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Hosts can avoid parasites (and pathogens) by reducing social contact, but such isolation may carry costs, e.g. increased vulnerability to predators. Thus, many predator–host–parasite systems confront hosts with a trade-off between predation and parasitism. Parasites, meanwhile, evolve higher virulence in response to increased host sociality and consequently, increased multiple infections. How does predation shift coevolution of host behaviour and parasite virulence? What if predators are selective, i.e. predators disproportionately capture the sickest hosts? We answer these questions with an eco-coevolutionary model parametrized for a Trinidadian guppy–Gyrodactylusspp. system. Here, increased predation drives host coevolution of higher grouping, which selects for higher virulence. Additionally, higher predator selectivity drives the contact rate higher and virulence lower. Finally, we show how predation and selectivity can have very different impacts on host density and prevalence depending on whether hosts or parasites evolve, or both. For example, higher predator selectivity led to lower prevalence with no evolution or only parasite evolution but higher prevalence with host evolution or coevolution. These findings inform our understanding of diverse systems in which host behavioural responses to predation may lead to increased prevalence and virulence of parasites.
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“Resistance Is Futile”: Weaker Selection for Resistance by Abundant Parasites Increases Prevalence and Depresses Host Density
Theory often predicts that host populations should evolve greater resistance when parasites become abundant. Furthermore, that evolutionary response could ameliorate declines in host populations during epidemics. Here, we argue for an update: when all host genotypes become sufficiently infected, higher parasite abundance can select for lower resistance because its cost exceeds its benefit. We illustrate such a “resistance is futile” outcome with mathematical and empirical approaches. First, we analyzed an eco-evolutionary model of parasites, hosts, and hosts’ resources. We determined eco-evolutionary outcomes for prevalence, host density, and resistance (mathematically, “transmission rate”) along ecological and trait gradients that alter parasite abundance. With high enough parasite abundance, hosts evolve lower resistance, amplifying infection prevalence and decreasing host density. In support of these results, a higher supply of nutrients drove larger epidemics of survival-reducing fungal parasites in a mesocosm experiment. In two-genotype treatments, zooplankton hosts evolved less resistance under high-nutrient conditions than under low-nutrient conditions. Less resistance, in turn, was associated with higher infection prevalence and lower host density. Finally, in an analysis of naturally occurring epidemics, we found a broad, bimodal distribution of epidemic sizes consistent with the resistance is futile prediction of the eco-evolutionary model. Together, the model and experiment, supplemented by the field pattern, support predictions that drivers of high parasite abundance can lead to the evolution of lower resistance. Hence, under certain conditions, the most fit strategy for individual hosts exacerbates prevalence and depresses host populations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2010826
- PAR ID:
- 10482605
- Publisher / Repository:
- The University of Chicago Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The American Naturalist
- Volume:
- 201
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0003-0147
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 864 to 879
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1086/724426
