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1. Mechanistic theory predicts the effects of temperature and humidity on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses

   https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.65902  

   Morris, Dylan H; Yinda, Kwe Claude; Gamble, Amandine; Rossine, Fernando W; Huang, Qishen; Bushmaker, Trenton; Fischer, Robert J; Matson, M Jeremiah; Van Doremalen, Neeltje; Vikesland, Peter J; et al (April 2021, eLife)

   null (Ed.)

   Ambient temperature and humidity strongly affect inactivation rates of enveloped viruses, but a mechanistic, quantitative theory of these effects has been elusive. We measure the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on an inert surface at nine temperature and humidity conditions and develop a mechanistic model to explain and predict how temperature and humidity alter virus inactivation. We find SARS-CoV-2 survives longest at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities (RH); median estimated virus half-life is >24 hours at 10C and 40% RH, but ~1.5 hours at 27C and 65% RH. Our mechanistic model uses fundamental chemistry to explain why inactivation rate increases with increased temperature and shows a U-shaped dependence on RH. The model accurately predicts existing measurements of five different human coronaviruses, suggesting that shared mechanisms may affect stability for many viruses. The results indicate scenarios of high transmission risk, point to mitigation strategies, and advance the mechanistic study of virus transmission. 

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2. Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0461.1  

   Chen, Jiao; Dai, Aiguo; Zhang, Yaocun; Rasmussen, Kristen L. (March 2020, Journal of Climate)

   Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE. 

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3. Effects of Varying Land Coverage, Rotation Period, and Water Vapor on Equatorial Climates that Bridge the Gap between Earth-like and Titan-like

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0295.1  

   McKinney, M. M.; Mitchell, J.; Thomson, S. I. (July 2022, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Saturn’s largest moon, Titan, has an Earth-like volatile cycle, but with methane playing the role of water and surface liquid reservoirs geographically isolated at high latitudes. We recreate Titan’s characteristic dry hydroclimate at the equator of an Earth-like climate model without seasons and with water as the condensable by varying a small set of planetary parameters. We use three observationally motivated criteria for Titan-like conditions at the equator: 1) the peak in surface specific humidity is not at the equator, despite it having the warmest annual-mean temperatures; 2) the vertical profile of specific humidity in the equatorial column is nearly constant through the lower troposphere; and 3) the relative humidity near the surface at the equator is significantly lower than saturation (lower than 60%). We find that simply reducing the available water at the equator does not fully reproduce Titan-like conditions. We additionally vary the rotation period and volatility of water to mimic Titan’s slower rotation and more abundant methane vapor. Longer rotation periods coupled with a dry equatorial surface meet fewer of the Titan-like criteria than equivalent experiments with shorter rotation periods. Experiments with higher volatility of water meet more criteria than those with lower volatility, with some of those with the highest volatility meeting all three, demonstrating that an Earth-like planet can display Titan-like climatology by changing only a few physical parameters. 

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4. Linearity of Outgoing Longwave Radiation: From an Atmospheric Column to Global Climate Models

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089235  

   Zhang, Yi; Jeevanjee, Nadir; Fueglistaler, Stephan (September 2020, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract The linearity of global‐mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with surface temperature is a basic assumption in climate dynamics. This linearity manifests in global climate models, which robustly produce a global‐mean longwave clear‐sky (LWCS) feedback of 1.9 W/m²/K, consistent with idealized single‐column models (Koll & Cronin, 2018,https//:doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809868115). However, there is considerable spatial variability in the LWCS feedback, including negative values over tropical oceans (known as the “super‐greenhouse effect”) which are compensated for by larger values in the subtropics/extratropics. Therefore, it is unclear how the idealized single‐column results are relevant for the global‐mean LWCS feedback in comprehensive climate models. Here we show with a simple analytical theory and model output that the compensation of this spatial variability to produce a robust global‐mean feedback can be explained by two facts: (1) When conditioned upon free‐tropospheric column relative humidity (RH), the LWCS feedback is independent of RH, and (2) the global histogram of free‐tropospheric column RH is largely invariant under warming. 

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5. The Atmosphere Has Become Increasingly Unstable During 1979–2020 Over the Northern Hemisphere

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106125  

   Chen, Jiao; Dai, Aiguo (October 2023, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract Atmospheric instability affects the formation of convective storms, but how it has changed during recent decades is unknown. Here we analyze the occurrence frequency of stable and unstable atmospheric conditions over land using homogenized radiosonde data from 1979 to 2020. We show that atmospheric stable (unstable) conditions have decreased (increased) significantly by ∼8%–32% (of time) from 1979 to 2020 over most land areas. In boreal summer, the mean positive buoyancy (i.e., convective available potential energy [CAPE]) also increases over East Asia while mean negative buoyancy (i.e., convective inhibition [CIN]) strengthens over Europe and North America from midnight‐dawn for unstable cases. The increased unstable cases and mean CAPE result from increased low‐level specific humidity and air temperature, which increase the buoyancy of a lifted parcel. The stronger CIN results from decreased near‐surface relatively humidity and decreased lapse rate in the lower troposphere. Our results suggest that the atmosphere has become increasingly unstable, which could lead to more convective storms. 

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