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Title: Using high resolution climate models to explore future changes in post-tropical cyclone precipitation
Abstract One of the most costly effects of climate change will be its impact on extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Understanding these changes is of growing importance, and high resolution global climate models are providing potential for such studies, specifically for TCs. Beyond the difficulties associated with TC behavior in a warming climate, the extratropical transition (ET) of TCs into post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) creates another challenge when understanding these events and any potential future changes. PTCs can produce excessive rainfall despite losing their original tropical characteristics. The present study examines the representation of PTCs and their precipitation in three high resolution (25–50 km) climate models: CNRM, MRI, and HadGEM. All three of these models agree on a simulated decrease in TC and PTC events in the future warming scenario, yet they lack consistency in simulated regional patterns of these changes, which is further evident in regional changes in PTC-related precipitation. The models also struggle with their represented intensity evolution of storms during and after the ET process. Despite these limitations in simulating intensity and regional characteristics, the models all simulate a shift toward more frequent rain rates above 10 mm h−1in PTCs. These high rain rates become 4%–12% more likely in the warmer climate scenario, resulting in a 5%–12% increase in accumulated rainfall from these rates.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2244917
PAR ID:
10491331
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Publisher / Repository:
IOP Publishing
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Volume:
19
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1748-9326
Page Range / eLocation ID:
024042
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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