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1. Trinity IV: predictions for supermassive black holes at z ≳ 6

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stae1447  

   Zhang, Haowen; Behroozi, Peter; Volonteri, Marta; Silk, Joseph; Fan, Xiaohui; Aird, James; Yang, Jinyi; Wang, Feige; Tee, Wei Leong; Hopkins, Philip F (June 2024, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT We present predictions for the high-redshift halo–galaxy–supermassive black hole (SMBH) connection from the Trinity model. Matching a comprehensive compilation of galaxy (0 ≤ z ≤ 13) and SMBH data sets (0 ≤ z ≤ 6.5), Trinity finds: (1) The number of SMBHs with M• > 109 M⊙ in the observable Universe increases by five orders of magnitude from z ∼ 10 to z ∼ 2, and by another factor of ∼3 from z ∼ 2 to z = 0; (2) The M• > 109 and 1010 M⊙ SMBHs at z ∼ 6 live in haloes with ∼(2 − 3) and (3 − 5) × 1012 M⊙; (3) the newly discovered JWST AGN candidates at 7 ≲ z ≲ 11 are overmassive compared to the intrinsic SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation from Trinity, but they are still broadly consistent with Trinity predictions for flux limited AGN samples with Lauer bias. This bias favours the detection for overmassive SMBHs due to higher luminosities at a fixed Eddington ratio. However UHZ1’s M•/M* ratio is still some 1 dex higher than Trinity AGNs, indicating a discrepancy; (4) Trinity underpredicts the number densities of GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 analogues. But given the strong constraints from existing data in Trinity, the extra constraint from GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 does not significantly change trinity model results. (5) z = 6–10 quasar luminosity functions will reduce uncertainties in the trinity prediction of the z = 6–10 SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation by up to ∼0.5 dex. These luminosity functions will be available with future telescopes, such as Roman and Euclid. 

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2. Supermassive black hole growth in massive galaxies at Cosmic Dawn

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stag1129  

   Sunseri, James; Andalman, Zachary L; Teyssier, Romain (June 2026, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT Among the emerging excess of massive, bright galaxies at Cosmic Dawn $$z \gtrsim 9$$ seen by the James Webb Space Telescope, several exhibit spectral features associated with active galactic nuclei (AGNs). These AGN candidates suggest that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) grow rapidly in the early Universe. In a series of numerical experiments, we investigate how SMBHs grow within and influence the most massive galaxies at Cosmic Dawn using cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations run with the adaptive mesh refinement code ramses. Our suite of simulations explores how super-Eddington accretion, seed mass, and the strength of feedback influence SMBH–galaxy co-evolution in the most massive galaxies ($$M_\star \gtrsim 10^8 M_\odot$$) of the early Universe ($$z \sim 15 \mathrm{ -} 9$$). The environment which our numerical experiments reside in is an overdensity that collapses into a $$\sim 10^{11} M_\odot$$ halo by $$z \sim 9$$. Within this type of environment we find that SMBH growth is sensitive to stellar feedback which generates a turbulent-multiphase interstellar medium that stochastically starves the SMBH. In the absence of AGN feedback, we find that the SMBH is starved $$\sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of the time after the onset of star formation in the galaxy. SMBH growth can become self-regulated by AGN feedback if the SMBH becomes massive enough, either by accretion or seeding, for its feedback to dominate the surrounding nuclear region. We find no evidence of galaxy-scale, AGN-driven quenching in the star formation rate across all simulations in our suite. 

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3. Tracking the Assembly of Supermassive Black Holes: A Comparison of Diverse Models across Cosmic Time

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae2fb1  

   Porras-Valverde, Antonio J; Ricarte, Angelo; Natarajan, Priyamvada; Somerville, Rachel S; Gabrielpillai, Austen; Yung, L_Y Aaron (February 2026, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Galaxies grow alongside central supermassive black holes (SMBHs) through fueling and feedback. However, the origins of this coevolution remain unclear and vary across modeling frameworks. Using semianalytic models (SAMs), we trace SMBH mass assembly acrossM_BH ∼ 10⁶⁻¹⁰M_⊙. We find significant discrepancies between observations and physics-based models of the local black hole mass function (BHMF), likely from differences in the stellar mass function and scaling relations used to infer the BHMF. Most physics-based models agree atz ∼ 1–4 and broadly match the JWST broad-line active galactic nucleus (AGN) BHMFs atz = 4–5. These models also reproduce the observed bolometric AGN luminosity evolution, except the SAMDark Sage, which predicts an excess. Interestingly, this pronounced “knee” in the bolometric AGN luminosity function predicted byDark SagearoundL_bol ∼ 10⁴⁶erg s⁻¹is consistent with the inferred abundance and luminosity of “little red dots” atz = 5–6, under the assumption that they are powered entirely by AGN activity. In contrast to other models,Dark Sagedeploys multiple growth channels for SMBHs that include mergers, hot-mode accretion, merger-driven cold-accretion, and secular-instability-driven accretion. We analyze the black hole mass buildup and accretion histories inDark Sage, which, unlike other models, also allows for super-Eddington accretion, and we find that, on average, SMBHs primarily grow through secular disk instabilities and merger-driven cold gas accretion modes. We also find that black hole mergers contribute the majority of the growth of ∼60% of the total mass budget only for the most massive SMBHs byz= 0. 

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4. The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa3164  

   Behroozi, Peter; Conroy, Charlie; Wechsler, Risa H; Hearin, Andrew; Williams, Christina C; Moster, Benjamin P; Yung, L Y; Somerville, Rachel S; Gottlöber, Stefan; Yepes, Gustavo; et al (November 2020, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   null (Ed.)

   ABSTRACT The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 107 M⊙ and/or M1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 107 M⊙ or M1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M1500 = −17 down to M1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online. 

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5. The inefficiency of stellar feedback in driving galactic outflows in massive galaxies at high redshift

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stad2617  

   Bassini, Luigi; Feldmann, Robert; Gensior, Jindra; Hayward, Christopher C; Faucher-Giguère, Claude-André; Cenci, Elia; Liang, Lichen; Bernardini, Mauro (September 2023, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT Recent observations indicate that galactic outflows are ubiquitous in high-redshift (high-z) galaxies, including normal star-forming galaxies, quasar hosts, and dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). However, the impact of outflows on the evolution of their hosts is still an open question. Here, we analyse the star-formation histories and galactic outflow properties of galaxies in massive haloes ($$10^{12}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }\ \lt\ M_{\rm vir}\ \lt\ 5\times 10^{12}\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$) at z ≳ 5.5 in three zoom-in cosmological simulations from the MassiveFIRE suite, as part of the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. The simulations were run with the FIRE-2 model, which does not include feedback from active galactic nuclei. The simulated galaxies resemble z > 4 DSFGs, with star-formation rates of $$\sim\!{1000}\ {\rm M}_{\odot }\, \rm yr^{-1}$$ and molecular gas masses of Mmol ∼ 1010 M⊙. However, the simulated galaxies are characterized by higher circular velocities than those observed in high-z DSFGs. The mass loading factors from stellar feedback are of the order of ∼0.1, implying that stellar feedback is inefficient in driving galactic outflows and gas is consumed by star formation on much shorter time-scales than it is expelled from the interstellar medium. We also find that stellar feedback is highly inefficient in self-regulating star formation in this regime, with an average integrated star formation efficiency (SFE) per dynamical time of 30 per cent. Finally, compared with FIRE-2 galaxies hosted in similarly massive haloes at lower redshift, we find lower mass loading factors and higher SFEs in the high-z sample. We argue that both effects originate from the higher total and gas surface densities that characterize high-z massive systems. 

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