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The timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues in Streptanthus tortuosus populations across an elevational gradient. Methods Using common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change. Results Populations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low‐elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high‐elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate‐change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high‐elevation populations. Conclusions The seasonal germination niche for S. tortuosus is highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence.
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The consequences of winter climate change for plant performance
With continually increasing summer temperatures and intense heat waves, it can be easy to neglect the ecological effects of winter climate change. However, shifts in the climate during winter can have profound consequences for eco-evolutionary dynamics in extratropical latitudes and high-elevation locales. Climate change has increased winter temperatures, disrupted snowpack, and reduced ice cover (Rixen et al., 2022). Extreme losses of snowpack are projected for many regions by the end of the century (Talsma et al., 2022). Patterns of climate change are complex and region dependent, but winters are becoming less reliable overall, with elevated temperatures and altered snow dynamics. In ecosystems with cold winters, many plant species require exposure to low, but not necessarily freezing, temperatures for a prolonged period to break dormancy in the spring; this chilling requirement prevents leaf emergence, flowering, or germination from occurring in the middle of winter (Chuine et al., 2016). Warming winters have advanced the onset of spring and could result in insufficient overwinter chilling. In addition, spring and fall frosts that occur after plants become physiologically active can perturb phenology and reduce fitness. Finally, novel winter climates could disrupt biotic interactions among plants, their mutualists, and antagonists. Here, I discuss emerging research frontiers in these domains.
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- PAR ID:
- 10479870
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Journal of Botany
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- American Journal of Botany
- ISSN:
- 0002-9122
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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PremiseThe timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues inStreptanthus tortuosuspopulations across an elevational gradient. MethodsUsing common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change. ResultsPopulations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low‐elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high‐elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate‐change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high‐elevation populations. ConclusionsThe seasonal germination niche forS. tortuosusis highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence.more » « less
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Abstract While snowpack is the main influence on Rio Grande water year streamflow, spring hydroclimate can play a role in moderating this influence in a subset of years. Through an investigation of the relationship between winter snowpack and spring hydroclimate conditions and Rio Grande streamflow, we find low snowpack years with relatively cool, wet springs coincide with slightly above median streamflow in 18% of the years in the instrumental record (1936–2018), while the opposite conditions occur during 24% of years. Over this period, an increase in years with low snowpack/cool wet springs is evident, likely due to a significant decreasing trend in snowpack. We analyze two 15‐century tree‐ring reconstructions to provide long‐term context for the variable relationship between snowpack and spring hydroclimate. Results suggests irregular but quasi‐multidecadal periods when spring conditions may have moderated the effect of a relatively dry winter or reduced the effect of a relatively wet winter. The reconstructions also provide context for the observed trend in the increasing importance of spring conditions over the instrumental period, which appears to be related to both natural climate variability and climate change. In the Rio Grande basin, as mountain snowpack declines due to warming temperatures, spring conditions may be playing an increasingly important role for water resources, at least in the near term.more » « less
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Climate models for the northeastern United States (U.S.) over the next century predict an increase in air temperature between 2.8 and 4.3 °C and a decrease in the average number of days per year when a snowpack will cover the forest floor (Hayhoe et al. 2007, 2008; Campbell et al. 2010). Studies of forest dynamics in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems have been primarily conducted during the growing season, when most biological activity occurs. However, in recent years considerable progress has been made in our understanding of how winter climate change influences dynamics in these forests. The snowpack insulates soil from below-freezing air temperatures, which facilitates a significant amount of microbial activity. However, a smaller snowpack and increased depth and duration of soil frost amplify losses of dissolved organic C and NO3- in leachate, as well as N2O released into the atmosphere. The increase in nutrient loss following increased soil frost cannot be explained by changes in microbial activity alone. More likely, it is caused by a decrease in plant nutrient uptake following increases in soil frost. We conducted a snow-removal experiment at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest to determine the effects of a smaller winter snowpack and greater depth and duration of soil frost on trees, soil microbes, and arthropods. A number of publications have been based on these data: Comerford et al. 2013, Reinmann et al. 2019, Templer 2012, and Templer et al. 2012. These data were gathered as part of the Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study (HBES). The HBES is a collaborative effort at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, which is operated and maintained by the USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station. Campbell JL, Ollinger SV, Flerchinger GN, Wicklein H, Hayhoe K, Bailey AS. Past and projected future changes in snowpack and soil frost at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. Hydrological Processes. 2010; 24:2465–2480. Comerford DP, PG Schaberg, PH Templer, AM Socci, JL Campbell, and KF Wallin. 2013. Influence of experimental snow removal on root and canopy physiology of sugar maple trees in a northern hardwood forest. Oecologia 171:261-269. Hayhoe K, Wake CP, Huntington TG, Luo LF, Schwartz MD, Sheffield J, et al. Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Climate Dynamics. 2007; 28:381–407. Hayhoe, K., Wake, C., Anderson, B. et al. Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 13, 425–436 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9133-2. Reinmann AB, J Susser, EMC Demaria, PH Templer. 2019. Declines in northern forest tree growth following snowpack decline and soil freezing. Global Change Biology 25:420-430. Templer PH. 2012. Changes in winter climate: soil frost, root injury, and fungal communities (Invited). Plant and Soil 35: 15-17 Templer PH , AF Schiller, NW Fuller, AM Socci, JL Campbell, JE Drake, and TH Kunz. 2012. Impact of a reduced winter snowpack on litter arthropod abundance and diversity in a northern hardwood forest ecosystem. Biology and Fertility of Soils 48:413-424.more » « less
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Thermal Forcing Versus Chilling? Misspecification of Temperature Controls in Spring Phenology ModelsABSTRACT BackgroundClimate‐change‐induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However, mechanistic knowledge regarding what controls the timing of spring leaf emergence is incomplete. Field‐based studies under natural conditions suggest that climate‐warming‐induced decreases in cold temperature accumulation (chilling) have expanded the dormancy duration or reduced the sensitivity of plants to warming temperatures (thermal forcing) during spring, thereby slowing the rate at which the timing of leaf emergence is shifting earlier in response to ongoing climate change. However, recent studies have argued that the apparent reductions in temperature sensitivity may arise from artefacts in the way that temperature sensitivity is calculated, while other studies based on statistical and mechanistic models specifically designed to quantify the role of chilling have shown conflicting results. MethodsWe analysed four commonly used combinations of phenology and temperature datasets obtained from remote sensing and ground observations to elucidate whether current model‐based approaches robustly quantify how chilling, in concert with thermal forcing, controls the timing of leaf emergence during spring under current climate conditions. ResultsWe show that widely used modeling approaches that are calibrated using field‐based observations misspecify the role of chilling under current climate conditions as a result of statistical artefacts inherent to the way that chilling is parameterised. Our results highlight the limitations of existing modelling approaches and observational data in quantifying how chilling affects the timing of spring leaf emergence and suggest that decreasing chilling arising from climate warming may not constrain near‐future shifts towards earlier leaf emergence in extra‐tropical ecosystems worldwide.more » « less
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16252
