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Abstract The response of severe convective storms to a warming climate is poorly understood outside of a few well studied regions. Here, projections from seven global climate models from the CMIP6 archive, for both historical and future scenarios, are used to explore the global response in variables that describe favorability of conditions for the development of severe storms. The variables include convective available potential energy (CAPE), convection inhibition (CIN), 0–6 km vertical wind shear (S06), storm relative helicity (SRH), and covariate indices (i.e., severe weather proxies) that combine them. To better quantify uncertainty, understand variable sensitivity to increasing temperature, and present results independent from a specific scenario, we consider changes in convective variables as a function of global average temperature increase across each ensemble member. Increases to favorable convective environments show an overall frequency increases on the order of 5%–20% per °C of global temperature increase, but are not regionally uniform, with higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, showing much larger relative changes. The driving mechanism of these changes is a strong increase in CAPE that is not offset by factors that either resist convection (CIN), or modify the likelihood of storm organization (S06, SRH). Severe weather proxies are not the same as severe weather events. Hence, their projected increases will not necessarily translate to severe weather occurrences, but they allow us to quantify how increases in global temperature will affect the occurrence of conditions favorable to severe weather.
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Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration Equation to Meteorological Variables for Puerto Rico
Spatiotemporal variations in reference evapotranspiration (ETo) are sensitive to the meteorological data used in its estimation. The sensitivity of the ASCE standardized ETo equation to meteorological variables from GOES-PRWEB dataset was evaluated for the island of Puerto Rico. Island wide, ETo is most sensitive to daily mean relative humidity (RHmean), followed by solar radiation, daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures, and wind speed with average absolute relative sensitivity coefficients (SCs) of 0.98, 0.57, 0.50, 0.27, and 0.12, respectively. The derived SCs guided the prioritization of bias correction of meteorological data for ETo estimation from two downscaled climate models (CNRM and CESM). The SCs were applied to evaluate how meteorological variables contribute to model errors and projected future changes in ETo from 1985–2005 to 2040–2060 at irrigated farms in the south. Both models project a 5.6% average increase in annual ETo due to projected increases in Tmax and Tmin and a decrease in RHmean. Despite ETo being most sensitive to relative changes in RHmean, the contributions from RHmean, Tmax, and Tmin to future changes in ETo are similar. CESM projects increases in ETo in March, November, and December, increasing the potential for crop water stress. Study limitations are discussed.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832576
- PAR ID:
- 10482145
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI Journal of Hydrology
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2306-5338
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 101
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050101
