Basal area is a key measure of forest stocking and an important proxy of forest productivity in the face of climate change. Black walnut ( Juglans nigra ) is one of the most valuable timber species in North America. However, little is known about how the stocking of black walnut would change with differed bioclimatic conditions under climate change. In this study, we projected the current and future basal area of black walnut. We trained different machine learning models using more than 1.4 million tree records from 10,162 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) sample plots and 42 spatially explicit bioclimate and other environmental attributes. We selected random forests (RF) as the final model to estimate the basal area of black walnut under climate change because RF had a higher coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), lower root mean square error (RMSE), and lower mean absolute error (MAE) than the other two models (XGBoost and linear regression). The most important variables to predict basal area were the mean annual temperature and precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, topology, and human footprint. Under two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5), the RF model projected that black walnut stocking would increase in the northern part of the current range in the USA by 2080, with a potential shift of species distribution range although uncertainty still exists due to unpredictable events, including extreme abiotic (heat, drought) and biotic (pests, disease) occurrences. Our models can be adapted to other hardwood tree species to predict tree changes in basal area based on future climate scenarios.
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Measurement uncertainty in a national forest inventory: results from the northern region of the USA
Statistical confidence in estimates of timber volume, carbon storage, and other forest attributes depends, in part, on the uncertainty in field measurements. Surprisingly, measurement uncertainty is rarely reported, even though national forest inventories routinely repeat field measurements for quality assurance. We compared measurements made by field crews and quality assurance crews in the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the U.S. Forest Service, using data from 2790 plots and 51 740 trees and saplings across the 24 states of the Northern Region. We characterized uncertainty in 12 national core tree-level variables; seven tree crown variables used in forest health monitoring; three variables describing seedlings; and 11 variables describing the site, such as elevation, slope, and distance from a road. Discrepancies in measurement were generally small but were higher for some variables requiring judgment, such as tree class, decay class, and cause of mortality. When scaled up to states, forest types, or the region, uncertainties in basal area, timber volume, and aboveground biomass were negligible. Understanding all sources of uncertainty is important to designing forest monitoring systems, managing the conduct of the inventory, and assessing the uncertainty of forest attributes required for making regional and national forest policy decisions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1637685
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10491984
- Publisher / Repository:
- Canadian Science Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Canadian Journal of Forest Research
- Volume:
- 53
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0045-5067
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 163 to 177
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Measuring and modelling the shape of tree stems is a fundamental component of forest inventory systems for both commercial and biological purposes. The change in diameter of the stem along its length (a.k.a. 'taper') is one of the most important and widely used means of predicting tree stem volume. Until recently, the options for obtaining accurate estimates of stem taper and developing stem taper models have been limited to measurements of felled trees or the use of optical dendrometers on standing live trees. Here, we tested both a tripod-mounted terrestrial laser scanner (TLS; a Focus 3D 120 of FARO Technologies, Inc., Lake Mary, FL, USA), and a mobile laser scanner (MLS; the ZEB1 of the GeoSLAM Ltd, Nottingham, UK) to measure tree diameters at various heights along the stem of 20 destructively harvested broadleaf and needleleaf species using the outer hull modelling method, for the purpose of developing individual-tree and species-specific taper models. Laser scanner specifications were a major factor determining stem taper measurement accuracy. The longer-range, low beam divergence TLS could estimate stem diameter to an average of 15.7 m above ground (about 79 per cent of the canopy height), while the shorter-range high beam divergence MLS could estimate an average of 11.5 m above ground (about 45 per cent of the canopy height). Stem taper error increased with respect to height above ground, with the TLS providing more consistent and reliable diameter measurements (root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.93 cm; 9.57 per cent) compared with the MLS (RMSE = 2.59 cm; 12.84 per cent), but both methods were nearly unbiased. We attribute ~60 per cent of the uncertainty in stem measurements to laser beam diameter and point density, showing positive and negative correlations, respectively. MLS was unable to converge on the two tested taper models but was found to be an efficient means of easily sampling diameters at breast height (DBH) and reconstructing stem maps in simple forest stands with trees greater than ~10 cm DBH. TLS provided precision stem diameter measurements that allowed for the creation of similar taper models for three out of the four study species. Future work should focus on evaluating MLS systems with improved specifications (e.g. beam divergence and range), since these instruments will likely lead to dramatic improvements in reliable estimates of forest inventory parameters, in line with the current TLS technology.
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null (Ed.)Abstract Tree size-density dynamics can inform key trends in forest productivity along with opportunities to increase ecosystem resiliency. Here, we employ a novel approach to estimate the relative density (RD, range 0–1) of any given forest based on its current size-density relationship compared to a hypothetical maximum using the coterminous US national forest inventory between 1999 and 2020. The analysis suggests a static forest land area in the US with less tree abundance but greatly increased timber volume and tree biomass. Coupled with these resource trends, an increase in RD was identified with 90% of US forest land now reaching a biologically-relevant threshold of canopy closure and/or self-thinning induced mortality (RD > 0.3), particularly in areas prone to future drought conditions (e.g., West Coast). Notably, the area of high RD stands (RD > 0.6) has quintupled over the past 20 years while the least stocked stands (RD < 0.3) have decreased 3%. The evidence from the coterminous US forest RD distribution suggest opportunities to increase live tree stocking in understocked stands, while using density management to address tree mortality and resilience to disturbances in increasingly dense forests.more » « less
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Abstract Questions What are the primary biotic and abiotic factors driving composition and abundance of naturally regenerated tree seedlings across forest landscapes of Maine? Do seedling species richness (
SR ) and density (SD ) decrease with improved growing conditions (climate and soil), but increase with increased diversity of overstorey composition and structure? Does partial harvesting disproportionately favour relative dominance of shade‐intolerant hardwoods (PIHD ) over shade‐tolerant softwoods (PTSD )?Location Forest landscapes across the diverse eco‐regions and forest types of Maine,
USA .Methods This study used
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2022-0062
