaluation of the relationship between residuals of the mixed effects models and histologically determined OA severity scoring, with a significance threshold atα = 0.05.

    Results

    Gradients of individual relaxometry and biomechanics measures significantly correlated with OA severity, outperforming conventional relaxometry and strain metrics. In human explants, analysis of spatial gradients provided the strongest relationship to OA severity (R2 = 0.627). Spatial gradients of T2 from OAI data identified variations in radiographic (KL Grade 2) OA severity in single subjects, while conventional T2 alone did not.

    Data Conclusion

    Spatial gradients of quantitative MRI data may improve the predictive power of noninvasive imaging for early‐stage degeneration.

    Evidence Level

    1

    Technical Efficacy

    Stage 1

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Study Objectives

    Dementia is a growing cause of disability and loss of independence in the elderly, yet remains largely underdiagnosed. Early detection and classification of dementia can help close this diagnostic gap and improve management of disease progression. Altered oscillations in brain activity during sleep are an early feature of neurodegenerative diseases and be used to identify those on the verge of cognitive decline.

    Methods

    Our observational cross-sectional study used a clinical dataset of 10 784 polysomnography from 8044 participants. Sleep macro- and micro-structural features were extracted from the electroencephalogram (EEG). Microstructural features were engineered from spectral band powers, EEG coherence, spindle, and slow oscillations. Participants were classified as dementia (DEM), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) based on clinical diagnosis, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Mini-Mental State Exam scores, clinical dementia rating, and prescribed medications. We trained logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest models to classify patients into DEM, MCI, and CN groups.

    Results

    For discriminating DEM versus CN, the best model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.78 and area under precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.22. For discriminating MCI versus CN, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.73 and AUPRC of 0.18. For discriminating DEM or MCI versus CN, the best model achieved an AUROC of 0.76 and AUPRC of 0.32.

    Conclusions

    Our dementia classification algorithms show promise for incorporating dementia screening techniques using routine sleep EEG. The findings strengthen the concept of sleep as a window into neurodegenerative diseases.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative disease of the joints and a leading cause of physical disability in adults. Intra‐articular (IA) therapy is a popular treatment strategy for localized, single‐joint OA; however, small‐molecule drugs such as corticosteroids do not provide prolonged relief. One possible reason for their lack of efficacy is high clearance rates from the joint through constant lymphatic drainage of the synovial tissues and synovial fluid and also by their exchange via the synovial vasculature. Advanced drug delivery strategies for extended release of therapeutic agents in the joint space is a promising approach to improve outcomes for OA patients. Broadly, the basic principle behind this strategy is to encapsulate therapeutic agents in a polymeric drug delivery system (DDS) for diffusion‐ and/or degradation‐controlled release, whereby degradation can occur by hydrolysis or tied to relevant microenvironmental cues such as pH, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and protease activity. In this review, the development of clinically tested IA therapies for OA and recent systems which have been investigated preclinically are highlighted. DDS strategies including hydrogels, liposomes, polymeric microparticles (MPs) and nanoparticles (NPs), drug conjugates, and combination systems are introduced and evaluated for clinical translational potential.

     
    more » « less