An official website of the United States government
Navigating conflict is integral to decision-making, serving a central role both in the subjective experience of choice as well as contemporary theories of how we choose. However, the lack of a sensitive, accessible, and interpretable metric of conflict has led researchers to focus on choice itself rather than how individuals arrive at that choice. Using mouse-tracking—continuously sampling computer mouse location as participants decide—we demonstrate the theoretical and practical uses of dynamic assessments of choice from decision onset through conclusion. Specifically, we use mouse tracking to index conflict, quantified by the relative directness to the chosen option, in a domain for which conflict is integral: decisions involving risk. In deciding whether to accept risk, decision makers must integrate gains, losses, status quos, and outcome probabilities, a process that inevitably involves conflict. Across three preregistered studies, we tracked participants’ motor movements while they decided whether to accept or reject gambles. Our results show that 1) mouse-tracking metrics of conflict sensitively detect differences in the subjective value of risky versus certain options; 2) these metrics of conflict strongly predict participants’ risk preferences (loss aversion and decreasing marginal utility), even on a single-trial level; 3) these mouse-tracking metrics outperform participants’ reaction times in predicting risk preferences; and 4) manipulating risk preferences via a broad versus narrow bracketing manipulation influences conflict as indexed by mouse tracking. Together, these results highlight the importance of measuring conflict during risky choice and demonstrate the usefulness of mouse tracking as a tool to do so.
more »
« less
How to ask twenty questions and win: Machine learning tools for assessing preferences from small samples of willingness-to-pay prices
Subjective value has long been measured using binary choice experiments, yet responses like willingness-to-pay prices can be an effective and efficient way to assess individual differences risk preferences and value. Tony Marley’s work illustrated that dynamic, stochastic models permit meaningful inferences about cognition from process-level data on paradigms beyond binary choice, yet many of these models remain difficult to use because their likelihoods must be approximated from simulation. In this paper, we develop and test an approach that uses deep neural networks to estimate the parameters of otherwise-intractable behavioral models. Once trained, these networks allow for accurate and instantaneous parameter estimation. We compare different network architectures and show that they accurately recover true risk preferences related to utility, response caution, anchoring, and non-decision processes. To illustrate the usefulness of the approach, it was then applied to estimate model parameters for a large, demographically representative sample of U.S. participants who completed a 20-question pricing task — an estimation task that is not feasible with previous methods. The results illustrate the utility of machine-learning approaches for fitting cognitive and economic models, providing efficient methods for quantifying meaningful differences in risk preferences from sparse data.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2237119
- PAR ID:
- 10494255
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Choice Modelling
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 1755-5345
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 100418
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Fernandes, Thiago P. (Ed.)Individuals typically prefer the freedom to make their own decisions. Yet, people often trade their own decision control (procedural utility) to gain economic security (outcome utility). Decision science has not reconciled these observations. We examined how decision-makers’ efficacy and security perceptions influence when, why, and how individuals exchange procedural and outcome utility. Undergraduate adults ( N = 77; M age = 19.45 years; 73% female; 62% Caucasian, 13% African American) were recruited from the psychology participant pool at a midwestern U.S. metropolitan university. Participants made financial decisions in easy and hard versions of a paid card task resembling a standard gambling task, with a learning component. During half the trials, they made decisions with a No-Choice Manager who controlled their decisions, versus a Choice Manager who granted decision control. The hard task was designed to be too difficult for most participants, undermining their efficacy and security, and ensuring financial losses. The No-Choice Manager was designed to perform moderately well, ensuring financial gains. Participants felt greater outcome satisfaction (utility) for financial gains earned via Choice, but not losses. Participants (85%) preferred the Choice manager in the easy task but preferred the No-Choice Manager (56%) in the hard task. This change in preference for choice corresponded with self-efficacy and was mediated by perceived security. We used Decision Field Theory to develop potential cognitive models of these decisions. Preferences were best described by a model that assumed decision-makers initially prefer Choice, but update their preference based on loss-dependent attentional focus. When they earned losses (hard task), decision-makers focused more on economic payoffs (financial security), causing them to deemphasize procedural utility. Losses competed for attention, pulling attention toward economic survivability and away from the inherent value of choice. Decision-makers are more likely to sacrifice freedom of choice to leaders they perceive as efficacious to alleviate perceived threats to economic security.more » « less
-
This article surveys the development of nonparametric models and methods for estimation of choice models with nonlinear budget sets. The discussion focuses on the budget set regression, that is, the conditional expectation of a choice variable given the budget set. Utility maximization in a nonparametric model with general heterogeneity reduces the curse of dimensionality in this regression. Empirical results using this regression are different from maximum likelihood and give informative inference. The article also considers the information provided by kink probabilities for nonparametric utility with general heterogeneity. Instrumental variable estimation and the evidence it provides of heterogeneity in preferences are also discussed.more » « less
-
System identification poses a significant bottleneck to characterizing and controlling complex systems. This challenge is greatest when both the system states and parameters are not directly accessible, leading to a dual-estimation problem. Current approaches to such problems are limited in their ability to scale with many-parameter systems, as often occurs in networks. In the current work, we present a new, computationally efficient approach to treat large dual-estimation problems. In this work, we derive analytic back-propagated gradients for the Prediction Error Method which enables efficient and accurate identification of large systems. The PEM approach consists of directly integrating state estimation into a dual-optimization objective, leaving a differentiable cost/error function only in terms of the unknown system parameters, which we solve using numerical gradient/Hessian methods. Intuitively, this approach consists of solving for the parameters that generate the most accurate state estimator (Extended/Cubature Kalman Filter). We demonstrate that this approach is at least as accurate in state and parameter estimation as joint Kalman Filters (Extended/Unscented/Cubature) and Expectation-Maximization, despite lower complexity. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by inverting anatomically-detailed individualized brain models from human magnetoencephalography (MEG) data.more » « less
-
Suweis, Samir (Ed.)Statistical network models have been used to study the competition among different products and how product attributes influence customer decisions. However, in existing research using network-based approaches, product competition has been viewed as binary (i.e., whether a relationship exists or not), while in reality, the competition strength may vary among products. In this paper, we model the strength of the product competition by employing a statistical network model, with an emphasis on how product attributes affect which products are considered together and which products are ultimately purchased by customers. We first demonstrate how customers’ considerations and choices can be aggregated as weighted networks. Then, we propose a weighted network modeling approach by extending the valued exponential random graph model to investigate the effects of product features and network structures on product competition relations. The approach that consists of model construction, interpretation, and validation is presented in a step-by-step procedure. Our findings suggest that the weighted network model outperforms commonly used binary network baselines in predicting product competition as well as market share. Also, traditionally when using binary network models to study product competitions and depending on the cutoff values chosen to binarize a network, the resulting estimated customer preferences can be inconsistent. Such inconsistency in interpreting customer preferences is a downside of binary network models but can be well addressed by the proposed weighted network model. Lastly, this paper is the first attempt to study customers’ purchase preferences (i.e., aggregated choice decisions) and car competition (i.e., customers’ co-consideration decisions) together using weighted directed networks.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100418
