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1. Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic

   https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcae007  

   Collins, Courtney G. ; Angert, Amy L. ; Clark, Karin ; Elmendorf, Sarah C. ; Elphinstone, Cassandra ; Henry, Greg H. R. ( January 2024 , Annals of Botany)

   The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit and seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios.

   We used two long-term datasets on 12 tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64° 52' N, - 111° 35' W) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78° 49' N, - 75° 48' W). The plant species encompassed a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We used hierarchical Bayesian structural equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years.

   We found that warming, both experimental and ambient, drove earlier flowering across species, which led to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally about two to three times stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2- to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology.

   Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, might outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

    

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2. The interactive effects of temperature and nutrients on a spring phytoplankton community

   https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.12023  

   Anderson, Stephanie I. ; Franzè, Gayantonia ; Kling, Joshua D. ; Wilburn, Paul ; Kremer, Colin T. ; Menden‐Deuer, Susanne ; Litchman, Elena ; Hutchins, David A. ; Rynearson, Tatiana A. ( February 2022 , Limnology and Oceanography)

   A complex interplay of environmental variables impacts phytoplankton community composition and physiology. Temperature and nutrient availability are two principal factors driving phytoplankton growth and composition, but are often investigated independently and on individual species in the laboratory. To assess the individual and interactive effects of temperature and nutrient concentration on phytoplankton community composition and physiology, we altered both the thermal and nutrient conditions of a cold‐adapted spring phytoplankton community in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, when surface temperature was 2.6°C and chlorophyll > 9 μg L⁻¹. Water was incubated in triplicate at −0.5°C, 2.6°C, and 6°C for 10 d. At each temperature, treatments included both nutrient amendments (N, P, Si addition) and controls (no macronutrients added). The interactive effects of temperature and resource availability altered phytoplankton growth and community structure. Nutrient amendments resulted in species sorting and communities dominated by larger species. Under replete nutrients, warming tripled phytoplankton growth rates, but under in situ nutrient conditions, increased temperature acted antagonistically, reducing growth rates by as much as 33%, suggesting communities became nutrient limited. The temperature–nutrient interplay shifted the relative proportions of each species within the phytoplankton community, resulting in more silica rich cells at decreasing temperatures, irrespective of nutrients, and C : N that varied based on resource availability, with nutrient limitation inducing a 47% increase in C : N at increasing temperatures. Our results illustrate how the temperature–nutrient interplay can alter phytoplankton community dynamics, with changes in temperature amplifying or exacerbating the nutrient effect with implications for higher trophic levels and carbon flux.

    

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3. Deterioration of the Littoral–Benthic Ecosystem Following Recent Expansion of Signal Crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) in the World’s Clearest Large Lake

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-023-00846-0  

   Scordo, Facundo ; Girdner, Scott F. ; San Pedro, Aldo ; Seitz, Carina ; Chandra, Sudeep ( May 2023 , Ecosystems)

   Some biological invasions can result in algae blooms in the nearshore of clear lakes. We studied if an invasive crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) modified the biomass and community composition of benthic macroinvertebrates and therefore led to a trophic cascade resulting in increased periphyton biomass, elevated littoral primary productivity, and benthic algae bloom in a lake with remarkable transparency [Crater Lake, Oregon, USA]. After quantifying the changes in the spatial distribution of invasive crayfish over a 13-year period, we compared biomass and community composition of littoral–benthic macroinvertebrates, periphyton biovolume, community composition, nutrient limitation, and the development of benthic algae bloom in locations with high and low crayfish density. In addition, we determined if the alteration in community structure resulted in directional changes to gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. The extent of crayfish distribution along the shoreline of Crater Lake doubled over a 13-year period, leaving less than 20% of the shoreline free from crayfish. At high crayfish density sites, benthic macroinvertebrate biomass was 99% lower, and taxa richness was 50% lower than at low crayfish areas. High crayfish sites show tenfold greater periphyton biovolume, sixfold higher periphyton biomass (chlorophylla), twofold higher metabolic productivity, and the presence of large filamentous algae (Cladophorasp.). The invasion of crayfish had negative consequences for a lake protected under the management of the USA National Park Service, with direct impacts on many levels of ecological organization.

    

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4. Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2211796120  

   Rohwer, Robin R. ; Hale, Riley J. ; Vander Zanden, M. Jake ; Miller, Todd R. ; McMahon, Katherine D. ( March 2023 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Invasive species impart abrupt changes on ecosystems, but their impacts on microbial communities are often overlooked. We paired a 20 y freshwater microbial community time series with zooplankton and phytoplankton counts, rich environmental data, and a 6 y cyanotoxin time series. We observed strong microbial phenological patterns that were disrupted by the invasions of spiny water flea ( Bythotrephes cederströmii ) and zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ). First, we detected shifts in Cyanobacteria phenology. After the spiny water flea invasion, Cyanobacteria dominance crept earlier into clearwater; and after the zebra mussel invasion, Cyanobacteria abundance crept even earlier into the diatom-dominated spring. During summer, the spiny water flea invasion sparked a cascade of shifting diversity where zooplankton diversity decreased and Cyanobacteria diversity increased. Second, we detected shifts in cyanotoxin phenology. After the zebra mussel invasion, microcystin increased in early summer and the duration of toxin production increased by over a month. Third, we observed shifts in heterotrophic bacteria phenology. The Bacteroidota phylum and members of the acI Nanopelagicales lineage were differentially more abundant. The proportion of the bacterial community that changed differed by season; spring and clearwater communities changed most following the spiny water flea invasion that lessened clearwater intensity, while summer communities changed least following the zebra mussel invasion despite the shifts in Cyanobacteria diversity and toxicity. A modeling framework identified the invasions as primary drivers of the observed phenological changes. These long-term invasion-mediated shifts in microbial phenology demonstrate the interconnectedness of microbes with the broader food web and their susceptibility to long-term environmental change. 

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5. Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

   https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021  

   Ladwig, Robert ; Hanson, Paul C. ; Dugan, Hilary A. ; Carey, Cayelan C. ; Zhang, Yu ; Shu, Lele ; Duffy, Christopher J. ; Cobourn, Kelly M. ( January 2021 , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region. 

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