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1. Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e26  

   Arndt, Kyle A.; Santos, Maria J.; Ustin, Susan; Davidson, Scott J.; Stow, Doug; Oechel, Walter C.; Tran, Thao T. P.; Graybill, Brian; Zona, Donatella (December 2019, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Many studies have reported that the Arctic is greening; however, we lack an understanding of the detailed patterns and processes that are leading to this observed greening. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to quantify greening, which has had largely positive trends over the last few decades using low spatial resolution satellite imagery such as AVHRR or MODIS over the pan-Arctic region. However, substantial fine scale spatial heterogeneity in the Arctic makes this large-scale investigation hard to interpret in terms of vegetation and other environmental changes. Here we focus on one area of the northern Alaskan Arctic using high spatial resolution (4 m) multispectral satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe^™to analyze the greening trend near Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) over 14 years from 2002 to 2016. We found that tundra vegetation has been greening (τ = 0.65,p = 0.01, NDVI increase of 0.01 yr⁻¹) despite no overall change in vegetation community composition. The greening is most closely correlated to the number of thawing degree days (R² = 0.77,F = 21.5,p < 0.001) which increased in a similar linear trend over the 14 year study period (1.79 ± 0.50 days per year,p < 0.01,τ = −0.56). This suggests that in this Arctic ecosystem, greening is occurring due to a lengthening growing season that appears to stimulate plant productivity without any significant change in vegetation communities. We found that vegetation communities in wetter locations greened about twice as fast as those found in drier conditions supporting the hypothesis that these communities respond more strongly to warming. We suggest that in Arctic environments, vegetation productivity may continue to rise, particularly in wet areas. 

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2. Climate drivers of Arctic tundra variability and change using an indicators framework

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe676  

   Bhatt, Uma S.; Walker, Donald A.; Raynolds, Martha K.; Walsh, John E.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Cai, Lei; Comiso, Josefino C.; Epstein, Howard E.; Frost, Gerald V.; Gersten, Robert; et al (May 2021, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season. 

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3. Brooks Range vegetation change from repeat imagery, Alaska, 1970s to 2010s

   https://doi.org/10.18739/A23F4KP8Z  

   Dial, Roman; Wong, Russell; Wockenfuss, Amy (January 2023, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   This data set represents 23 study sites across 22 degrees of longitude along treeline in Alaska's Brooks Range. Each study site was approximately 50 square kilometers in area and sampled with approximately n = 3,000, randomly-placed 6 meter (m) diameter disks. Each of the 63,224 disks were classified by humans into coarse vegetation classes twice, once using 1970s aerial orthophotos (e.g., Alaska High-Altitude Photography) and again using 2010s very-high resolution satellite imagery (e.g., MAXAR World-View). In addition, annual maximum Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values were extracted from a subset of these disks (n = 27,835 from 12 study sites) for Theil-Sen regression on greening trends using the R package LandsatTS. 

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4. Siberian taiga and tundra fire regimes from 2001–2020

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f07  

   Talucci, Anna C.; Loranty, Michael M.; Alexander, Heather D. (January 2022, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Circum-boreal and -tundra systems are crucial carbon pools that are experiencing amplified warming and are at risk of increasing wildfire activity. Changes in wildfire activity have broad implications for vegetation dynamics, underlying permafrost soils, and ultimately, carbon cycling. However, understanding wildfire effects on biophysical processes across eastern Siberian taiga and tundra remains challenging because of the lack of an easily accessible annual fire perimeter database and underestimation of area burned by MODIS satellite imagery. To better understand wildfire dynamics over the last 20 years in this region, we mapped area burned, generated a fire perimeter database, and characterized fire regimes across eight ecozones spanning 7.8 million km²of eastern Siberian taiga and tundra from ∼61–72.5° N and 100° E–176° W using long-term satellite data from Landsat, processed via Google Earth Engine. We generated composite images for the annual growing season (May–September), which allowed mitigation of missing data from snow-cover, cloud-cover, and the Landsat 7 scan line error. We used annual composites to calculate the difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for each year. The annual dNBR images were converted to binary burned or unburned imagery that was used to vectorize fire perimeters. We mapped 22 091 fires burning 152 million hectares (Mha) over 20 years. Although 2003 was the largest fire year on record, 2020 was an exceptional fire year for four of the northeastern ecozones resulting in substantial increases in fire activity above the Arctic Circle. Increases in fire extent, severity, and frequency with continued climate warming will impact vegetation and permafrost dynamics with increased likelihood of irreversible permafrost thaw that leads to increased carbon release and/or conversion of forest to shrublands. 

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5. Positive response of tree productivity to warming is reversed by increased tree density at the Arctic tundra-taiga ecotone

   https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2020-0466  

   Walker, Xanthe; Alexander, Heather D.; Berner, Logan; Boyd, Melissa A; Loranty, Michael M.; Natali, Sue; Mack, Michelle C. (January 2021, Canadian Journal of Forest Research)

   null (Ed.)

   The transition zone between the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra, known as the tundra-taiga ecotone (TTE) has undergone rapid warming in recent decades. In response to this warming, tree density, growth, and stand productivity are expected to increase. Increases in tree density have the potential to negate the positive impacts of warming on tree growth through a reduction in the active layer and an increase in competitive interactions. We assessed the effects of tree density on tree growth and climate-growth responses of Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) and on trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the TTE of Northeast Siberia. We examined 19 mature forest stands that all established after a fire in 1940 and ranged in tree density from 300 to 37,000 stems ha-1. High density stands with shallow active layers had lower tree growth, higher stand productivity, and more negative growth responses to growing season temperatures compared to low density stands with deep active layers. Variation in stand productivity across the density gradient was not captured by Landsat derived NDVI, but NDVI did capture annual variations in stand productivity. Our results suggest that the expected increases in tree density following fires at the TTE may effectively limit tree growth and that NDVI is unlikely to capture increasing productivity associated with changes in tree density. 

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