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1. The role of land cover change in Arctic-Boreal greening and browning trends

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5429  

   Wang, Jonathan A. ; Friedl, Mark A. ( December 2019 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Many studies have used time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices to identify so-called greening and browning trends across the northern high-latitudes and to suggest that the productivity of Arctic-Boreal ecosystems is changing in response to climate forcing at local and continental scales. However, disturbances that alter land cover are prevalent in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems, and changes in Arctic-Boreal land cover, which complicate interpretation of trends in vegetation indices, have mostly been ignored in previous studies. Here we use a new land cover change dataset derived from Landsat imagery to explore the extent to which land cover and land cover change influence trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over a large (3.76 M km²) area of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, which spans much of northwestern Canada and Alaska. Between 1984 and 2012, 21.2% of the study domain experienced land cover change and 42.7% had significant NDVI trends. Land cover change occurred in 27.6% of locations with significant NDVI trends during this period and resulted in greening and browning rates 48%–128% higher than in areas of stable land cover. While the majority of land cover change areas experienced significant NDVI trends, more than half of areas with stable land cover did not. Further, the extent and magnitude of browning and greening trends varied substantially as a function of land cover class and land cover change type. Forest disturbance from fire and timber harvest drove over one third of statistically significant NDVI trends and created complex mosaics of recent forest loss (as browning) and post-disturbance recovery (as greening) at both landscape and continental scale. Our results demonstrate the importance of land cover changes in highly disturbed high-latitude ecosystems for interpreting trends of NDVI and productivity across multiple spatial scales.

    

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2. Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e26  

   Arndt, Kyle A. ; Santos, Maria J. ; Ustin, Susan ; Davidson, Scott J. ; Stow, Doug ; Oechel, Walter C. ; Tran, Thao T. P. ; Graybill, Brian ; Zona, Donatella ( December 2019 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Many studies have reported that the Arctic is greening; however, we lack an understanding of the detailed patterns and processes that are leading to this observed greening. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to quantify greening, which has had largely positive trends over the last few decades using low spatial resolution satellite imagery such as AVHRR or MODIS over the pan-Arctic region. However, substantial fine scale spatial heterogeneity in the Arctic makes this large-scale investigation hard to interpret in terms of vegetation and other environmental changes. Here we focus on one area of the northern Alaskan Arctic using high spatial resolution (4 m) multispectral satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe^™to analyze the greening trend near Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) over 14 years from 2002 to 2016. We found that tundra vegetation has been greening (τ = 0.65,p = 0.01, NDVI increase of 0.01 yr⁻¹) despite no overall change in vegetation community composition. The greening is most closely correlated to the number of thawing degree days (R² = 0.77,F = 21.5,p < 0.001) which increased in a similar linear trend over the 14 year study period (1.79 ± 0.50 days per year,p < 0.01,τ = −0.56). This suggests that in this Arctic ecosystem, greening is occurring due to a lengthening growing season that appears to stimulate plant productivity without any significant change in vegetation communities. We found that vegetation communities in wetter locations greened about twice as fast as those found in drier conditions supporting the hypothesis that these communities respond more strongly to warming. We suggest that in Arctic environments, vegetation productivity may continue to rise, particularly in wet areas.

    

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3. Multi-Dimensional Remote Sensing Analysis Documents Beaver-Induced Permafrost Degradation, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13234863  

   Jones, Benjamin M. ; Tape, Ken D. ; Clark, Jason A. ; Bondurant, Allen C. ; Ward Jones, Melissa K. ; Gaglioti, Benjamin V. ; Elder, Clayton D. ; Witharana, Chandi ; Miller, Charles E. ( December 2021 , Remote Sensing)

