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Abstract Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.
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Complex relationships between climate and reproduction in a resident montane bird
Animals use climate-related environmental cues to fine-tune breeding timing and investment to match peak food availability. In birds, spring temperature is a commonly documented cue used to initiate breeding, but with global climate change, organisms are experiencing both directional changes in ambient temperatures and extreme year-to-year precipitation fluctuations. Montane environments exhibit complex climate patterns where temperatures and precipitation change along elevational gradients, and where exacerbated annual variation in precipitation has resulted in extreme swings between heavy snow and drought. We used 10 years of data to investigate how annual variation in climatic conditions is associated with differences in breeding phenology and reproductive performance in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) at two elevations in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Variation in spring temperature was not associated with differences in breeding phenology across elevations in our system. Greater snow accumulation was associated with later breeding initiation at high, but not low, elevation. Brood size was reduced under drought, but only at low elevation. Our data suggest complex relationships between climate and avian reproduction and point to autumn climate as important for reproductive performance, likely via its effect on phenology and abundance of invertebrates.
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- PAR ID:
- 10483765
- Publisher / Repository:
- Royal Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Royal Society Open Science
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2054-5703
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230554
