skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Increasing Flood Hazard Posed by Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in a Changing Climate
Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo rapid intensification (RI) before landfall are notoriously difficult to predict and have caused tremendous damage to coastal regions in the United States. Using downscaled synthetic TCs and physics‐based models for storm tide and rain, we investigate the hazards posed by TCs that rapidly intensify before landfall under both historical and future mid‐emissions climate scenarios. In the downscaled synthetic data, the percentage of TCs experiencing RI is estimated to rise across a significant portion of the North Atlantic basin. Notably, future climate warming causes large increases in the probability of RI within 24 hr of landfall. Also, our analysis shows that RI events induce notably higher rainfall hazard levels than non‐RI events with equivalent TC intensities. As a result, RI events dominate increases in 100‐year rainfall and storm tide levels under climate change for most of the US coastline.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2103754
PAR ID:
10499604
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Online Library
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
51
Issue:
5
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; (, Earth's Future)
    Abstract Prediction of the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for improving disaster preparedness against storm hazards. These events can cause extensive damage to coastal areas if occurring close to landfall. Available models struggle to provide accurate RI estimates due to the complexity of underlying physical mechanisms. This study provides new insights into the prediction of a subset of rapidly intensifying TCs influenced by prolonged ocean warming events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHWs could provide sufficient energy to supercharge TCs. Preconditioning by MHW led to RI of recent destructive TCs, Otis (2023), Doksuri (2023), and Ian (2022), with economic losses exceeding $150 billion. Here, we analyze the TC best track and sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2023 to identify hotspot regions for compound events, where MHWs and RI of tropical cyclones occur concurrently or in succession. Building upon this, we propose an ensemble machine learning model for RI forecasting based on storm and MHW characteristics. This approach is particularly valuable as RI forecast errors are typically largest in favorable environments, such as those created by MHWs. Our study offers insight into predicting MHW TCs, which have been shown to be stronger TCs with potentially higher destructive power. Here, we show that using MHW predictors instead of the conventional method of using sea surface temperature reduces the false alarm rate by 30%. Overall, our findings contribute to coastal hazard risk awareness amidst unprecedented climate warming causing more frequent MHWs. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Climate)
    Abstract In this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; (, Earth's Future)
    Coastal flooding from tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced storm surges is among the most devastating natural hazards in the US. Accurately quantifying storm surge hazards is crucial for risk mitigation and climate adaptation. In this study, we conduct climatology‐hydrodynamic modeling to estimate TC surge hazards along the US northeast coastline under future climate scenarios. In this methodology, we generate synthetic TCs for the northeastern US to drive a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) to simulate storm surges. Observing their significant effect on storm surge, for the first time, we bias‐correct landfall angles of synthetic TCs, in addition to bias‐correcting their frequency and intensity. Our findings show that under the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change, historical 100‐year extreme water levels (EWLs) along the US northeast coastline would occur annually at the end of the century in both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 emissions scenarios. 500‐year EWLs are also projected to occur every 1–60 (1–20) years under SSP2‐4.5 (SSP5‐8.5). SLR is the dominant factor in the dramatic changes in the EWLs. However, while in higher latitudes () TC climatology change modestly affect EWLs ( contribution for 100‐year and for 500‐year EWL changes), in lower latitudes the impact is more significant (up to 40% contribution to 100‐year and 55% for 500‐year EWL changes). Extending previous methods, the physics‐based probabilistic framework presented here can be applied to project future coastal flood hazards under the effects of SLR and storm climatology change for any TC‐prone region. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; (, Nature Climate Change)
    Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall–surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5–8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7–36-fold in the southern US and 30–195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; (, Frontiers in Climate)
    Coastal flooding poses the greatest threat to human life and is often the most common source of damage from coastal storms. From 1980 to 2020, the top 6, and 17 of the top 25, costliest natural disasters in the U.S. were caused by coastal storms, most of these tropical systems. The Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, two of the largest and most densely populated estuaries in the U.S. located in the Mid-Atlantic coastal region, have been significantly impacted by strong tropical cyclones in recent decades, notably Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Current scenarios of future climate project an increase in major hurricanes and the continued rise of sea levels, amplifying coastal flooding threat. We look at all North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC) in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database that came within 750 km of the Delmarva Peninsula from 1980 to 2019. For each TC, skew surge and storm tide are computed at 12 NOAA tide gauges throughout the two bays. Spatial variability of the detrended and normalized skew surge is investigated through cross-correlations, regional storm rankings, and comparison to storm tracks. We find Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Isabel (2003) had the largest surge impact on the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay, respectively. Surge response to TCs in upper and lower bay regions are more similar across bays than to the opposing region in their own bay. TCs that impacted lower bay more than upper bay regions tended to stay offshore east of Delmarva, whereas TCs that impacted upper bay regions tended to stay to the west of Delmarva. Although tropical cyclones are multi-hazard weather events, there continues to be a need to improve storm surge forecasting and implement strategies to minimize the damage of coastal flooding. Results from this analysis can provide insight on the potential regional impacts of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Text Encoded Conversion
  • XML
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email