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Abstract Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near‐term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water‐related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near‐term forecasts of waterquantityand that near‐term waterqualityforecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non‐operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near‐term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end‐user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near‐term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management.
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State-of-the-art review of near-term freshwater forecasting literature published between 2017 and 2022
This data publication includes code and results from a systematic literature review on the current state of near-term forecasting of freshwater quality. The review aimed to address the following questions: (1) Freshwater variables, scales, models, and skill: Which freshwater variables and temporal scales are most commonly targeted for near-term forecasts, and what modeling methods are most commonly employed to develop these forecasts? How is the accuracy of freshwater quality forecasts assessed, and how accurate are they? How is uncertainty typically incorporated into water quality forecast output? (2) Forecast infrastructure and workflows: Are iterative, automated workflows commonly employed in near-term freshwater quality forecasting? How are forecasts validated and archived? (3) Human dimensions: What is the stated motivation for development of most near-term freshwater quality forecasts, and who are the most common end users (if any)? How are end users engaged in forecast development? An initial search was conducted for published papers presenting freshwater quality forecasts from 1 January 2017 to 17 February 2022 in the Web of Science Core Collection. Results were subsequently analyzed in three stages. First, paper titles were screened for relevance. Second, an initial screen was conducted to assess whether each paper presented a near-term freshwater quality forecast. Third, papers that passed the initial screen were analyzed using a standardized matrix to assess the state of near-term freshwater quality forecasting and identify areas of recent progress and ongoing challenges. Additional details regarding the systematic literature search and review are presented in the Methods section of the metadata.
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- PAR ID:
- 10478937
- Publisher / Repository:
- Environmental Data Initiative
- Date Published:
- Edition / Version:
- 1
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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