   Beavers have established themselves as a key component of low arctic ecosystems over the past several decades. Beavers are widely recognized as ecosystem engineers, but their effects on permafrost-dominated landscapes in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we document the occurrence, reconstruct the timing, and highlight the effects of beaver activity on a small creek valley confined by ice-rich permafrost on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using multi-dimensional remote sensing analysis of satellite (Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, Planet CubeSat, and DigitalGlobe Inc./MAXAR) and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) imagery. Beaver activity along the study reach of Swan Lake Creek appeared between 2006 and 2011 with the construction of three dams. Between 2011 and 2017, beaver dam numbers increased, with the peak occurring in 2017 (n = 9). Between 2017 and 2019, the number of dams decreased (n = 6), while the average length of the dams increased from 20 to 33 m. Between 4 and 20 August 2019, following a nine-day period of record rainfall (>125 mm), the well-established dam system failed, triggering the formation of a beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature. During the decade of beaver occupation between 2011 and 2021, the creek valley widened from 33 to 180 m (~450% increase) and the length of the stream channel network increased from ~0.6 km to more than 1.9 km (220% increase) as a result of beaver engineering and beaver-induced permafrost degradation. Comparing vegetation (NDVI) and snow (NDSI) derived indices from Sentinel-2 time-series data acquired between 2017 and 2021 for the beaver-induced permafrost degradation feature and a nearby unaffected control site, showed that peak growing season NDVI was lowered by 23% and that it extended the length of the snow-cover period by 19 days following the permafrost disturbance. Our analysis of multi-dimensional remote sensing data highlights several unique aspects of beaver engineering impacts on ice-rich permafrost landscapes. Our detailed reconstruction of the beaver-induced permafrost degradation event may also prove useful for identifying degradation of ice-rich permafrost in optical time-series datasets across regional scales. Future field- and remote sensing-based observations of this site, and others like it, will provide valuable information for the NSF-funded Arctic Beaver Observation Network (A-BON) and the third phase of the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Field Campaign. 

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4. Monitoring tropical forest succession at landscape scales despite uncertainty in Landsat time series

   https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2208  

   Caughlin, T. Trevor ; Barber, Cristina ; Asner, Gregory P. ; Glenn, Nancy F. ; Bohlman, Stephanie A. ; Wilson, Chris H. ( October 2020 , Ecological Applications)

   Forecasting rates of forest succession at landscape scales will aid global efforts to restore tree cover to millions of hectares of degraded land. While optical satellite remote sensing can detect regional land cover change, quantifying forest structural change is challenging. We developed a state‐space modeling framework that applies Landsat satellite data to estimate variability in rates of natural regeneration between sites in a tropical landscape. Our models work by disentangling measurement error in Landsat‐derived spectral reflectance from process error related to successional variability. We applied our modeling framework to rank rates of forest succession between 10 naturally regenerating sites in Southwestern Panama from about 2001 to 2015 and tested how different models for measurement error impacted forecast accuracy, ecological inference, and rankings of successional rates between sites. We achieved the greatest increase in forecasting accuracy by adding intra‐annual phenological variation to a model based on Landsat‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The best‐performing model accounted for inter‐ and intra‐annual noise in spectral reflectance and translated NDVI to canopy height via Landsat–lidar fusion. Modeling forest succession as a function of canopy height rather than NDVI also resulted in more realistic estimates of forest state during early succession, including greater confidence in rank order of successional rates between sites. These results establish the viability of state‐space models to quantify ecological dynamics from time series of space‐borne imagery. State‐space models also provide a statistical approach well‐suited to fusing high‐resolution data, such as airborne lidar, with lower‐resolution data that provides better temporal and spatial coverage, such as the Landsat satellite record. Monitoring forest succession using satellite imagery could play a key role in achieving global restoration targets, including identifying sites that will regain tree cover with minimal intervention.

    

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5. Siberian taiga and tundra fire regimes from 2001–2020

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f07  

   Talucci, Anna C. ; Loranty, Michael M. ; Alexander, Heather D. ( January 2022 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Circum-boreal and -tundra systems are crucial carbon pools that are experiencing amplified warming and are at risk of increasing wildfire activity. Changes in wildfire activity have broad implications for vegetation dynamics, underlying permafrost soils, and ultimately, carbon cycling. However, understanding wildfire effects on biophysical processes across eastern Siberian taiga and tundra remains challenging because of the lack of an easily accessible annual fire perimeter database and underestimation of area burned by MODIS satellite imagery. To better understand wildfire dynamics over the last 20 years in this region, we mapped area burned, generated a fire perimeter database, and characterized fire regimes across eight ecozones spanning 7.8 million km²of eastern Siberian taiga and tundra from ∼61–72.5° N and 100° E–176° W using long-term satellite data from Landsat, processed via Google Earth Engine. We generated composite images for the annual growing season (May–September), which allowed mitigation of missing data from snow-cover, cloud-cover, and the Landsat 7 scan line error. We used annual composites to calculate the difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for each year. The annual dNBR images were converted to binary burned or unburned imagery that was used to vectorize fire perimeters. We mapped 22 091 fires burning 152 million hectares (Mha) over 20 years. Although 2003 was the largest fire year on record, 2020 was an exceptional fire year for four of the northeastern ecozones resulting in substantial increases in fire activity above the Arctic Circle. Increases in fire extent, severity, and frequency with continued climate warming will impact vegetation and permafrost dynamics with increased likelihood of irreversible permafrost thaw that leads to increased carbon release and/or conversion of forest to shrublands.

    

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