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This paper presents a variational Bayesian inference Neural Network (BNN) approach to quantify uncertainties in matrix function estimation for the state-space linear parameter-varying (LPV) model identification problem using only inputs/outputs data. The proposed method simultaneously estimates states and posteriors of matrix functions given data. In particular, states are estimated by reaching a consensus between an estimator based on past system trajectory and an estimator by recurrent equations of states; posteriors are approximated by minimizing the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between the parameterized posterior distribution and the true posterior of the LPV model parameters. Furthermore, techniques such as transfer learning are explored in this work to reduce computational cost and prevent convergence failure of Bayesian inference. The proposed data-driven method is validated using experimental data for identification of a control-oriented reactivity controlled compression ignition (RCCI) engine model.
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Bayesian variable selection for matrix autoregressive models
Abstract A Bayesian method is proposed for variable selection in high-dimensional matrix autoregressive models which reflects and exploits the original matrix structure of data to (a) reduce dimensionality and (b) foster interpretability of multidimensional relationship structures. A compact form of the model is derived which facilitates the estimation procedure and two computational methods for the estimation are proposed: a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and a scalable Bayesian EM algorithm. Being based on the spike-and-slab framework for fast posterior mode identification, the latter enables Bayesian data analysis of matrix-valued time series at large scales. The theoretical properties, comparative performance, and computational efficiency of the proposed model is investigated through simulated examples and an application to a panel of country economic indicators.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2152746
- PAR ID:
- 10494975
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Science + Business Media
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Statistics and Computing
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0960-3174
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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