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This content will become publicly available on December 1, 2024

Title: Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model

We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack–McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984 · · · occurs atR0=2.151. In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics withR0near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination.

 
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Award ID(s):
1917819
NSF-PAR ID:
10492638
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Volume:
20
Issue:
209
ISSN:
1742-5662
Page Range / eLocation ID:
20230322
Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
["epidemiology","SIR model","overshoot"]
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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